NC-ECU: Cunningham +1

[VAR]

Cunningham 48%
Tillis 47%

Source

[KaiserDave]

Closer than I'd like, hoping Biden and King Cooper pull Historically Sexy over the line.

[libertpaulian]

Not sexy.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Tillis' best poll relative to Trump, usually; it had him leading last time by under a point.

October 15-18
1155 likely voters
MoE: 3.4%
Changes with October 2-4 poll; changes and margin calculated pre-rounding

Cunningham 49% (+2)
Tillis 47% (n/c)
Some other candidate 1% (-1)
Would/did not vote for this office 1% (n/c from Would not vote at 1%)
Prefer not to answer 0% (but some voters) (-1)
Undecided 2% (-1)

[Woody]

Lean R.

[Xing]

This poll had Tillis up 1 previously, so it’s not as bad for Cunningham as it might seem. Still Tilt D.

[KaiserDave]

This poll had Tillis up 1 previously, so it’s not as bad for Cunningham as it might seem. Still Tilt D.

Good context, thank you Xing.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This poll last had Cunningham underwater, so good to see he gained ground here.

[Bootes Void]

Cunningham is underperforming Biden by two points.
Please dont tell me Tillis "i will be a check on Biden" schtick is working.

overall ECU  is a R leaning pollster so the result isnt too bad

[WD]

Cunningham is underperforming Biden by two points.
Please dont tell me Tillis "i will be a check on Biden" schtick is working.

overall ECU  is a R leaning pollster so the result isnt too bad

Cunningham isn’t underperforming Biden. Tillis and Trump are both at 47%.

[Alben Barkley]

This is NOT a historically sexy poll.

[UWS]

Tillis should also be benefiting from ACB's SCOTUS nomination as a previous poll published a week ago showed that 46 % of North Carolinians want ACB to be confirmed while 33 % don't. Cunningham, of course doesn't want Barret confirmed and so I think a confirmation will help mobilize social conservative voters in NC in favor of Tillis like in 2018 in states like TN, IN, MO, ND and FL with Kavanaugh's confirmation.

[wbrocks67]

Last poll had Tillis +1 so this is good for Cunningham.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Tillis should also be benefiting from ACB's SCOTUS nomination as a previous poll published a week ago showed that 46 % of North Carolinians want ACB to be confirmed while 33 % don't. Cunningham, of course doesn't want Barret confirmed and so I think a confirmation will help mobilize social conservative voters in NC in favor of Tillis like in 2018 in states like TN, IN, MO, ND and FL with Kavanaugh's confirmation.

Kavanagh increased partisanship in 2018, which in turn helped Republicans, hence why they gained Democrat held seats in deep red territory while Democrats gained in states you would expect to lean towards them in that sort of national environment. The issue is right now, the national environment looks really bad for Rs, and it seems like Biden is a favorite in NC, so if anything I would argue this is a wash at best for Tillis.

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: North Carolina Senator by ECU on 2020-10-18

Summary: D: 49%, R: 47%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details