IA - Siena College/NYT Upshot: Ernst +1%

[jamestroll]

soybean bump

This man is a prophet:

I can't wait until she makes some "gaffe" that only Dem hacks care about like in 2014 (or like Cramer's "Akin comments" this year) and everyone moves it to toss up/lean D.

(Yes, Ernst could lose, but seat 49 or 50 for Democrats this is not.)

Exactly

[jamestroll]

Jesus christ.. one poll with Ernst up and everyone is moving it to SAFE R? lmao.


Its a toss up race that Democrats will win (as of my current prediction) but it will be after they win AZ, CO, ME and NC.

[jamestroll]

Jesus christ.. one poll with Ernst up and everyone is moving it to SAFE R? lmao.


Its a toss up race that Democrats will win (as of my current prediction) but it will be after they win AZ, CO, ME and NC.

I don't see anyone moving it to Safe R. Don't conflate that with people who are mocking Sabato for making the premature jump to Lean D.

I have it as Tilt D not lean D. Essentially a toss up. I just believe Greenfield will win it.

The Ernst discussion has been hilarious this entire cycle and I always saw she was not taking the race seriously. If she was taking it semi-seriously she wouldn't have had much trouble winning at all.

But I am quite certain if Greenfield wins she will be the one federally elected Democrat from Iowa in January 2023 and possibly the only statewide Democrat in office. Unless one of the down ballot dems wins re-election.