TX (Cygnal): Cornyn +8
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  TX (Cygnal): Cornyn +8
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Author Topic: TX (Cygnal): Cornyn +8  (Read 735 times)
VAR
VARepublican
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« on: October 20, 2020, 01:09:21 PM »
« edited: October 20, 2020, 01:25:20 PM by VARepublican »

Oct 18-19, 600 LV, MoE: 4%

Cornyn (R-inc) 49%
Hegar (D) 41%
McKennon (L) 3%
Collins (G) 1%
Undecided 7%

Generic ballot: 50-43 R (+7)

Favorabilities:
Abbott: 51/42 (+9)
Cornyn: 45/36 (+9)
Hegar: 37/25 (+12)
OíRourke: 42/49 (-7)

https://www.cygn.al/cygnal-poll-cornyn-leads-hegar-by-eight-points/
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SevenEleven
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« Reply #1 on: October 20, 2020, 01:12:53 PM »

Damn, I really wanted to see Cornyn go down this year. Beto should have ran for this seat instead of his disastrous presidential campaign.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #2 on: October 20, 2020, 01:15:02 PM »

Letís see what they show for the Presidential results.
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Old School Republican
Computer89
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« Reply #3 on: October 20, 2020, 01:16:16 PM »

Reaganite Texas is still hanging on
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #4 on: October 20, 2020, 01:20:45 PM »

A) this is an R pollster
B) this pollster only has Warner down like 7 in VA
C) its TX

I wouldn't put too much stock into this.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #5 on: October 20, 2020, 01:24:05 PM »

The (R) doesn't mean much here. It's not for a partisan sponsor and Cygnal is otherwise about as (R) as PPP is (D). It's a good firm.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #6 on: October 20, 2020, 01:24:55 PM »

If Cornyn was up 8, he would not be trying to run away from Trump as he's been doing recently.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #7 on: October 20, 2020, 01:27:23 PM »

They have the GCB at 50R-43D so Hegar's underperformance isn't even that notable in terms of margin in this poll.
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Gracile
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« Reply #8 on: October 20, 2020, 01:27:26 PM »

That generic ballot margin is hard to believe (no way the GOP would outperform their 2018 vote shares when a handful of Republican-held districts are far more competitive than they were two years ago). It makes me think this whole sample is too R-friendly.
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Primary the Squad
Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #9 on: October 20, 2020, 01:28:24 PM »

I think this is probably a bit generous, but this race does feel like Lean R. Hegar and McGrath are only getting over the line if there's a true tsunami.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #10 on: October 20, 2020, 01:31:53 PM »

I think this is probably a bit generous, but this race does feel like Lean R. Hegar and McGrath are only getting over the line if there's a true tsunami.

In terms of competitiveness, Hegar and McGrath are not in remotely similar races. Even if you take the Cornyn margins at face value, all Hegar needs to do to make up most of the ground required is ride Biden's coattails; McGrath needs to run ahead, and not just by depressing Biden's vote-share with pro-Trump ads.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #11 on: October 20, 2020, 01:40:38 PM »

A bit dissapointing; want to see what they got for Presidential numbers.
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SevenEleven
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« Reply #12 on: October 20, 2020, 01:42:55 PM »

Sure, it's one poll, but you want to see Hegar tied or down just a bit at this point. Jaime Harrison is polling the way Hegar needs to be to have a chance.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #13 on: October 20, 2020, 01:46:56 PM »

Lean Republican.

As I said a thousand times: Beto should have run for this seat rather than for president. Hegar isn't a bad candidate, but not as good as Beto was. Jaime Harrison has definitely a better shot than her (albeit Graham deserving a loss more than Cornyn).
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #14 on: October 20, 2020, 03:56:07 PM »

Undecided will break for Hegar. Next...
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #15 on: October 20, 2020, 03:58:37 PM »

The (R) doesn't mean much here. It's not for a partisan sponsor and Cygnal is otherwise about as (R) as PPP is (D). It's a good firm.

It's a little suspicious that they seem to have chosen not to poll the Presidential race and led the poll with the Senate race instead. PPP is sometimes good and sometimes blatantly partisan; same can be true for Cygnal.

Also, "Ready Education Network" is a pro-charter school organization with strong Republican Party ties (from the lead on their website: "Ready Education Network is a coalition of conservatives fighting for better schools and more parental choice in education"). It is a partisan sponsor.

https://readyeducation.org/about-us/
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Sestak
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« Reply #16 on: October 20, 2020, 03:59:58 PM »

Hold on, since when is Cygnal "a good firm" regardless of whether it's (R) or not?

Cygnal is and always has been a joke. Come on now. Gimme a J, gimme a U...
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S019
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« Reply #17 on: October 20, 2020, 04:17:41 PM »

They have the GCB at 50R-43D so Hegar's underperformance isn't even that notable in terms of margin in this poll.

Yeah, it's more or less clear that Hegar is running really close to congressional Dems and not far behind Biden, the sample is just too R, no way the GCB is swinging R especially if 24 and 22 are flipping, and 32 and 7 are swinging much more D.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #18 on: October 20, 2020, 11:22:05 PM »

New Poll: Texas Senator by Cygnal on 2020-10-19

Summary: D: 41%, R: 49%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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