OH-10/GHY (D) - Biden +5

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1318732105837350912?s=20

[philly09]

Ticket splitting?

[Roll Roons]

Ticket splitting?

Despite what people say, it still exists

[redjohn]

Any OH experts have insights on what this swing would mean? What are the demographics of this district?

[Bootes Void]

11 point shift in Ohio

[DrScholl]

Turner has always outrun the top of the ticket mainly because he was once mayor of Dayton, although he did lose that seat. I'm guessing if things are bad enough Trump could drag him down and the fact that Desiree Tims is black could help increase black turnout in Dayton.

[Tekken_Guy]

If this is true, then it's over for Trump.

[lfromnj]

Any OH experts have insights on what this swing would mean? What are the demographics of this district?

Basically swingy Dayton + Safe R suburban Greene(not trending D)
+ some Titanium R rural counties. Fairly reasonable district and nothing too ugly compared to the rest of the Ohio Map. Some people complain it doesn't have springfield but I see no reason why Springfield would need to be dumped in first.

Was like Romney +2 and Trump +7. Relatively similar to Wisconsin 1st or Washington 3rd if I had to compare it.

Its a touch left of the state now in 2016 but in 2018 I think due to Dewine's hometown effect it was quite a bit to the right

[Buzz]

Hook, Line, anddddd sinker

[KaiserDave]

Hook, Line, anddddd sinker

Even if this is 5 points off it’s great news for Biden

[S019]

This is on DCCC's Red to Blue and was an odd add at first, but now it makes sense, though this is still a reach seat and probably one of the three toughest R to B seats. Tossup for President, Lean/Likely R for House

[Devils30]

Trump cannot collapse in a district like this one and have any chance. It is not highly educated or trending D prior to 2020 (even if not R trending as fast as others nearby).

[Badger]

Any OH experts have insights on what this swing would mean? What are the demographics of this district?

Basically swingy Dayton + Safe R suburban Greene(not trending D)
+ some Titanium R rural counties. Fairly reasonable district and nothing too ugly compared to the rest of the Ohio Map. Some people complain it doesn't have springfield but I see no reason why Springfield would need to be dumped in first.

Was like Romney +2 and Trump +7. Relatively similar to Wisconsin 1st or Washington 8th if I had to compare it.

Its a touch left of the state now in 2016 but in 2018 I think due to Dewine's hometown effect it was quite a bit to the right

Suburban Greene County, in areas like Beavercreek at least, I understand have been at least mildly, perhaps at least relatively, shifting democratic.

Joe Biden needs to win a district like this by a margin like this. As noted, a + 11 shift Statewide would give him a narrow Victory. The problem is at least the predominantly black District in Cleveland realistically doesn't have room to shift + 11 more democratic, in the Columbus Democrats vote sink District likewise would have a difficult time growing that much. which would shrink the Statewide percentage a bit to make it a true horse race.

[politicallefty]

I think this would be a signal that Biden is winning Ohio by somewhere around Obama's win in 2012. Biden probably does have to win OH-10 if he's to have a chance at winning the state, unlike Obama 2012. At the CD level, he probably has to win that plus OH-01.

Joe Biden needs to win a district like this by a margin like this. As noted, a + 11 shift Statewide would give him a narrow Victory. The problem is at least the predominantly black District in Cleveland realistically doesn't have room to shift + 11 more democratic, in the Columbus Democrats vote sink District likewise would have a difficult time growing that much. which would shrink the Statewide percentage a bit to make it a true horse race.

Trump won the state by about 8%, so an 11% swing could make up for ground elsewhere. You also have to figure in turnout as well. I'm not sure what the population is for each district, but I imagine OH-06 is well below the median district and OH-03 and OH-12 are well above it. I was looking at both Brown and DeWine's wins in 2018. Brown managed to win 9/16 districts on a 7% win, which is rather impressive considering how strong the gerrymander is. I don't think Biden can cut into Trump's margins anywhere near what Brown did in many of those predominantly rural districts like OH-06 and OH-04. Clinton won OH-03 by 38% and Brown won it by 48%. Biden will probably have to win it by at least Brown's margin, if not win it by more than 50%. Biden needs to be pushing 70% (or nearing a 40% win) in Franklin County to win Ohio.

I don't think Biden can win Ohio with 4/16 like Obama did in 2012, but I think he can with 6/16. He'll need to keep OH-12 very close, probably within 3% at most. I'd also keep a close on OH-14, a more suburban district with a good amount of Obama/Trump voters. Biden doesn't have to win there (if he does, it's easily over), but if he keeps it within 5%, I think he'll win statewide.

[Badger]

I think this would be a signal that Biden is winning Ohio by somewhere around Obama's win in 2012. Biden probably does have to win OH-10 if he's to have a chance at winning the state, unlike Obama 2012. At the CD level, he probably has to win that plus OH-01.

Joe Biden needs to win a district like this by a margin like this. As noted, a + 11 shift Statewide would give him a narrow Victory. The problem is at least the predominantly black District in Cleveland realistically doesn't have room to shift + 11 more democratic, in the Columbus Democrats vote sink District likewise would have a difficult time growing that much. which would shrink the Statewide percentage a bit to make it a true horse race.

Trump won the state by about 8%, so an 11% swing could make up for ground elsewhere. You also have to figure in turnout as well. I'm not sure what the population is for each district, but I imagine OH-06 is well below the median district and OH-03 and OH-12 are well above it. I was looking at both Brown and DeWine's wins in 2018. Brown managed to win 9/16 districts on a 7% win, which is rather impressive considering how strong the gerrymander is. I don't think Biden can cut into Trump's margins anywhere near what Brown did in many of those predominantly rural districts like OH-06 and OH-04. Clinton won OH-03 by 38% and Brown won it by 48%. Biden will probably have to win it by at least Brown's margin, if not win it by more than 50%. Biden needs to be pushing 70% (or nearing a 40% win) in Franklin County to win Ohio.

I don't think Biden can win Ohio with 4/16 like Obama did in 2012, but I think he can with 6/16. He'll need to keep OH-12 very close, probably within 3% at most. I'd also keep a close on OH-14, a more suburban district with a good amount of Obama/Trump voters. Biden doesn't have to win there (if he does, it's easily over), but if he keeps it within 5%, I think he'll win statewide.

Fwiw, since I was asked my opinion on the ground earlier, I do believe that if Biden doesn't win Franklin County by 40 points, he'll at least come close

[BlueSwan]

It's kind of interesting. National polling has been great for Biden. District polling has generally been amazing for Biden. Swing state polling only lukewarm for Biden, compared to national polls and district polls.

[wbrocks67]

It's kind of interesting. National polling has been great for Biden. District polling has generally been amazing for Biden. Swing state polling only lukewarm for Biden, compared to national polls and district polls.

It really just goes to high quality state polling or not. We haven't gotten a ton of it and thus have to rely on crappier polls.

The polls on Ohio have been consistent though. This lines up with Ohio being a tossup/Biden +1

[politicallefty]

Fwiw, since I was asked my opinion on the ground earlier, I do believe that if Biden doesn't win Franklin County by 40 points, he'll at least come close

And how do you think the state is going to end up? I’m thinking he needs to do better than Brown in Franklin County because he won’t/can’t do as well as Brown in the eastern half of the state (particularly the Southeast).

It's kind of interesting. National polling has been great for Biden. District polling has generally been amazing for Biden. Swing state polling only lukewarm for Biden, compared to national polls and district polls.

That’s basically almost the opposite of 2016. Back then, it was many of the underlying district polls that were showing what was eventually going to happen. Apart from some strong polling for Clinton after the debates and Access Hollywood, the national polling was mediocre for her. It was always the state polling that was her strongest area, especially in the Midwestern freiwal.

[pbrower2a]

Trump has done little for the Rust Belt.