IA - Siena College/NYT Upshot: Ernst +1%

[Mr.Phips]

I’m going to be honest, I don’t know what Sabato is thinking moving this to lean D. Personally, I think Greenfield wins, but if she ends up losing he’s going to have a truckload of egg on his face.

Even if Ernst wins, we’ll get 1 1/2 years of this...

"Why Republicans are right to fret over Abby Finkenauer's entry into the Iowa Senate race"

- Analysis by Chris Cillizza

"Finkenauer in: Iowa Senate from Lean R to Tossup"

- Analysis by Larry Sabato

And then she loses by 10-11 points.

She’d be an idiot to run in a Biden midterm.

This, even if both Biden and Greenfield win it this year, the state will clearly be right of the nation and such a state isn't winnable in a Biden midterm, but I foresee to everyone yelling "but 2020" in 2022, if both of them do actually win. On the other hand, even if both lose, some red avatars here will still insist "it's just not gone yet." Honestly, it reminds of the Republicans' refusal to admit VA and CO are gone for them.

Reminds me of people in 2010 who said Ellsworth could win because Obama carried Indiana by a point in 2008.  Midterm environments are completely different than a Presidential year. 

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

To everyone panicking about this poll, finish your North Carolina before you start your Iowa.

You can't eat your soybeans, if ye don't eat your pork. Yes!

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Iowa Senator by Siena Research Institute on 2020-10-20

Summary: D: 44%, R: 45%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details