NC-ABC/WaPo: Cunningham +2
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Author Topic: NC-ABC/WaPo: Cunningham +2  (Read 1222 times)
VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« on: October 20, 2020, 05:07:53 AM »

Cunningham 49%
Tillis 47%

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/coronavirus-concerns-factor-tied-north-carolina-poll/story?id=73670800
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: October 20, 2020, 05:22:29 AM »

Given what we've seen in this race elsewhere, this seems a bit Rep-leaning, but I can't complain about 96% being decided.
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #2 on: October 20, 2020, 05:28:03 AM »

After Georgia this is the one state I found it hard to believe Dems would win the Senate race in but I talked myself into it and just in time for the home stretch ... we get a tossup poll. Yikes
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #3 on: October 20, 2020, 05:54:00 AM »

October 12-17
646 likely voters
MoE: 4.5% for likely voters

Neither 1%
Other 0% (but some voters)
Would not vote 0% (but some voters)
No opinion 3%
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #4 on: October 20, 2020, 06:29:52 AM »

Polls are just tightening back to a normal 334 race it was bound to happen
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #5 on: October 20, 2020, 06:40:17 AM »

After Georgia this is the one state I found it hard to believe Dems would win the Senate race in but I talked myself into it and just in time for the home stretch ... we get a tossup poll. Yikes

This race will go Dem as long as Biden wins NC.  If Trump wins NC, Tillis May very well win.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #6 on: October 20, 2020, 07:18:09 AM »

Love how we get one "bad poll" of NC-SEN, which still has the Cunningham leading and at 49% from a pollster that has generally outputted more right leaning results this cycle, and everyone here starts freaking out. Lean D.
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Woody
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« Reply #7 on: October 20, 2020, 09:27:57 AM »

Love how we get one "bad poll" of NC-SEN, which still has the Cunningham leading and at 49% from a pollster that has generally outputted more right leaning results this cycle, and everyone here starts freaking out. Lean D.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/nc/north_carolina_senate_tillis_vs_cunningham-6908.html
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #8 on: October 20, 2020, 09:29:27 AM »

With this in mind, it'll be interesting to see how the ECU-NC poll (being released later today) shakes out. 
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #9 on: October 20, 2020, 09:36:27 AM »

Love how we get one "bad poll" of NC-SEN, which still has the Cunningham leading and at 49% from a pollster that has generally outputted more right leaning results this cycle, and everyone here starts freaking out. Lean D.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/nc/north_carolina_senate_tillis_vs_cunningham-6908.html

Latest NC Senate polls

ABC/Wapo: Cunningham +2/+3
Emerson: Cunningham +1
Civiqs: Cunningham +6
Siena: Cunningham +2/+4
Ipsos: Cunningham +4
Monmouth: Cunningham +4/+5
Morning Consult: Cunningham +6
RMG: Cunningham +10
SurveyUSA: Cunningham +10

Cunningham 1/2 are outliers.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #10 on: October 20, 2020, 09:37:06 AM »

Tilt D, but too close for comfort. I'm stilla bit nervous over this race and ME, which is why Dems better win the GAs, IA and MT.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #11 on: October 20, 2020, 09:41:13 AM »

Love how we get one "bad poll" of NC-SEN, which still has the Cunningham leading and at 49% from a pollster that has generally outputted more right leaning results this cycle, and everyone here starts freaking out. Lean D.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/nc/north_carolina_senate_tillis_vs_cunningham-6908.html

Again, if you weight the polls, you get Cunningham 46.67 - 41.55 (NYT and Emerson pulled increased the number of undecides, but still a 5% Cunningham lead)
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Xing
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« Reply #12 on: October 20, 2020, 09:56:42 AM »

Tilt D. Too close for comfort, but I’d definitely rather be Cunningham than Tillis.
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SenatorCouzens
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« Reply #13 on: October 20, 2020, 11:45:55 AM »
« Edited: October 20, 2020, 11:49:00 AM by SenatorCouzens »

Love how we get one "bad poll" of NC-SEN, which still has the Cunningham leading and at 49% from a pollster that has generally outputted more right leaning results this cycle, and everyone here starts freaking out. Lean D.

It's more than one poll. North Carolina is more Republican than the nation. Trump has a real chance of winning the state while losing the election. It's a very polarized state. Tillis led in very few polls in 2014. Cunningham has mistresses, which is not helping him.

In the last 40 years, I think you can count on one hand the number of incumbent senators who lost while their copartisan pres candidate carries the state, even in less polarized eras.

I think it's more likely now than a month ago that this race goes however the presidential race goes.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #14 on: October 20, 2020, 12:01:23 PM »

Love how we get one "bad poll" of NC-SEN, which still has the Cunningham leading and at 49% from a pollster that has generally outputted more right leaning results this cycle, and everyone here starts freaking out. Lean D.

It's more than one poll. North Carolina is more Republican than the nation. Trump has a real chance of winning the state while losing the election. It's a very polarized state. Tillis led in very few polls in 2014. Cunningham has mistresses, which is not helping him.

In the last 40 years, I think you can count on one hand the number of incumbent senators who lost while their copartisan pres candidate carries the state, even in less polarized eras.

I think it's more likely now than a month ago that this race goes however the presidential race goes.


Yes, NC will very likely vote ton the right of the nation again, but it's almost guarenteed Biden will win the NPV at this point; the question is by how much.

As for 2014, polling at this point of the race regularly went back and forth between Tillis and Hagan whereas right now it's still pretty rare to see a Cunningham lead. Also: 2014 was a cycle where polling just about everywhere underestimated the wave, we don't really know which way polls will be off this cycle, but it's not like NC is a NV of the right where Rs always outperform polls; there are many examples in recent history of Ds doing better than polls expect in the state.
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SenatorCouzens
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« Reply #15 on: October 20, 2020, 12:17:44 PM »

Love how we get one "bad poll" of NC-SEN, which still has the Cunningham leading and at 49% from a pollster that has generally outputted more right leaning results this cycle, and everyone here starts freaking out. Lean D.

It's more than one poll. North Carolina is more Republican than the nation. Trump has a real chance of winning the state while losing the election. It's a very polarized state. Tillis led in very few polls in 2014. Cunningham has mistresses, which is not helping him.

In the last 40 years, I think you can count on one hand the number of incumbent senators who lost while their copartisan pres candidate carries the state, even in less polarized eras.

I think it's more likely now than a month ago that this race goes however the presidential race goes.


Yes, NC will very likely vote ton the right of the nation again, but it's almost guarenteed Biden will win the NPV at this point; the question is by how much.

As for 2014, polling at this point of the race regularly went back and forth between Tillis and Hagan whereas right now it's still pretty rare to see a Cunningham lead. Also: 2014 was a cycle where polling just about everywhere underestimated the wave, we don't really know which way polls will be off this cycle, but it's not like NC is a NV of the right where Rs always outperform polls; there are many examples in recent history of Ds doing better than polls expect in the state.

That's all fair enough. I was just quibbling that a poll is the only thing we can look to for evidence that Tillis has a shot. We need to keep the "fundamentals" of North Carolina in mind (polarized, R lean relative to nation, no one would be shocked if Trump narrowly won) as well as "candidate quality" (it's not good for Cunningham to be dogged with questions about mistresses in the final weeks of the campaign) without reference to the polls.

In the last week of the 2014 election, there were 7 polls (RCP), Hagan narrowly led in 6 and Tillis narrowly led in 1. I think it's something to keep a tiny bit in mind. But yes, 2014 was a great year for the GOP in a way this year won't be.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #16 on: October 20, 2020, 12:21:51 PM »

Love how we get one "bad poll" of NC-SEN, which still has the Cunningham leading and at 49% from a pollster that has generally outputted more right leaning results this cycle, and everyone here starts freaking out. Lean D.

It's more than one poll. North Carolina is more Republican than the nation. Trump has a real chance of winning the state while losing the election. It's a very polarized state. Tillis led in very few polls in 2014. Cunningham has mistresses, which is not helping him.

In the last 40 years, I think you can count on one hand the number of incumbent senators who lost while their copartisan pres candidate carries the state, even in less polarized eras.

I think it's more likely now than a month ago that this race goes however the presidential race goes.


Yes, NC will very likely vote ton the right of the nation again, but it's almost guarenteed Biden will win the NPV at this point; the question is by how much.

As for 2014, polling at this point of the race regularly went back and forth between Tillis and Hagan whereas right now it's still pretty rare to see a Cunningham lead. Also: 2014 was a cycle where polling just about everywhere underestimated the wave, we don't really know which way polls will be off this cycle, but it's not like NC is a NV of the right where Rs always outperform polls; there are many examples in recent history of Ds doing better than polls expect in the state.

That's all fair enough. I was just quibbling that a poll is the only thing we can look to for evidence that Tillis has a shot. We need to keep the "fundamentals" of North Carolina in mind (polarized, R lean relative to nation, no one would be shocked if Trump narrowly won) as well as "candidate quality" (it's not good for Cunningham to be dogged with questions about mistresses in the final weeks of the campaign) without reference to the polls.

In the last week of the 2014 election, there were 7 polls (RCP), Hagan narrowly led in 6 and Tillis narrowly led in 1. I think it's something to keep a tiny bit in mind. But yes, 2014 was a great year for the GOP in a way this year won't be.

Yeah fair enough. I agree with you. I think we can both agree Cunningham is probably favored, but Tillis definately can overcome Cunningham’s lead and “surprise us”
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Yoda
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« Reply #17 on: October 20, 2020, 02:53:29 PM »

Are we seeing tightening here since the Cunningham sexting/cheating story broke?
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #18 on: October 20, 2020, 03:48:08 PM »

Are we seeing tightening here since the Cunningham sexting/cheating story broke?

Sure looks like it.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #19 on: October 20, 2020, 03:49:57 PM »

Are we seeing tightening here since the Cunningham sexting/cheating story broke?

Sure looks like it.

Not from this poll. This is the first ABC/WaPo NC poll we have to judge.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #20 on: October 20, 2020, 11:25:02 PM »

New Poll: North Carolina Senator by Washington Post on 2020-10-17

Summary: D: 49%, R: 47%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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