KY (Mason-Dixon): Trump +17
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 01:47:18 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  KY (Mason-Dixon): Trump +17
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: KY (Mason-Dixon): Trump +17  (Read 1421 times)
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,758


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 20, 2020, 05:43:26 AM »

Trump 56
Biden 39

https://twitter.com/pollreport/status/1318493903486513153

Oof. And that's with 95% allocated. Down from +30 in 2016. If Trump is down 13% in places like this, it makes me that harder to believe that places like NC are somehow only about tied (per ABC/Wapo)
Logged
Ljube
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,999
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 20, 2020, 05:47:37 AM »

Western Kentucky University, October 30, 2016:

Trump: 54
Clinton: 37

Trump+17
Logged
Rand
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,093
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 20, 2020, 05:48:14 AM »
« Edited: October 20, 2020, 05:51:42 AM by You Reap What You Sow »

Sad.

Western Kentucky University, October 30, 2016:

Trump: 54
Clinton: 37

Comparing a different pollster from a different race four years in the past just to prove that what, polls are not 100% scientifically accurate predictors of the future?
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,758


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 20, 2020, 05:50:28 AM »

Western Kentucky University, October 30, 2016:

Trump: 54
Clinton: 37

Trump+17

OK? What's your point? Western Kentucky University =/= Mason-Dixon, 2016 =/= 2020, etc etc etc
Logged
Ljube
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,999
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 20, 2020, 05:52:41 AM »

The point is that pollsters don't know how to poll Kentucky.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,758


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 20, 2020, 05:53:57 AM »

The point is that pollsters don't know how to poll Kentucky.


Mason Dixon was damn good in 2019.

https://www.wsaz.com/content/news/Poll-shows-Bevin-Beshear-in-dead-heat-ahead-of-November-election-563207691.html
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 20, 2020, 05:55:38 AM »

Mason-Dixon is historically probably the best pollster in southern states.

I hope they release a lot more final polls, especially in TX and SC ...
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,771


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 20, 2020, 05:57:47 AM »

October 12-15
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,758


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 20, 2020, 06:05:30 AM »

Mason-Dixon is historically probably the best pollster in southern states.

I hope they release a lot more final polls, especially in TX and SC ...

Yep, they were also incredibly on point in LA in 2019

https://twitter.com/MasonDixonPoll/status/1194279643412606978
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,801
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 20, 2020, 06:17:09 AM »

Goodbye McGrath, she had no chance anyways
Logged
VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,755
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 20, 2020, 06:39:16 AM »

Fuller release: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20201020_KY_MasonDixon.pdf
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,771


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 20, 2020, 06:40:56 AM »

Other 1%
Undecided 4%

625 likely voters
MoE: 4%
Logged
VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,755
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 20, 2020, 06:48:43 AM »

Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,758


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 20, 2020, 06:56:08 AM »

That sounds about right. Given the ginormous amount of ancestral Dems, I'd assume about 1/3 of the Dems are basically Rs
Logged
philly09
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,105


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 20, 2020, 06:57:39 AM »

That sounds about right. Given the ginormous amount of ancestral Dems, I'd assume about 1/3 of the Dems are basically Rs

Yep. Kim Davis was/is a Democrat, sadly.
Logged
Gone to Carolina
SaltGiver
Rookie
**
Posts: 227
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 20, 2020, 07:48:00 AM »

I'd be curious how Clinton did with registered Dems in Kentucky in 2016. Even among self-identified Dems in the 2016 Exit she only led 75-22, and they would've been a less trump-y sample just by virtue of still identifying with the party.

On another note, while I don't trust regional crosstabs as a general rule, Mason-Dixons regional crosstabs for KY-Gov in 2019 were oddly really good. So here's the actual 2016 Presidential numbers by region as determined by Mason-Dixon in 2016 vs. this poll. 

Region of Kentucky: 2016 Result / 2020 Polling

Louisville Metro: Trump +1 / Biden +14
Lexington/Bluegrass: Trump +18 / Trump +6
Northern Kentucky: Trump +34 / Trump +21
Eastern Kentucky: Trump +60 / Trump +38
Western Kentucky: Trump +42 / Trump +35
Logged
Podgy the Bear
mollybecky
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,968


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 20, 2020, 07:58:21 AM »

39 for Biden is a step in the right direction for the Democrats.  In the current political environment, KY will stay heavily Republican, but any further swings will make the Democrats competitive in the state legislature and may move a congressional seat as well.
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,933


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 20, 2020, 10:21:52 AM »

As of now, this is the only poll in the top 18 on this forum that has a Trump lead. (that will change if anyone bumps the GA or AL thread or if something else comes out.
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,876


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 20, 2020, 10:21:16 PM »

New Poll: Kentucky President by Mason-Dixon on 2020-10-15

Summary: D: 39%, R: 56%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged
VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,755
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 22, 2020, 05:21:29 AM »

Other favorabilities:
Gov. Beshear: 53/39 (+14)
AG Cameron: 54/34 (+20)

https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2020/10/22/andy-beshear-daniel-cameron-both-popular-kentucky-poll-shows/3719450001/
Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,937
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 23, 2020, 03:09:06 AM »

That sounds about right. Given the ginormous amount of ancestral Dems, I'd assume about 1/3 of the Dems are basically Rs

Yep. Kim Davis was/is a Democrat, sadly.

She actually switched parties and became a Republican a few years ago, but nevertheless lost reelection as Clerk of Rowan County in 2018.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.038 seconds with 12 queries.