PRRI: Biden +14 /+18 (varying turnout models)

[n1240]

https://www.prri.org/press-release/ahead-of-2020-election-and-amid-multiple-crises-trump-and-biden-supporters-see-different-realities-and-futures-for-the-nation/

Low turnout Model (~55%)

Biden 54
Trump 40

High turnout Model (~70%)

Biden 56
Trump 38

10/9-12, ? LV

[ProgressiveModerate]

Imagine if we start getting polls showing Biden's lead in the high teens or 20s on a regular basis?

I can only hope...

[wbrocks67]

Welp

[Rand]

[MillennialModerate]

Only if this wasn’t from a horrendous pollster

[GeorgiaModerate]

Only if this wasn’t from a horrendous pollster

538 lists them as A/B.  Why do you say they're horrendous?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Only if this wasn’t from a horrendous pollster

538 lists them as A/B.  Why do you say they're horrendous?

Any poll that shows good news for Biden must be flawed.

[Dumbo]

It's from 10/12, so the the mega-bombshell-report-bump isn't included in this poll.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

MoE: 2.6% for full sample of 2538 adults
Changes with September 9-22

Low (~55%) turnout
591 likely voters

Biden 54% (-1)
Trump 40% (-4)

High turnout (~70%) turnout (n.b. previous poll used a 68% turnout model here)
752 likely voters

Biden 56% (-1)
Trump 37% (-5)

[Comrade Funk]

Only if this wasn’t from a horrendous pollster

Why are you constantly miserable

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

On Saturday my friend stood in line 2.5 hours to vote. In Indianapolis. This was a Democratic block party, more or less. I hear this story repeated all around the country.

I don't believe +18 nationwide, but I have a tiny hope that a lot of pollsters may be missing a revolution taking place.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

It's from 10/12, so the the mega-bombshell-report-bump isn't included in this poll.

It must include the Ken Bone bump, but not the Trump pivoting and giving a compassionate speech to Florida retirees bump.

[wbrocks67]

On Saturday my friend stood in line 2.5 hours to vote. In Indianapolis. This was a Democratic block party, more or less. I hear this story repeated all around the country.

I don't believe +18 nationwide, but I have a tiny hope that a lot of pollsters may be missing a revolution taking place.

Yep. There is just as much of a possibility here that the "polling errors" end up not catching onto the giant "blue wave" so to speak happening in front of us.

[MillennialModerate]

Only if this wasn’t from a horrendous pollster

Why are you constantly miserable

Trauma.

2016

Then 2020 MASen

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Only if this wasn’t from a horrendous pollster

Why are you constantly miserable

Trauma.

2016

Then 2020 MASen

1. Polls towards the end of the Senate primary showed Markey leading by about 10, and Markey won by about 10. shockedpikachu.jpg
2. The fact that you'd treat Trump's victory and Markey's victory as if they're in any way analogous says terrible, terrible things about you. I'd say the same about a Markey supporter treating a Kennedy victory as if it were analogous to 2016.

[Eraserhead]

Probably junk but lovely junk indeed.

[wbrocks67]

Probably junk but lovely junk indeed.

> get numerous high quality national polls with Biden lead anywhere from 10-14%
> get another A/B poll with +14
> "probably junk"

[Hope For A New Era]

Only if this wasn’t from a horrendous pollster

Why are you constantly miserable

Trauma.

2016

Then 2020 MASen

Surely MA-SEN 2010 was much more traumatic than 2020?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Will RCP include this in their average? Love to see it when Biden is up by double digits there.

[MillennialModerate]

Only if this wasn’t from a horrendous pollster

Why are you constantly miserable

Trauma.

2016

Then 2020 MASen

Surely MA-SEN 2010 was much more traumatic than 2020?

Not at all.

It was a special election against a horrendous canidate (Coakley). At the time Scott Brown was a fairly decent Republican not a tea party psycho or Trumpnut. And the seat was up again in 2 years. AND the Dems still has the WH, Senate and House. And at that time it seemed unthinkable that would change anytime soon.

For me 2020 MASen was horrific. I truly think if he was our Senator he would do great things for this state well beyond MArKeY who doesn’t give a damn. And I’m convinced if he was ever the Dem Presidential nominee it would be the closest thing to a slam dunk - and aside from my unwavering support for the Kennedys and Joe especially - I also have never liked Markey. He’s always seemed like a fraud who really was just along for the plush life of a senator, a man who doesn’t give a damn and has lost touch with his roots - in fact I voted for Gabriel Gomez (R) in the 2013 MASEN (S)

As for comparing 2020 MASen to 2016 POTUS. I won’t say that. That was truly the worst of the worst. Although even then I dilluded myself into thinking maybe he wouldn’t be so bad. But I walked around aimlessly for a few days. I honesty was surprised politics could have that sort of impact on me. So no I don’t think 20 MASEN was worse - not at all. But it’s definetly second. Definetly.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

MillennialModerate, did you support Lynch in the 2013 Senate primary? No judgment if you did; I actually did too because I perceived him as more of a labor guy and less of a boutique candidate than Markey, although I've since soured on him.

[Eraserhead]

Probably junk but lovely junk indeed.

> get numerous high quality national polls with Biden lead anywhere from 10-14%
> get another A/B poll with +14
> "probably junk"

It's +18 with the high turnout model which you've claimed before is the only one that matters.

His polling lead is about 9 points in the average. Do you really think Biden's lead is double that? Do try to tether yourself to reality somewhat.

[wbrocks67]

Probably junk but lovely junk indeed.

> get numerous high quality national polls with Biden lead anywhere from 10-14%
> get another A/B poll with +14
> "probably junk"

It's +18 with the high turnout model which you've claimed before is the only one that matters.

His polling lead is about 9 points in the average. Do you really think Biden's lead is double that? Do try to tether yourself to reality somewhat.

His polling lead is +11, per 538.

[Eraserhead]

Probably junk but lovely junk indeed.

> get numerous high quality national polls with Biden lead anywhere from 10-14%
> get another A/B poll with +14
> "probably junk"

It's +18 with the high turnout model which you've claimed before is the only one that matters.

His polling lead is about 9 points in the average. Do you really think Biden's lead is double that? Do try to tether yourself to reality somewhat.

His polling lead is +11, per 538.

Cool. His polling lead in that particular aggregate does nothing to change my point.

[MillennialModerate]

MillennialModerate, did you support Lynch in the 2013 Senate primary? No judgment if you did; I actually did too because I perceived him as more of a labor guy and less of a boutique candidate than Markey, although I've since soured on him.

Yes I did. Would’ve voted Lynch over Gomez if he won