Reuters/Ipsos: Biden +7 in MI, +3 in NC
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  Reuters/Ipsos: Biden +7 in MI, +3 in NC		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: Reuters/Ipsos: Biden +7 in MI, +3 in NC  (Read 1788 times)
VAR
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« on: October 20, 2020, 02:51:08 PM »
MI:
Biden 51% (n/c)
Trump 44% (+1)

NC:
Biden 49% (+1)
Trump 46% (-1)

https://nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pmn/biden-leads-trump-in-michigan-race-statistically-even-in-north-carolina-reuters-ipsos-poll
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #1 on: October 20, 2020, 02:52:01 PM »
Probably pretty close to final margins within a few points.
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Buzz
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« Reply #2 on: October 20, 2020, 02:54:53 PM »
North Carolina is becoming more worrisome by the day for the GOP.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #3 on: October 20, 2020, 02:56:24 PM »
« Edited: October 20, 2020, 03:03:14 PM by Penn_Quaker_Girl »
Quote from: Buzz on October 20, 2020, 02:54:53 PM
North Carolina is becoming more worrisome by the day for the GOP.

Trump just can't seem to get above that 45-47% mark.  It will still be a close result, but he's just not finding that extra push he needs.  
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #4 on: October 20, 2020, 03:02:23 PM »
« Edited: October 20, 2020, 03:40:21 PM by TiltsAreUnderrated »
October 14-20
Changes with October 7-13

MI
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2020-10/topline_reuters_michigan_state_poll_w4_10_20_2020.pdf

686 likely voters
MoE: 4.3% for likely voters

Biden 51% (n/c)
Trump 44% (+1)
Some other candidate 3% (n/c)
Would not vote 0% (n/c)
Not sure 2% (n/c)

Five-way ballot:

Biden 52% (+1)
Trump 44% (n/c)
Jorgensen 2% (n/c)
Some other candidate 2% (+1)
Hawkins 0% (-1)
West 0% (-1)
Would not vote 0% (n/c)

NC
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2020-10/topline_reuters_north_carolina_state_poll_w4_10_20_20.pdf

660 likely voters
MoE: 4.3% for likely voters

Biden 49% (+1)
Trump 46% (-1)
Some other candidate 2% (-1)
Would not vote 0% (n/c)
Not sure 2% (-1)

Five-way ballot:

Biden 49% (+1)
Trump 47% (-1)
Hawkins 1% (+1)
Jorgensen 1% (-1)
Some other candidate 1% (n/c)
West 0% (n/c)
Would not vote 0% (n/c)
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Buzz
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« Reply #5 on: October 20, 2020, 03:02:44 PM »
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on October 20, 2020, 02:56:24 PM
Quote from: Buzz on October 20, 2020, 02:54:53 PM
North Carolina is becoming more worrisome by the day for the GOP.

Trump just can't seem to get above that 45-47% mark.  It will still be a close result, but he's just not finding that extra push he needs.  

*Also, is there a reason why you didn't include the other states polled here, VAR? (PA, FL, etc.)
I had NC being the closest state in 2016 and was very wrong.  For that reason alone I’m not convinced that Trump is losing here, but these polls have been terrible for him.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #6 on: October 20, 2020, 03:04:10 PM »
Quote from: Buzz on October 20, 2020, 03:02:44 PM
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on October 20, 2020, 02:56:24 PM
Quote from: Buzz on October 20, 2020, 02:54:53 PM
North Carolina is becoming more worrisome by the day for the GOP.

Trump just can't seem to get above that 45-47% mark.  It will still be a close result, but he's just not finding that extra push he needs.  

*Also, is there a reason why you didn't include the other states polled here, VAR? (PA, FL, etc.)
I had NC being the closest state in 2016 and was very wrong.  For that reason alone I’m not convinced that Trump is losing here, but these polls have been terrible for him.
I think NC is harder to poll and predict because it has 2-3 metros in the state that vary in terms of their partisanship, as opposed to 1 major metro, such as in your state, that has an obvious degree of partisanship.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #7 on: October 20, 2020, 03:05:50 PM »
Solid numbers.

I'm 98% certain Michigan will flip and 80% North Carolina does. Trump has barely been ahead in any poll in the latter, which is a bad sign.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #8 on: October 20, 2020, 03:06:44 PM »
I'm about ready to move NC to Lean R.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #9 on: October 20, 2020, 03:06:57 PM »
Both look basically reasonable.
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Buzz
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« Reply #10 on: October 20, 2020, 03:09:15 PM »
Quote from: President Johnson on October 20, 2020, 03:05:50 PM
Solid numbers.

I'm 98% certain Michigan will flip and 80% North Carolina does. Trump has barely been ahead in any poll in the latter, which is a bad sign.
Trump led in only 4/30 of last NC polls in 2016.  Tillis only led in 1/10 of the last NC polls in 2014.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #11 on: October 20, 2020, 03:09:41 PM »
Quote from: Buzz on October 20, 2020, 03:09:15 PM
Quote from: President Johnson on October 20, 2020, 03:05:50 PM
Solid numbers.

I'm 98% certain Michigan will flip and 80% North Carolina does. Trump has barely been ahead in any poll in the latter, which is a bad sign.
Trump led in only 4/30 of last NC polls in 2016.  Tillis only led in 1/10 of the last NC polls in 2014.

Barely anyone polled NC-SEN in 2014
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EJ24
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« Reply #12 on: October 20, 2020, 03:10:13 PM »
Quote from: Buzz on October 20, 2020, 03:09:15 PM
Quote from: President Johnson on October 20, 2020, 03:05:50 PM
Solid numbers.

I'm 98% certain Michigan will flip and 80% North Carolina does. Trump has barely been ahead in any poll in the latter, which is a bad sign.
Trump led in only 4/30 of last NC polls in 2016.  Tillis only led in 1/10 of the last NC polls in 2014.

I love how some people on this forum act as if 2016 is the only election to ever happen.
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EJ24
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« Reply #13 on: October 20, 2020, 03:10:37 PM »
Trump hasn't led in a single poll from NC since 9/25.
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Buzz
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« Reply #14 on: October 20, 2020, 03:14:28 PM »
Quote from: EJ24 on October 20, 2020, 03:10:13 PM
Quote from: Buzz on October 20, 2020, 03:09:15 PM
Quote from: President Johnson on October 20, 2020, 03:05:50 PM
Solid numbers.

I'm 98% certain Michigan will flip and 80% North Carolina does. Trump has barely been ahead in any poll in the latter, which is a bad sign.
Trump led in only 4/30 of last NC polls in 2016.  Tillis only led in 1/10 of the last NC polls in 2014.

I love how some people on this forum act as if 2016 is the only election to ever happen.
I literally have 2014 election data in my post you copied. 
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TheLaRocca
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« Reply #15 on: October 20, 2020, 03:19:42 PM »
Knowing Michigan's history we are looking at a 51-52% Biden win (Trump sweeps undecideds).

Do we not remember 2018?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #16 on: October 20, 2020, 03:27:56 PM »
Hillary Clinton never broke over 50% in any North Carolina poll in 2016, 11 different pollsters have shown Biden between 50-53.
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Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.
Nathan
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« Reply #17 on: October 20, 2020, 03:29:35 PM »

Did you have it at Likely R before?
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ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
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« Reply #18 on: October 20, 2020, 03:35:12 PM »
NC is Tilt D.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #19 on: October 20, 2020, 03:36:06 PM »

He's being sarcastic
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #20 on: October 20, 2020, 03:40:23 PM »
I've updated my post with details from fuller releases, which can be found here for MI and here for NC.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #21 on: October 20, 2020, 03:42:30 PM »
Quote from: TheLaRocca on October 20, 2020, 03:19:42 PM
Knowing Michigan's history we are looking at a 51-52% Biden win (Trump sweeps undecideds).

Do we not remember 2018?

James/Schuette gained on average 1.75% compared to the RCP average (538 doesn't have 2018 averages). That's not exactly sweeping the undecideds, especially when they appear to be overwhelmingly African American.
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Hammy
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« Reply #22 on: October 20, 2020, 03:43:51 PM »
Quote from: Buzz on October 20, 2020, 03:09:15 PM
Quote from: President Johnson on October 20, 2020, 03:05:50 PM
Solid numbers.

I'm 98% certain Michigan will flip and 80% North Carolina does. Trump has barely been ahead in any poll in the latter, which is a bad sign.
Trump led in only 4/30 of last NC polls in 2016.  Tillis only led in 1/10 of the last NC polls in 2014.

Trump was gaining in 2016 in the final three weeks in the polling average FWIW. It's been up and down the the trend line has been downhill since September. These are not good polls for Trump, and it's looking like it'll be a harder state for him to keep though he'll probably eek out a win in the end.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #23 on: October 20, 2020, 03:45:12 PM »

Correct. Smiley  I've also had it at Tilt D, although I think you could make a case for Lean D at this point.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #24 on: October 20, 2020, 04:39:06 PM »
These Reuters/Ipsos state polls have been trash, so I couldn't care less what they say at this point.
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