Would Republicans have won back the house with the old PA and NC maps?

[Tekken_Guy]

Would Republicans have won back the house if Pennsylvania still used the 2012-16 house map and North Carolina kept the 10-3 map it used for the past two cycles?

[lfromnj]

Which one for NC? The
PA might have actually gone 10-8 in 2018 but would be 7-12 this year.

The Original NC map would have gone 5-8 if I had to bet but the new one would have stayed as 3-10 so +4 R.

[Tekken_Guy]

Which one for NC? The
PA might have actually gone 10-8 in 2018 but would be 7-12 this year.

The Original NC map would have gone 5-8 if I had to bet but the new one would have stayed as 3-10 so +4 R.

For NC, I mean the 2016-20 map.

[bandg]

House control would have come down to NY-22. That would have been fun.

[Roll Roons]

No, but Democrats may have had the absolute slimmest majority possible.

I'm assuming the final House number is 223-212 (D win NY-22, R win CA-25 and IA-02). Republicans lost two seats in NC as a result of the redraw, so the balance would be 221D-214R.

As for PA, the delegation was 13R-5D prior to 2018. Costello and Meehan's districts both went to Clinton, so I think they would have flipped in 2018 and stayed.

Lamb may have won the special, but would have lost in either the 2018 general or this year. Wild only barely won a November 2018 special election under the old lines, so I think she would have gone down this year. So I think the final delegation would be 11R-7D.

That would bring the overall majority to 219D-216R. Wow.

[lfromnj]

No, but Democrats may have had the absolute slimmest majority possible.

I'm assuming the final House number is 223-212 (D win NY-22, R win CA-25 and IA-02). Republicans lost two seats in NC as a result of the redraw, so the balance would be 221D-215R.

As for PA, the delegation was 13R-5D prior to 2018. Costello and Meehan's districts both went to Clinton, so I think they would have flipped in 2018 and stayed.

Lamb may have won the special, but would have lost in either the 2018 general or this year. Wild only barely won a November 2018 special election under the old lines, so I think she would have gone down this year. So I think the final delegation would be 11R-7D.

That would bring the overall majority to 219D-217R. Wow.

Smucker might have lost in 2018 too but the seat flips back this year.

[Tekken_Guy]

Which one for NC? The
PA might have actually gone 10-8 in 2018 but would be 7-12 this year.

The Original NC map would have gone 5-8 if I had to bet but the new one would have stayed as 3-10 so +4 R.

What seats would flip each year?

[Tekken_Guy]

No, but Democrats may have had the absolute slimmest majority possible.

I'm assuming the final House number is 223-212 (D win NY-22, R win CA-25 and IA-02). Republicans lost two seats in NC as a result of the redraw, so the balance would be 221D-214R.

As for PA, the delegation was 13R-5D prior to 2018. Costello and Meehan's districts both went to Clinton, so I think they would have flipped in 2018 and stayed.

Lamb may have won the special, but would have lost in either the 2018 general or this year. Wild only barely won a November 2018 special election under the old lines, so I think she would have gone down this year. So I think the final delegation would be 11R-7D.

That would bring the overall majority to 219D-216R. Wow.

What about Matt Cartwright?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

No, but Democrats may have had the absolute slimmest majority possible.

I'm assuming the final House number is 223-212 (D win NY-22, R win CA-25 and IA-02). Republicans lost two seats in NC as a result of the redraw, so the balance would be 221D-214R.

As for PA, the delegation was 13R-5D prior to 2018. Costello and Meehan's districts both went to Clinton, so I think they would have flipped in 2018 and stayed.

Lamb may have won the special, but would have lost in either the 2018 general or this year. Wild only barely won a November 2018 special election under the old lines, so I think she would have gone down this year. So I think the final delegation would be 11R-7D.

That would bring the overall majority to 219D-216R. Wow.

Cartwright's old seat might have flipped this year too.  It wasn't directly the question, but Republicans also probably lost a couple seats in Florida and Virginia due to mid-decade redistricting.  I think that those are more than enough to flip the House Republican.

[lfromnj]

No, but Democrats may have had the absolute slimmest majority possible.

I'm assuming the final House number is 223-212 (D win NY-22, R win CA-25 and IA-02). Republicans lost two seats in NC as a result of the redraw, so the balance would be 221D-214R.

As for PA, the delegation was 13R-5D prior to 2018. Costello and Meehan's districts both went to Clinton, so I think they would have flipped in 2018 and stayed.

Lamb may have won the special, but would have lost in either the 2018 general or this year. Wild only barely won a November 2018 special election under the old lines, so I think she would have gone down this year. So I think the final delegation would be 11R-7D.

That would bring the overall majority to 219D-216R. Wow.

Cartwright's old seat might have flipped this year too.  It wasn't directly the question, but Republicans also probably lost a couple seats in Florida and Virginia due to mid-decade redistricting.  I think that those are more than enough to flip the House Republican.

Cartwright old seat had the same Trump 2016 numbers so no.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Which one for NC? The
PA might have actually gone 10-8 in 2018 but would be 7-12 this year.

The Original NC map would have gone 5-8 if I had to bet but the new one would have stayed as 3-10 so +4 R.

Which ones in NC

[lfromnj]

Which one for NC? The
PA might have actually gone 10-8 in 2018 but would be 7-12 this year.

The Original NC map would have gone 5-8 if I had to bet but the new one would have stayed as 3-10 so +4 R.

Which ones in NC

The original NC02/NC09 were left trending suburban seats based in Wake/Charlotte that were around Trump +4, certainly flipping in 2018 and I would bet D's hold them in 2020 although not certain.

[Tekken_Guy]

Which one for NC? The
PA might have actually gone 10-8 in 2018 but would be 7-12 this year.

The Original NC map would have gone 5-8 if I had to bet but the new one would have stayed as 3-10 so +4 R.

Which ones in NC

The original NC02/NC09 were left trending suburban seats based in Wake/Charlotte that were around Trump +4, certainly flipping in 2018 and I would bet D's hold them in 2020 although not certain.

What about the old 13?