MT-MSU: Gianforte +5
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  MT-MSU: Gianforte +5
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Author Topic: MT-MSU: Gianforte +5  (Read 792 times)
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Junior Chimp
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« on: October 14, 2020, 10:18:30 AM »

Gianforte 47%
Cooney 42%

https://www.ktvh.com/news/election-2020/msu-poll-bullock-rosendale-gianforte-leading-slightly-trump-up-by-7-in-mt
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #1 on: October 14, 2020, 10:20:40 AM »

Damn I like Cooney
Hm
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #2 on: October 14, 2020, 10:22:43 AM »


There was only one acceptable Mike 2020 and he's a statewide officeholder in another mountain west state.

Mid-September to October 2
1615 likely voters
MoE: 3.9%

Lymon Bishop (L) 4%
Undecided 7%
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Xing
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« Reply #3 on: October 14, 2020, 10:30:06 AM »

Yikes. I doubt there's a seven-point gap between this and the Senate race, but it's not looking good for Cooney.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: October 14, 2020, 10:32:30 AM »

Yikes. I doubt there's a seven-point gap between this and the Senate race, but it's not looking good for Cooney.

Consider toplines as well as margins. This race has the highest percentage of undecided voters out of any polled this time around (with the exception of the ballot initiative), so there's plenty of room for a fightback.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #5 on: October 14, 2020, 10:35:54 AM »

Yikes. I doubt there's a seven-point gap between this and the Senate race, but it's not looking good for Cooney.

Consider toplines as well as margins. This race has the highest percentage of undecided voters out of any polled this time around (with the exception of the ballot initiative), so there's plenty of room for a fightback.

Eh, the writing on the wall is there. Montana will have its first Republican governor since 2005 Sad
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #6 on: October 14, 2020, 10:38:50 AM »

Yikes. I doubt there's a seven-point gap between this and the Senate race, but it's not looking good for Cooney.

Consider toplines as well as margins. This race has the highest percentage of undecided voters out of any polled this time around (with the exception of the ballot initiative), so there's plenty of room for a fightback.

Eh, the writing on the wall is there. Montana will have its first Republican governor since 2005 Sad

If "the writing is on the wall" with a lead of 45% to 40% then you may as well write off Collins, Tillis, James, etc. (and Trump's reelection bid months ago). Gianforte is decently favoured in my view (a firm lean R) but Cooney has a semi-decent chance of turning it around and the party/donors would be stupid to triage it. It's important to note that final margins tend to mean less in non-federal races because voters tend to have a bit more flexibility that far downballot and so there are more people open to persuasion who might end up breaking heavily for one candidate in the final stretch.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #7 on: October 14, 2020, 10:41:18 AM »

Yikes. I doubt there's a seven-point gap between this and the Senate race, but it's not looking good for Cooney.

Consider toplines as well as margins. This race has the highest percentage of undecided voters out of any polled this time around (with the exception of the ballot initiative), so there's plenty of room for a fightback.

Eh, the writing on the wall is there. Montana will have its first Republican governor since 2005 Sad

If "the writing is on the wall" with a lead of 45% to 40% then you may as well write off Collins, Tillis, James, etc. (and Trump's reelection bid months ago). Gianforte is decently favoured in my view (a firm lean R) but Cooney has a semi-decent chance of turning it around and the party/donors would be stupid to triage it. It's important to note that final margins tend to mean less in non-federal races because voters tend to have a bit more flexibility that far downballot and so there are more persuadable voters.

I mean we shouldn't triage, I want to stand and fight here....but I think Collins, Tillis, James and, Trump are all going to lose...sooooo

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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #8 on: October 14, 2020, 10:53:51 AM »
« Edited: October 14, 2020, 01:08:45 PM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

MSU Bozeman poll to be found here: https://helpslab.montana.edu/index.html

September 14-October 2
The Libertarian is actually at less than 2% in this poll with the total "Other" vote including them summing to 4%.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #9 on: October 14, 2020, 11:07:15 AM »

At least Williams and Cooney won’t have to hang their heads in shame because they could only win by appealing to the lowest common denominator.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #10 on: October 14, 2020, 11:19:20 AM »

At least Williams and Cooney won’t have to hang their heads in shame because they could only win by appealing to the lowest common denominator.

Don't worry, Cooney will shoot a television in an ad soon and the populists Purple heart will love it


And also so will I, because it's cool


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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #11 on: October 14, 2020, 11:21:03 AM »

At least Williams and Cooney won’t have to hang their heads in shame because they could only win by appealing to the lowest common denominator.

If Cooney loses without even going to the effort of delivering the October Surprise flat top haircut, he should hang his head in shame anyway.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #12 on: October 14, 2020, 12:31:55 PM »

Safe R
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #13 on: October 14, 2020, 12:34:45 PM »

At least Williams and Cooney won’t have to hang their heads in shame because they could only win by appealing to the lowest common denominator.

Don't worry, Cooney will shoot a television in an ad soon and the populists Purple heart will love it


And also so will I, because it's cool





Bullock was the popular one, Cooney wasn't, and neither was Walsh, both his LT Govs
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Sir Mohamed 🇺🇸 🇺🇦
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« Reply #14 on: October 17, 2020, 11:13:53 AM »

Yup, it looks like Dems are finally running out of luck with MT-gov races. I think Cooney is too much seen as a career politican, and MT voters for some reason prefer their #populist heroes. Lean R.
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Badger
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« Reply #15 on: October 20, 2020, 11:23:17 AM »

Yikes. I doubt there's a seven-point gap between this and the Senate race, but it's not looking good for Cooney.

Consider toplines as well as margins. This race has the highest percentage of undecided voters out of any polled this time around (with the exception of the ballot initiative), so there's plenty of room for a fightback.

Eh, the writing on the wall is there. Montana will have its first Republican governor since 2005 Sad

And Gianforte no less. Ugh!
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #16 on: October 20, 2020, 11:37:53 AM »

Yikes. I doubt there's a seven-point gap between this and the Senate race, but it's not looking good for Cooney.

Consider toplines as well as margins. This race has the highest percentage of undecided voters out of any polled this time around (with the exception of the ballot initiative), so there's plenty of room for a fightback.

Eh, the writing on the wall is there. Montana will have its first Republican governor since 2005 Sad

And Gianforte no less. Ugh!

Ugh!!!!
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