MT-RMG Research/PoliticalIQ: Daines +2
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September 24, 2021, 03:48:46 PM

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Author Topic: MT-RMG Research/PoliticalIQ: Daines +2  (Read 749 times)
VARep
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« on: October 19, 2020, 09:08:25 AM »
« edited: October 19, 2020, 09:12:10 AM by VARepublican »


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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: October 19, 2020, 09:09:44 AM »

Tossup remains tossup.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #2 on: October 19, 2020, 09:13:58 AM »

This race is going to be very close. I'd like to see Cooney match this margin. I almost want Cooney to win more.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #3 on: October 19, 2020, 09:15:55 AM »

October 15-18
800 likely voters
MoE: 3.5%

Some other candidate 1%
Not sure 4%

Strong Democratic turnout model
Bullock 48%
Daines 47%
Some other candidate 1%
Not sure 4%

Strong Republican turnout model
Daines 50%
Bullock 45%
Some other candidate 1%
Not sure 4%
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Panda Express
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« Reply #4 on: October 19, 2020, 09:18:13 AM »

So it looks like there is no Green or Libertarian candidate on the ballot this cycle. Just Bullock and Daines. Mono y mano.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #5 on: October 19, 2020, 09:20:11 AM »

Pure tossup, maybe slight Tilt R.

Daines and Bullock have regulary been polling above 45% or close to 50% each. So not a major pool of undecided voters left. It's going to be a tight race one way or the other.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #6 on: October 19, 2020, 09:20:19 AM »

So it looks like there is no Green or Libertarian candidate on the ballot this cycle. Just Bullock and Daines. Mono y mano.

No write-in either, as far as I'm aware. "Some other candidate" voters will be spoiling their ballots.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #7 on: October 19, 2020, 09:30:23 AM »
« Edited: October 19, 2020, 09:35:27 AM by Sir Mohamed »

This race is going to be very close. I'd like to see Cooney match this margin. I almost want Cooney to win more.

Why? It's still possible one of ME or NC go the GOP's way (I consider it a given that CO and AZ flip to D, while AL goes R). Winning MT seat would give Dems a bigger margin of error in the senate, which will be essential for Biden to get stuff done. IA and the GAs are not certain either. And tbh, I'd feel much more comfortable with 51, 52 or 53 Dem senators instead of a bare 50-50.

I agree Gianforte is horrible while Daines is sort of "ok" for a GOPer, but MT-governorship isn't worth more than a senate seat. It's a small state population-wise and has an R-dominated State Legislature, causing the gov to have a smaller impact. Cooney could only govern by executive action or sign/veto GOP bills. Sure, I'd much rather have Cooney winning than Gianforte, but winning MT-Sen is more important for 2020. In terms of importance, I'd say MT-Sen > MT-Gov > MT-AL.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #8 on: October 19, 2020, 09:33:37 AM »

This race is going to be very close. I'd like to see Cooney match this margin. I almost want Cooney to win more.

Why? It's still possible one of ME or NC go the GOP's way (I consider it a given that CO and AZ flip to D, while AL goes R). Winning MT seat would give Dems a bigger margin of error in the senate, which will essential for Biden to get stuff done. IA and the GAs are not certain either. And tbh, I'd feel much more comfortable with 51, 52 or 53 Dem senators instead of a bare 50-50.

I agree Gianforte is horrible while Daines is sort of "ok" for a GOPer, but MT-governorship isn't worth more than a senate seat. It's a small state population-wise and has an R-dominated State Legislature, causing the gov to have a smaller impact. Cooney could only govern by executive action or sign/veto GOP bills. Sure, I'd much rather have Cooney winning than Gianforte, but winning MT-Sen is more important for 2020. In terms of importance, I'd say MT-Sen > MT-Gov > MT-AL.

I said almost, I know the Senate is more important

But my reasoning is that Gianforte is really, really, awful. It's a state near and dear to my heart, and I'd hate to see it be governed by him, when Cooney is clearly a better alternative. Population size doesn't really come into it for me.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #9 on: October 19, 2020, 09:42:37 AM »

Tossup/Tilt R.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #10 on: October 19, 2020, 09:43:43 AM »

Very very close, though tilt R for now. Really like to see more MT polls before the election
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Mr. Kanye West
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« Reply #11 on: October 19, 2020, 09:58:04 AM »


This is an R internal, Bullock still has a chance,. PPP polled this race and contradicted this pol and had Bullock up by 2
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The Democratic Party Left Me
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« Reply #12 on: October 19, 2020, 10:05:11 AM »

This race is going to be very close. I'd like to see Cooney match this margin. I almost want Cooney to win more.

Why? 
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #13 on: October 19, 2020, 10:10:29 AM »

This race is going to be very close. I'd like to see Cooney match this margin. I almost want Cooney to win more.

Why? It's still possible one of ME or NC go the GOP's way (I consider it a given that CO and AZ flip to D, while AL goes R). Winning MT seat would give Dems a bigger margin of error in the senate, which will essential for Biden to get stuff done. IA and the GAs are not certain either. And tbh, I'd feel much more comfortable with 51, 52 or 53 Dem senators instead of a bare 50-50.

I agree Gianforte is horrible while Daines is sort of "ok" for a GOPer, but MT-governorship isn't worth more than a senate seat. It's a small state population-wise and has an R-dominated State Legislature, causing the gov to have a smaller impact. Cooney could only govern by executive action or sign/veto GOP bills. Sure, I'd much rather have Cooney winning than Gianforte, but winning MT-Sen is more important for 2020. In terms of importance, I'd say MT-Sen > MT-Gov > MT-AL.

I said almost, I know the Senate is more important

But my reasoning is that Gianforte is really, really, awful. It's a state near and dear to my heart, and I'd hate to see it be governed by him, when Cooney is clearly a better alternative. Population size doesn't really come into it for me.

^^^^^^^^
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Mr. Kanye West
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« Reply #14 on: October 19, 2020, 11:23:23 AM »

It's gonna be hard for D's to win more than 52 seats anyways which would give them a Supermajority, that would also w them to Crt pack. But, there is still optimism.

AZ, CO, GA, IA, ME and NC remains their probable path to Majority in Senate, especially since Pelosi  won't release the stimulus
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SirWoodbury
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« Reply #15 on: October 19, 2020, 11:49:28 AM »

Safe R.
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Mr. Kanye West
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« Reply #16 on: October 19, 2020, 11:54:38 AM »


You know Rosendale was behind by big margins to Tester by huge margins and lost by only 4, MT is weird and the incumbent from either party isn't safe no matter if it's Tester or Daines
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #17 on: October 20, 2020, 09:02:32 PM »

This race is a pure Toss-up, and I do think a lot of people are seriously underestimating Bullock's chances here. While I could see some last-minute shift/momentum (as a result of some combination of trends catching up with voting patterns, undecideds breaking heavily R, polls slightly underestimating R strength, etc.) costing Democrats like Greenfield and Cunningham whose fortunes hinge on a very Democratic-friendly environment and/or Biden overperformance at the top of the ticket, Bullock has a high built-in level of support and stellar organization which wonít be easy to overcome regardless of the result at the presidential level.

So it looks like there is no Green or Libertarian candidate on the ballot this cycle. Just Bullock and Daines. Mono y mano.

No write-in either, as far as I'm aware. "Some other candidate" voters will be spoiling their ballots.

Itís like FL-SEN 2018: Thereís a write-in option for every race, itís just that thereís no serious write-in candidate/campaign (the filing/registration deadline for write-in candidates passed in September), so yeah, it would be equivalent to spoiling your ballot.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #18 on: October 20, 2020, 09:07:15 PM »

Dang it, I got excited for a second we got a new MT-SEN poll
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #19 on: October 20, 2020, 09:35:39 PM »



John Lewis bump
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Mr. Kanye West
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« Reply #20 on: October 20, 2020, 09:39:01 PM »


You really think in a Biden onslaught Daines, 11 pt race, he will survive a 2 pt race, against Populust Bullock, Gianforte probably wins😭😭😭
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #21 on: October 20, 2020, 11:02:22 PM »

New Poll: Montana Senator by RMG Research on 2020-10-18

Summary: D: 47%, R: 49%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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