GA (NYT/Siena) - Tie
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  GA (NYT/Siena) - Tie
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Author Topic: GA (NYT/Siena) - Tie  (Read 2719 times)
skbl17
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« on: October 20, 2020, 12:02:47 PM »

Biden: 45%
Trump: 45%
Jorgensen: 2%
Hawkins*: 1%
Someone else/undecided: 7%

Article: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/20/upshot/poll-georgia-biden-trump.html
Crosstabs: https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/ga101320-crosstabs/96723fae2a9846ed/full.pdf

759 likely voters, Oct. 13-19, MoE: +/- 4.1%

* Hawkins is not officially on the ballot in GA, but is a write-in candidate.
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redjohn
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« Reply #1 on: October 20, 2020, 12:03:09 PM »

Lean Biden. GA is flipping.
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forza nocta
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« Reply #2 on: October 20, 2020, 12:03:56 PM »

10% other/undecided? I can't get jiggy with this s*it
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #3 on: October 20, 2020, 12:04:16 PM »

NYT didn't learn their lesson...
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Person Man
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« Reply #4 on: October 20, 2020, 12:04:40 PM »

Realistically, this shows that Biden will barely  pull it off nationally or that he is going to kick Trumps ass. If there’s no big swing amongst undecideds, the race probably has zero surprises.
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mijan
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« Reply #5 on: October 20, 2020, 12:05:04 PM »

Ossoff 43, Perdue 43, Hazel 4
Warnock 32, Loeffler 23, Collins 17
Ossoff still have chance. Warnock can win against Loeffler
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Gass3268
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« Reply #6 on: October 20, 2020, 12:05:09 PM »

10% other/undecided? I can't get jiggy with this s*it

7%
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #7 on: October 20, 2020, 12:05:37 PM »

Identical result to their last poll of Georgia, it looks like.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #8 on: October 20, 2020, 12:07:30 PM »

Great polling day for Joe
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VAR
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« Reply #9 on: October 20, 2020, 12:07:58 PM »

Trump approval: 48/48 (=)

Favorabilities:
Trump: 47/48 (-1)
Biden: 49/45 (+4)
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #10 on: October 20, 2020, 12:08:49 PM »

It would be more useful if we knew who the undecideds are.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #11 on: October 20, 2020, 12:09:13 PM »

Okay, y'all.  Teaching time: for those who responded as such, why is this a good poll for Biden?
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #12 on: October 20, 2020, 12:10:47 PM »

Okay, y'all.  Teaching time: for those who responded as such, why is this a good poll for Biden?

Approvals for one
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Figueira
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« Reply #13 on: October 20, 2020, 12:11:09 PM »

Okay, y'all.  Teaching time: for those who responded as such, why is this a good poll for Biden?

Not necessarily good for him in Georgia, but good for his overall chances.
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soundchaser
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« Reply #14 on: October 20, 2020, 12:11:59 PM »

Okay, y'all.  Teaching time: for those who responded as such, why is this a good poll for Biden?

I don’t think it’s a stellar poll for Biden (I’d prefer an outright lead), but the difference in favorability numbers implies that most of the undecideds are leaning Biden, or at least have a good enough opinion of him that they probably wouldn’t vote Trump over him.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #15 on: October 20, 2020, 12:13:34 PM »

Okay, y'all.  Teaching time: for those who responded as such, why is this a good poll for Biden?

Approvals for one

And despite the fact that this is the only state where he is outspent.
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ShamDam
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« Reply #16 on: October 20, 2020, 12:15:56 PM »

It's a good poll for Biden because if he barely wins, it's over for Trump, and if he barely loses, Biden's still in great shape.
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skbl17
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« Reply #17 on: October 20, 2020, 12:17:21 PM »

It would be more useful if we knew who the undecideds are.

Looking at the crosstabs, there seems to be more undecided African-American voters (9% versus 4% of white voters).

More Democrats (4%) are undecided than Republicans (1%). 10% of independents are undecided.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #18 on: October 20, 2020, 12:18:59 PM »

Okay, y'all.  Teaching time: for those who responded as such, why is this a good poll for Biden?

Tied in a state Trump won in 2016 with fast changing demographics. Biden has no need to win Georgia. Trump does.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #19 on: October 20, 2020, 12:23:04 PM »

Changes with September 16-21

Biden 45% (n/c)
Trump 45% (n/c)
Jorgensen 2% (n/c)
Hawkins 1% (not previously included)
Someone else 1% (+1)
Not voting for President 0% (but some voters) (n/c)
Don't know/Refused 7% (-1)
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
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« Reply #20 on: October 20, 2020, 12:24:22 PM »

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Hammy
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« Reply #21 on: October 20, 2020, 12:34:09 PM »

Worthless poll. Both are getting at least 48%.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #22 on: October 20, 2020, 12:48:22 PM »

Still a ridiculous # of other/undecided, but given Biden's 49/45 favorability rating and that undecideds seem to lean Biden (Blacks are 10% other/undecided versus 7% for whites), Biden still has the edge here. Also, I don't buy that Trump is getting nearly 20% of nonwhites vs 12% in 2016.
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Xing
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« Reply #23 on: October 20, 2020, 01:09:57 PM »

Pretty much confirms GA is a Toss-Up, and might just be "there."
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kph14
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« Reply #24 on: October 20, 2020, 01:12:21 PM »

I read up some old polls the other day and NYT/Siena had Northam leading 43-40 2 days before election day in 2017. So at least their are somewhat better than that now
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