NC-ABC/WaPo: Cunningham +2 (user search)
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  NC-ABC/WaPo: Cunningham +2 (search mode)
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Author Topic: NC-ABC/WaPo: Cunningham +2  (Read 1068 times)
SenatorCouzens
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« on: October 20, 2020, 11:45:55 AM »
« edited: October 20, 2020, 11:49:00 AM by SenatorCouzens »

Love how we get one "bad poll" of NC-SEN, which still has the Cunningham leading and at 49% from a pollster that has generally outputted more right leaning results this cycle, and everyone here starts freaking out. Lean D.

It's more than one poll. North Carolina is more Republican than the nation. Trump has a real chance of winning the state while losing the election. It's a very polarized state. Tillis led in very few polls in 2014. Cunningham has mistresses, which is not helping him.

In the last 40 years, I think you can count on one hand the number of incumbent senators who lost while their copartisan pres candidate carries the state, even in less polarized eras.

I think it's more likely now than a month ago that this race goes however the presidential race goes.
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SenatorCouzens
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 267
United States


« Reply #1 on: October 20, 2020, 12:17:44 PM »

Love how we get one "bad poll" of NC-SEN, which still has the Cunningham leading and at 49% from a pollster that has generally outputted more right leaning results this cycle, and everyone here starts freaking out. Lean D.

It's more than one poll. North Carolina is more Republican than the nation. Trump has a real chance of winning the state while losing the election. It's a very polarized state. Tillis led in very few polls in 2014. Cunningham has mistresses, which is not helping him.

In the last 40 years, I think you can count on one hand the number of incumbent senators who lost while their copartisan pres candidate carries the state, even in less polarized eras.

I think it's more likely now than a month ago that this race goes however the presidential race goes.


Yes, NC will very likely vote ton the right of the nation again, but it's almost guarenteed Biden will win the NPV at this point; the question is by how much.

As for 2014, polling at this point of the race regularly went back and forth between Tillis and Hagan whereas right now it's still pretty rare to see a Cunningham lead. Also: 2014 was a cycle where polling just about everywhere underestimated the wave, we don't really know which way polls will be off this cycle, but it's not like NC is a NV of the right where Rs always outperform polls; there are many examples in recent history of Ds doing better than polls expect in the state.

That's all fair enough. I was just quibbling that a poll is the only thing we can look to for evidence that Tillis has a shot. We need to keep the "fundamentals" of North Carolina in mind (polarized, R lean relative to nation, no one would be shocked if Trump narrowly won) as well as "candidate quality" (it's not good for Cunningham to be dogged with questions about mistresses in the final weeks of the campaign) without reference to the polls.

In the last week of the 2014 election, there were 7 polls (RCP), Hagan narrowly led in 6 and Tillis narrowly led in 1. I think it's something to keep a tiny bit in mind. But yes, 2014 was a great year for the GOP in a way this year won't be.
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