As of today, October 19, 2020, do you believe Kamala Harris will be elected president in 2024?

[Barack Oganja]

If you had to make the call today, do you see Vice Presidential Nominee Kamala being elected president in 4 years? This would likely require Biden/Harris being elected, Harris winning the 2024 Democratic nomination, and then defeating the 2024 Republican nominee. Potential wildcards are Biden/Harris losing, Biden running for another term, Biden not finishing his term, Harris losing the nomination to another challenger, and who she would face in the general.

[Vosem]

No. I think Biden will seek reelection, and I think Harris is a weak candidate who would be unlikely to win if she is nominated.

[President Johnson]

Too early to say, but I think chances are high a Democrat will be elected. Depends on whether President Biden seeks reelection. If not, she has a strong case to make. But she'll be the nominee after him, unless Trump pulls this year off. In that case, Kamala would still be in a strong position, though far from inevitable. Then I'd bet on Gretchen Whitmer.

[brucejoel99]

No, because I think Joe Biden will be re-elected in 2024.

[TDAS04]

Maybe 2028, after Biden’s successful 8-year administration.

[RINO Tom]

Unfortunately, most likely.  However, I think she'd be one of the weaker Democratic nominees.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Biden is 77.  He would be 81 in 2024.  I'm sure he'd like to run for re-election, but chances are he won't be able to.  And Harris would be a very strong candidate, especially if the Biden administration is as successful as I expect it to be.

[rhg2052]

Yes, absolutely.

[Mister Mets]

Interesting question.

This does seem to require several things to occur, some of which have really high odds, but might still combine to something below 50%.

So let's working it out.

The 538 model gives Biden an 88% chance. If he wins, Harris probably has a really high chance of being the next nominee (I'm guessing around 75%.) Then it's a matter of determining her odds of winning an open election when her party has had the White House for one term (I'm guessing around 66%.) My numbers here come to around 40%.

She could also become President if Biden loses (12% chance) as she would be a top-tier contender for President (50% chance of winning the nomination) and have a high chance of winning (I'm guessing around 80%.) This scenario has about a 5% chance.

Her chances of being elected President in 2024 are good (roughly 45%) but under 50/50.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

She's the most likely Democrat to win in 2024, even if Trump wins. 

It'll be easier to extrapolate 2024 once this election is over.

[ShadowRocket]

Lean Yes. Who knows how the next four years will play out, but I think that unless Biden's presidency is ultimately regarded as a failure, I think she will have a good shot.  She wont have the incumbency advantage, but at the same time I don't think she'll have to deal with party fatigue after only four years of a Democratic White House to the extent that Gore and Hillary did in their respective runs.

Plus, I'm expecting the 2024 Republican primaries to be such a clusterf**k that I'm skeptical that the eventual nominee will have much standing left for the general.

[Heir of Camelot]

My gut says no. She's got some things going for her but she lacks that "it" quality. I knew Obama would be President some day after watching him on the Charlie Rose show long before he was even a glimmer in anyone's eye.

I was really disappointed in Kamala's debate performance, everything was all cued up for her to hit it out of the park and instead she was underwhelming. She had that weird smirk on her face the whole time and then making up her own facts on the Lincoln Supreme Court thing was annoying. Making up facts to serve your point is such a Repub move. Then you have the whole sleeping with Willie Brown to get a job thing and I just can't quite see it. I'd vote for her but she just doesn't have that "date with Destiny" vibe like Obama, Bill Clinton, etc.

Also I tend to think the first female President will be a Republican as much as it pains me to say it, it's just a much easier road, that's why Nikki Haley kind of makes me nervous.

[Turbo Flame]

It's very likely. Especially if Joe Biden wins the 2020 election.

[Agonized-Statism]

My guess today:

Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA) / UN Ambassador Pete Buttigieg (D-IN) ✓
Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) / Fmr. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (R-KS)

Harris is a weak candidate, and I think we'll still be in a bad place then, but the Democrats' floor is going up. The populists have burned a lot of bridges. If the Republican can win back some suburbanites and supercharge the white working class, then that and reduced minority turnout could do it.

[Sir Mohamed]

Lean Yes.

I'm not sold on Biden running for reelection. The job is very stressful, at least when you take it seriously, and running would be even more. He'll turn 81 in November 2023. I think he'll enjoy governing to the end without having to burdon to seek reelection. Harris would run his place and most likely end up winning over the GOP candidate, who will be total nuts.

[Orser67]

Between the chances that Biden runs for re-election, Biden retires but Harris loses the nomination, and Biden retires but Harris loses in the general, I'd give her a less than 50/50 shot. But she's about neck-and-neck with Biden for the single most likely winner.

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

Possibly, I do think that Biden will step down after one term and while Harris certainly is in the top tier of candidates I don't think she'll have a lock on the nomination. Unlike Hillary the field won't be cleared for her and unlike Biden she won't benefit from the same sense of desperation and electability arguments among Democratic primary voters eager to get rid of Trump. She might be a more formidable candidate then she was in 2020 after four years in the national spotlight but I don't think her winning the nomination or the general is guaranteed.

[S019]

Yes, I think Biden will retire, we are forgetting that had say Jeb Bush won in 2016, Biden wouldn't have run, he probably only ran because Trump was uniquely bad and he has been open about serving as a transitional President.

[Wrenchmob]

No. I think Biden runs for a second term.

[Storr]

Obviously this heavily depends on if a first term Biden decides to run for a second or retire in 2024. Assuming no major health crises, he'll definitely run for reelection. He's been wanting to be President since at least 1984, so Joe isn't going to give up the Presidency unless he's simply unable (physically or mentally) to effectively do the job.

[Da2017]

Kamala does come across as Charismatic. Not Obama or Bill Clinton. Maybe on par with Biden. I could easily see her winning against Pence. Anyway it's to depend on the administration performance. If Biden does a good job she wins. There will be noise from the left. There won't be party fatigue.

[MarkD]

No, because I think Joe Biden will be re-elected in 2024.

Maybe 2028, after Biden’s successful 8-year administration.

No. I think Biden runs for a second term.