IA - Monmouth: TIED (high turnout: Greenfield +2%, low turnout: Greenfield +6%) (user search)
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  IA - Monmouth: TIED (high turnout: Greenfield +2%, low turnout: Greenfield +6%) (search mode)
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Author Topic: IA - Monmouth: TIED (high turnout: Greenfield +2%, low turnout: Greenfield +6%)  (Read 1283 times)
Sestak
jk2020
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Posts: 13,284
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« on: October 21, 2020, 10:35:11 AM »

Not a great poll for Greenfield, given IA polling, but it's very odd that both high and low turnout are more favorable to Greenfield than... normal turnout.

RV is not normal turnout Huh
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Sestak
jk2020
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Posts: 13,284
Ukraine


« Reply #1 on: October 21, 2020, 10:42:52 AM »

Not a great poll for Greenfield, given IA polling, but it's very odd that both high and low turnout are more favorable to Greenfield than... normal turnout.

RV is not normal turnout Huh

Yes, but it's strange that both turnout numbers are more favorable for Greenfield, while the RV number is a tie. This would seem to imply that if turnout isn't especially low or high (i.e. normal turnout) that we'd expect it to be better for Ernst, which is... odd.

Not really. Generally both LV screens include less people than the RV pool. However, according to the pollster here, a substantial number of Biden/Greenfield voters (more than Trump/Ernst ones) have reported that they have already voted, which automatically gets them included into the stricter screens even if they otherwise wouldn't be.

The RV number includes people who they don't expect to vote even in the high turnout scenario; so it can almost be considered a "higher turnout" one?
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