FL-UNF: Biden +1

[VAR]

Biden 48% (-3)
Trump 47% (+2)

Trump approval: 47/49 (-2)

Hispanics: 50-43 Biden (+7)
65+: 54-44 Trump (+10)

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/story/news/politics/2020/10/20/poll-gives-democrat-joe-biden-razor-thin-one-point-lead-florida/5987053002/

[Rand]

Election night isn’t election night unless Florida’s a nail biter.

[Podgy the Bear]

Add this to the +1 TX, GA, OH, IA, and NC results we are seeing, and this is the difference between an okay win versus an EV landslide for Biden.

[Ljube]

But what happens if all FL, TX, GA, AZ, NC, OH and IA end up being Trump+1?
And if Trump wins PA by less than 1.

[wbrocks67]

5% swing totally normal!

[Podgy the Bear]

But what happens if all FL, TX, GA, AZ, NC, OH and IA end up being Trump+1?
And if Trump wins PA by less than 1.

With today's NYT/Siena +9 for Biden (reasonable) in the national numbers and a likely 150 million turnout, that translates to a 13 million popular vote win for Biden.  Of course, Trump can pull out 1 point wins in the swing states to eke out the victory, but it would be a disaster for this country.

[Rand]

But what happens if all FL, TX, GA, AZ, NC, OH and IA end up being Trump+1?
And if Trump wins PA by less than 1.

Then an even bigger asteroid needs to strike the earth the day after the election.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

October 12-16
863 likely voters
MoE: 3.3%
Changes with October 1-4

Biden 48% (-3)
Trump 47% (+2)
Someone else 1% (n/c)
Don't know 3% (n/c from "Don't know/Refused" at 3%)

I edited in more details here as they emerged.

[Brittain33]

But what happens if all FL, TX, GA, AZ, NC, OH and IA end up being Trump+1?
And if Trump wins PA by less than 1.

Trump winning PA by +1 implies winning those other states by much more than 1.

[philly09]

Only 29% college graduate?  Seems a little low.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Fuller release: https://www.unf.edu/uploadedFiles/aa/coas/porl/FLFallOct2020.pdf

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

But what happens if all FL, TX, GA, AZ, NC, OH and IA end up being Trump+1?
And if Trump wins PA by less than 1.

Trump winning PA by +1 implies winning those other states by much more than 1.

Ignore Lube he thinks PA is some red state like most Rs on this forum, Wolf won by 17 pts

The Rs on the forum said due WOW counties WI was a red state, now PA is an R version of VA

[Skye]

We get a super close poll of FL while we get dozens of polls that show Trump heavily underperforming in red states.

Never change, Florida.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

But what happens if all FL, TX, GA, AZ, NC, OH and IA end up being Trump+1?
And if Trump wins PA by less than 1.

Then hopefully Silicon Valley moves collectively to Austin and Atlanta, bringing several hundred thousand Bay Area liberal voters with them

[wbrocks67]

Oddly enough, this has Biden doing considerably better among Hispanics than their last poll (that had it tied), yet Biden is down 5% from their last poll lol.

[vitoNova]

#RalliesMatter

[Buzz]

Freedom poll. 

[MillennialModerate]

a 5 point jump for Trump? Awesome.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Freedom poll. 

UNF had Gillum up by six in their Oct. 23-26 poll (and Nelson up by one).  Garbage!

(Seriously though, it shouldn't shock anybody that Florida is going to perpetually close heading into Election Day).  

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Oddly enough, this has Biden doing considerably better among Hispanics than their last poll (that had it tied), yet Biden is down 5% from their last poll lol.

What's odd here? A normal fluctuation of small sub-samples 🤷‍♀️

[ProgressiveModerate]

But what happens if all FL, TX, GA, AZ, NC, OH and IA end up being Trump+1?
And if Trump wins PA by less than 1.

The probability of that happenning is extreme unlikely, especially since OH and PA are correlated to some degree as they have very simillar Demographics and are from a simillar region; while both are swing states, if Biden is winning OH, you can bet you're bottom dollar he's winning PA, and probably by more than just a point or two.

[Skye]

But what happens if all FL, TX, GA, AZ, NC, OH and IA end up being Trump+1?
And if Trump wins PA by less than 1.

The probability of that happenning is extreme unlikely, especially since OH and PA are correlated to some degree as they have very simillar Demographics and are from a simillar region; while both are swing states, if Biden is winning OH, you can bet you're bottom dollar he's winning PA, and probably by more than just a point or two.

I think you misread the post...

[ProgressiveModerate]

But what happens if all FL, TX, GA, AZ, NC, OH and IA end up being Trump+1?
And if Trump wins PA by less than 1.

The probability of that happenning is extreme unlikely, especially since OH and PA are correlated to some degree as they have very simillar Demographics and are from a simillar region; while both are swing states, if Biden is winning OH, you can bet you're bottom dollar he's winning PA, and probably by more than just a point or two.

I think you misread the post...

So even if OH is Trump + 1.4 and PA is Trump +0.1, that still seems like too small of a gap to me. I think the states will vote closer than usual as OH hasn't gotten the same ad spending it usually does, but they're likely to be at least 3-4 points apart; there is no good modern example of correlated states swinging in dramatically different ways on the Presidential level barring some circumstance (home state advantage, where AZ trended right against the rest of the SW in '08, for instance)

[wbrocks67]

Oddly enough, this has Biden doing considerably better among Hispanics than their last poll (that had it tied), yet Biden is down 5% from their last poll lol.

What's odd here? A normal fluctuation of small sub-samples 🤷‍♀️

I'm not saying the fluctuation is odd, but that the topline # got significantly worse for Biden despite Hispanics doing better in this one for him.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The difference between the 291 map and the 413 map is just a few millimeters of bone voter suppression.