50+ voters in PA (AARP/Benenson): Biden +3

[VAR]

Oct 13-15, 683 LV, MoE: 3.8%

Changes with Sept 8 poll

Biden 50% (n/c)
Trump 47% (+1)

https://menafn.com/1100982141/New-AARP-Pennsylvania-Presidential-Poll-Continues-to-Show-Tight-Race-Among-50-Voters

[EJ24]

We've seen this nationally, and now we see it on the state level.

This is a nightmare for Trump. The senior backlash is real.

[It’s so Joever]

For a second, I thought it was a poll of 51 voters.

[Rand]

In lieu of fake polls and considering fundamentals while factoring in shy Trump voters I’m pretty sure this will be the final result.

[GeorgiaModerate]

In lieu of fake polls and considering fundamentals while factoring in shy Trump voters I’m pretty sure this will be the final result.

You forgot Greenland.

[ultraviolet]

The new poll has former Vice-President Biden (50%) still holding a small lead over President Trump (47%) among the state's 50+ voters.

This made me laugh out loud until I realized what it meant.

[Gass3268]

The fact this includes 50-65 year olds, Trump's best age demographic, makes this a pretty bad poll for Trump.

[wbrocks67]

Trump won 50+ year olds in PA by about 9 in 2016, so this is very, very bad for him.

[indietraveler]

Ouch. Even if this poll is off the results would still be terrible from Trump.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Dave Wasserman posted an interesting chart this morning showing the averages in different demographic groups over the last few months and the final 2016 polls.  The thing that jumps out is that Trump is doing pretty close to his 2016 average among most groups, but Biden is doing significantly better than Clinton's averages in the same groups.  The glaring exception is age 65+, which has gone from 49-44 Trump to 53-44 Biden.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1318555816195203074

[TheLaRocca]

Dave Wasserman posted an interesting chart this morning showing the averages in different demographic groups over the last few months and the final 2016 polls.  The thing that jumps out is that Trump is doing pretty close to his 2016 average among most groups, but Biden is doing significantly better than Clinton's averages in the same groups.  The glaring exception is age 65+, which has gone from 49-44 Trump to 53-44 Biden.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1318555816195203074

White non-college: +11 D Swing
White College: +8 D Swing
Hispanic: +8 R Swing
Black: +1 D Swing
18-34: +19 D Swing
65+: +16 D Swing
Men: +4 D Swing
Women: +9 D Swing

based on margins last time in polling...

[President Johnson]

For a second, I thought it was a poll of 51 voters.

Actually I thought 50k voters and got a little worried Joe Biden is only up three with a massive sample size.

[Ferguson97]

White non-college: +11 D Swing
White College: +8 D Swing
Hispanic: +8 R Swing
Black: +1 D Swing
18-34: +19 D Swing
65+: +16 D Swing
Men: +4 D Swing
Women: +9 D Swing

based on margins last time in polling...

I plugged these margins into the Cook swing-o-meter and it gives the Biden 413 map.

[Progressive Pessimist]

For a second, I thought it was a poll of 51 voters.

I read it that way too and was ready to dismiss it as the most pointless poll ever commissioned.