OH-10/GHY (D) - Biden +5

[Badger]

Any OH experts have insights on what this swing would mean? What are the demographics of this district?

Basically swingy Dayton + Safe R suburban Greene(not trending D)
+ some Titanium R rural counties. Fairly reasonable district and nothing too ugly compared to the rest of the Ohio Map. Some people complain it doesn't have springfield but I see no reason why Springfield would need to be dumped in first.

Was like Romney +2 and Trump +7. Relatively similar to Wisconsin 1st or Washington 8th if I had to compare it.

Its a touch left of the state now in 2016 but in 2018 I think due to Dewine's hometown effect it was quite a bit to the right

Suburban Greene County, in areas like Beavercreek at least, I understand have been at least mildly, perhaps at least relatively, shifting democratic.

Joe Biden needs to win a district like this by a margin like this. As noted, a + 11 shift Statewide would give him a narrow Victory. The problem is at least the predominantly black District in Cleveland realistically doesn't have room to shift + 11 more democratic, in the Columbus Democrats vote sink District likewise would have a difficult time growing that much. which would shrink the Statewide percentage a bit to make it a true horse race.

[Badger]

I think this would be a signal that Biden is winning Ohio by somewhere around Obama's win in 2012. Biden probably does have to win OH-10 if he's to have a chance at winning the state, unlike Obama 2012. At the CD level, he probably has to win that plus OH-01.

Joe Biden needs to win a district like this by a margin like this. As noted, a + 11 shift Statewide would give him a narrow Victory. The problem is at least the predominantly black District in Cleveland realistically doesn't have room to shift + 11 more democratic, in the Columbus Democrats vote sink District likewise would have a difficult time growing that much. which would shrink the Statewide percentage a bit to make it a true horse race.

Trump won the state by about 8%, so an 11% swing could make up for ground elsewhere. You also have to figure in turnout as well. I'm not sure what the population is for each district, but I imagine OH-06 is well below the median district and OH-03 and OH-12 are well above it. I was looking at both Brown and DeWine's wins in 2018. Brown managed to win 9/16 districts on a 7% win, which is rather impressive considering how strong the gerrymander is. I don't think Biden can cut into Trump's margins anywhere near what Brown did in many of those predominantly rural districts like OH-06 and OH-04. Clinton won OH-03 by 38% and Brown won it by 48%. Biden will probably have to win it by at least Brown's margin, if not win it by more than 50%. Biden needs to be pushing 70% (or nearing a 40% win) in Franklin County to win Ohio.

I don't think Biden can win Ohio with 4/16 like Obama did in 2012, but I think he can with 6/16. He'll need to keep OH-12 very close, probably within 3% at most. I'd also keep a close on OH-14, a more suburban district with a good amount of Obama/Trump voters. Biden doesn't have to win there (if he does, it's easily over), but if he keeps it within 5%, I think he'll win statewide.

Fwiw, since I was asked my opinion on the ground earlier, I do believe that if Biden doesn't win Franklin County by 40 points, he'll at least come close