From 1940 to 1988 Michigan and Wisconsin always voted opposite in non-landslides

[E-Dawg]

1940: Michigan voted for Willkie, Wisconsin for Roosevelt
1944: Michigan voted for Roosevelt, Wisconsin for Dewey
1948: Michigan voted for Dewey, Wisconsin for Truman
1960: Michigan voted for Kennedy, Wisconsin for Nixon
1968: Michigan voted for Humphrey, Wisconsin for Nixon
1976: Michigan voted for Ford, Wisconsin for Carter.
1988: Michigan voted for Bush, Wisconsin for Dukakis.

The only elections in which they voted together were the landslides of 1952, 1956, 1964, 1972, 1980, 1984.

I don't how to explain which switching back and forth in the 1940s, that is bizarre to me. In 1960 and 1968 Michigan seemed to simply be a more Democratic state, so that makes sense. Michigan in 1976 makes sense due to Ford having a huge boost in Michigan due to his favorite son effect. 1988 makes sense due to the farm crises hitting Wisconsin worse.

Anyone want to explain 1940, 1944, 1948?

[Agonized-Statism]

Roosevelt narrowly carried Wisconsin on unionized Scandinavian-Americans while Wilkie had a stronger favorite son Midwestern appeal elsewhere in 1940, 1944 was powerful isolationist sentiment in rural Wisconsin while Michigan was benefiting from wartime industry, and Henry Wallace was a spoiler for Truman in Michigan in 1948.

[E-Dawg]

Roosevelt narrowly carried Wisconsin on unionized Scandinavian-Americans while Wilkie had a stronger favorite son Midwestern appeal elsewhere in 1940, 1944 was powerful isolationist sentiment in rural Wisconsin while Michigan was benefiting from wartime industry, and Henry Wallace was a spoiler for Truman in Michigan in 1948.

Why would Wisconsin have had the increased isolationist sentiment for a Republican win in 1944 when the war was extremely popular and seen as necessary, but not in 1940 when the idea of entering the war was highly controversial? And what caused Truman to outperform Roosevelt 4 years later in the state despite Truman being much less popular nationwide?

[Agonized-Statism]

Roosevelt narrowly carried Wisconsin on unionized Scandinavian-Americans while Wilkie had a stronger favorite son Midwestern appeal elsewhere in 1940, 1944 was powerful isolationist sentiment in rural Wisconsin while Michigan was benefiting from wartime industry, and Henry Wallace was a spoiler for Truman in Michigan in 1948.

Why would Wisconsin have had the increased isolationist sentiment for a Republican win in 1944 when the war was extremely popular and seen as necessary, but not in 1940 when the idea of entering the war was highly controversial? And what caused Truman to outperform Roosevelt 4 years later in the state despite Truman being much less popular nationwide?

Wisconsin always had some opposition to the war effort and was pretty close in 1940, but the Republicans were more weakened by the Progressive Party at that point. Conservative German counties needed the New Deal before the war but saw Communism as a greater threat to the country than Nazism, and with the nation's fortunes improved enough as a result of the war effort for them to start voting for foreign policy first, they finally broke for Dewey four years later[1]. Four years after that, Cold Warrior Truman swung some of those voters back[2].

[1] Phillips; The Emerging Republican Majority, pp. 387-388
[2] These people are violently irrational anti-communists, see Joe McCarthy

[TDAS04]

Ohio and Michigan were the same way, except for 1988.

[E-Dawg]

Roosevelt narrowly carried Wisconsin on unionized Scandinavian-Americans while Wilkie had a stronger favorite son Midwestern appeal elsewhere in 1940, 1944 was powerful isolationist sentiment in rural Wisconsin while Michigan was benefiting from wartime industry, and Henry Wallace was a spoiler for Truman in Michigan in 1948.

Why would Wisconsin have had the increased isolationist sentiment for a Republican win in 1944 when the war was extremely popular and seen as necessary, but not in 1940 when the idea of entering the war was highly controversial? And what caused Truman to outperform Roosevelt 4 years later in the state despite Truman being much less popular nationwide?

Wisconsin always had some opposition to the war effort and was pretty close in 1940, but the Republicans were more weakened by the Progressive Party at that point. Conservative German counties needed the New Deal before the war but saw Communism as a greater threat to the country than Nazism, and with the nation's fortunes improved enough as a result of the war effort for them to start voting for foreign policy first, they finally broke for Dewey four years later[1]. Four years after that, Cold Warrior Truman swung some of those voters back[2].

[1] Phillips; The Emerging Republican Majority, pp. 387-388
[2] These people are violently irrational anti-communists, see Joe McCarthy

Thanks for explaining!

[SingingAnalyst]

For what it's worth, Ohio also voted the opposite of MI, and the same as WI, in 1940-1944-1948. I believe all 9 margins were rather narrow.