Will Trump Improve his DC Perfomance in 2020 ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Trump did horribly in dc barley edging out Gary Johnson for second place with 4% of the vote compared to Clintons 91%. Recent polls have shown some improvement showing him to as much as 12%.  The city has however been at the heart of the #resistance with protests and the use of federal law enforcement common.

Will Trump improve his performance ?

[Turbo Flame]

Maybe just a smidge but that's it.

[Bootes Void]

maybe a dead cat bounce but will be meaningless

[One Term Floridian]

I don’t even think he’ll improve here, but If he does it’s probably due to the protests causing disruptions in the city.

[morgankingsley]

By improve, getting 5 or 6 is possible I guess, but Biden will still get over 90

[Senator Incitatus]

Relative to the nation, probably. See the other thread on this topic:

Added trends, because I was curious whether the presumed incumbent factor (since incumbents staff agencies and otherwise affect culture in the city) really exists. Trends toward incumbent administration parties are in bold. Uncertain but definitely appears plausible, deserves further research.

Year   Democratic   Republican      Swing       Trend
1964   85.5% 169,796   14.5% 28,801 (N/A)        (N/A)
1968   81.8% 139,566   18.2% 31,012 (R+7.4)    (D+15.88)
1972   78.1% 127,627   21.6% 35,226 (R+3.35)  (D+19.4)
1976   81.6% 137,818   16.5% 27,873 (D+5.1)    (R+20.11)
1980   74.9% 130,231   13.4% 26,218 (R+3.6)    (D+8.18)
1984   85.4% 180,408   13.7% 29,009 (D+10.2)  (D+18.67)
1988   82.6% 159,407   14.3% 27,590 (R+3.4)    (R+13.89)
1992   84.6% 192,619   9.1% 20,698   (D+7.2)    (R+6.08)
1996   85.2% 158,220   9.3% 17,339   (D+0.4)    (R+2.55)
2000   85.2% 171,923   9.0% 18,073   (D+0.3)    (D+8.3)
2004   89.0% 202,970   9.3% 21,256   (D+3.5)    (D+0.53)
2008   92.5% 245,800   6.5% 17,367   (D+6.3)    (R+3.43)
2012   90.9% 267,070   7.3% 21,381   (R+2.4)    (D+1.01)
2016   90.9% 282,830   4.1% 12,723   (D+3.2)    (D+9.15)

The big outliers are 1972 (McGovern was a uniquely good fit for the capital?) and 1984 (Anderson voters moving to Mondale, probably).

[MATTROSE94]

By improve, getting 5 or 6 is possible I guess, but Biden will still get over 90

Washington DC is probably 85-15 in favor of Joe Biden, so a 11% swing in favor of Donald Trump when compared to 2016.

[LabourJersey]

By improve, getting 5 or 6 is possible I guess, but Biden will still get over 90

Washington DC is probably 85-15 in favor of Joe Biden, so a 11% swing in favor of Donald Trump when compared to 2016.

There is absolutely, positively no way that Trump will get FIFTEEN PERCENT of the vote in Washington DC.

[SuperCow]

If you start with nothing, the only way to go is up.

[Calthrina950]

By improve, getting 5 or 6 is possible I guess, but Biden will still get over 90

Washington DC is probably 85-15 in favor of Joe Biden, so a 11% swing in favor of Donald Trump when compared to 2016.

There is absolutely, positively no way that Trump will get FIFTEEN PERCENT of the vote in Washington DC.

The last Republican to even reach 15% in Washington D.C. was Gerald Ford in 1976. And as for the answer to this question, Trump did receive a higher percentage (5.40%) in D.C. last year than he did in 2016 (4.09%), and the District swung his way by a trifling 0.02%. Biden obviously got a higher percentage (92.15%) than Clinton (90.86%). This is the second highest percentage a Democrat has received in the District, behind only Obama's 92.46% in 2008.