Dems are vastly overestimating PA's chance of flipping relative to MI/WI.
What's your read on why this might be? Could it have to do with Pennsylvania having more "rock-ribbed Republican" rural areas as opposed to all the Obama-Obama-Trump or Obama-Romney-Trump counties in rural Michigan and Wisconsin?
Of Trump's flips in 2016, Pennsylvania was the only state where his vote gains from 2012 outweighed Hillary's losses from 2012. In IA/OH/MI, Hillary lost 1-4 votes depending on the state compared to 2012 for every vote Trump picked up (and both lost votes in Wisconsin)--while that doesn't necessarily mean Trump would've lost with higher turnout, it shows that there were more Obama-Trump voters combined with Obama voters simply not liking Hillary and going third party or staying home.
So Pennsylvania is a glaring exception where Republicans actually saw a surge in voters, people who were excited for Trump, rather than some vote flips and people being unhappy with Hillary. So even if it doesn't necessarily guarantee he'll win per se, his support there is a lot stronger than in other states where there's more soft support or swing voters to shave off.
Very good point. I just feel like the fundementals of PA though are far better than those of MI and WI
-PA is more urbanized
-PA is more diverse
-Trump got a higher vote share in rural areas, and there are plenty of suburbs where Ds have room to grow
-Ds did the best in PA in 2018
-Even though the margin is a bit narrower, Biden is polling the highest in PA out of any of the big 3 (50.3%)
and so on.
Also, of the big 3, PA had the most accurate polling
MI and WI are just harder to poll because you have lot of rural parts of the state that are very swingy and where it's hard to get an accurate sample of voters, hence why they were way off (in Obama's favor) in 2008, and then again for Trump in 2016.
Basically, I buy PA could be closer, but I think the fundementals at this point make it very hard for Trump to be pushed over the edge again.
