Is it true that abortion affects crime/economy?

[AGA]

Most of the abortion debate is centered on the rights of the fetus and the rights of the mother, but some turn to consequentialist arguments. For example, people sometimes attribute the drop in crime in the 90s to the effects of Roe v. Wade materializing (although the evidence is dubious) and claim that banning abortion would result in more people on welfare. Is it true that abortion has any significant effect on crime or the economy?

[Ferguson97]

Yes.

We estimate that crime fell roughly 20% between 1997 and 2014 due to legalized abortion. The cumulative impact of legalized abortion on crime is roughly 45%, accounting for a very substantial portion of the roughly 50-55% overall decline from the peak of crime in the early 1990s.

Souce: University of Chicago - Becker Friedman Institute for Research in Economics: https://bfi.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/BFI_WP_201975.pdf

[dead0man]

well it would follow....

If poor women have fewer unwanted kids there are going to be a lot of positive knock on effects for society.  Fewer bad and/or dumb kids in poor schools.


Of course if you keep walking down that road it gets dark pretty quick.

[Horus]

Yes but that's not a good reason to be pro choice.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Steven Levitt in a 2005 NPR interview:

So, my own view, when we [did] the study and it hasn't changed is that: our study shouldn't change anybody's opinion about whether abortion should be legal and easily available or not. It's really a study about crime, not abortion.

We can debate whether the Donohue-Levitt hypothesis is scientifically sound or not, however.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

It's probably true and definitely irrelevant.

[RI]

The original Levitt paper on crime and abortion had huge methodological issues and is no longer regarded as valid in the economics community. Also, the more recent 2019 Levitt paper conveniently ignores data after 2014 because the results no longer hold if you use more recent data. The simple fact seems to be that if you squint and hold your computer in a certain direction, the relationship shows up, but for most years and specifications of the key variables, the result does not hold.

Levitt is a bit of a huckster who is more interested in flashy headlines than proper methodology or replicable results. To be fair, that describes much of modern academic economics, which is part of the reason I left.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

If legal abortion affects crime, then that shows that legal abortion increases the rate of abortion.

[John Dule]

If legal abortion affects crime, then that shows that legal abortion increases the rate of abortion.

Uh... yeah.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

If legal abortion affects crime, then that shows that legal abortion increases the rate of abortion.

Uh... yeah.

Celticempire is bringing this up because a common pro-choice talking point (in some circles) is that abortion bans are so commonly flouted that whether it's legal or not doesn't make any difference to how often it happens. Obviously this is untrue.

[John Dule]

If legal abortion affects crime, then that shows that legal abortion increases the rate of abortion.

Uh... yeah.

Celticempire is bringing this up because a common pro-choice talking point (in some circles) is that abortion bans are so commonly flouted that whether it's legal or not doesn't make any difference to how often it happens. Obviously this is untrue.

Lol, who the hell says that? That's absurd.

[Ferguson97]

If legal abortion affects crime, then that shows that legal abortion increases the rate of abortion.

Uh... yeah.

Celticempire is bringing this up because a common pro-choice talking point (in some circles) is that abortion bans are so commonly flouted that whether it's legal or not doesn't make any difference to how often it happens. Obviously this is untrue.

Lol, who the hell says that? That's absurd.

Evidence says it's true:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/21/health/abortion-restriction-laws/index.html

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/abortion-rates-don-t-drop-when-procedure-outlawed-it-does-ncna1235174

[John Dule]

If legal abortion affects crime, then that shows that legal abortion increases the rate of abortion.

Uh... yeah.

Celticempire is bringing this up because a common pro-choice talking point (in some circles) is that abortion bans are so commonly flouted that whether it's legal or not doesn't make any difference to how often it happens. Obviously this is untrue.

Lol, who the hell says that? That's absurd.

Evidence says it's true:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/21/health/abortion-restriction-laws/index.html

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/abortion-rates-don-t-drop-when-procedure-outlawed-it-does-ncna1235174

Wow, I guess we shouldn't bother restricting access to firearms then. After all, this proves that banning something doesn't make it more difficult to obtain!

[Left Wing]

If legal abortion affects crime, then that shows that legal abortion increases the rate of abortion.

Uh... yeah.

Celticempire is bringing this up because a common pro-choice talking point (in some circles) is that abortion bans are so commonly flouted that whether it's legal or not doesn't make any difference to how often it happens. Obviously this is untrue.

Lol, who the hell says that? That's absurd.

Evidence says it's true:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/21/health/abortion-restriction-laws/index.html

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/abortion-rates-don-t-drop-when-procedure-outlawed-it-does-ncna1235174

Wow, I guess we shouldn't bother restricting access to firearms then. After all, this proves that banning something doesn't make it more difficult to obtain!

To be fair, an abortion is something almost anyone can do on their own. You'd need a 3d printer or something to make your own gun.

[Ferguson97]

If legal abortion affects crime, then that shows that legal abortion increases the rate of abortion.

Uh... yeah.

Celticempire is bringing this up because a common pro-choice talking point (in some circles) is that abortion bans are so commonly flouted that whether it's legal or not doesn't make any difference to how often it happens. Obviously this is untrue.

Lol, who the hell says that? That's absurd.

Evidence says it's true:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/21/health/abortion-restriction-laws/index.html

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/abortion-rates-don-t-drop-when-procedure-outlawed-it-does-ncna1235174

Wow, I guess we shouldn't bother restricting access to firearms then. After all, this proves that banning something doesn't make it more difficult to obtain!

This comparison doesn't work because there's ample evidence to show that gun control is effective.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Of course a thread about whether the Donohue-Levitt hypothesis holds or not becomes a space for pro-something boilerplate.

[DC Al Fine]

If legal abortion affects crime, then that shows that legal abortion increases the rate of abortion.

Uh... yeah.

Celticempire is bringing this up because a common pro-choice talking point (in some circles) is that abortion bans are so commonly flouted that whether it's legal or not doesn't make any difference to how often it happens. Obviously this is untrue.

Lol, who the hell says that? That's absurd.

Evidence says it's true:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/21/health/abortion-restriction-laws/index.html

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/abortion-rates-don-t-drop-when-procedure-outlawed-it-does-ncna1235174

Wow, I guess we shouldn't bother restricting access to firearms then. After all, this proves that banning something doesn't make it more difficult to obtain!

No Dule.

Demand for abortion and firearms is literally more inelastic than demand for heroin

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

If legal abortion affects crime, then that shows that legal abortion increases the rate of abortion.

Uh... yeah.

Celticempire is bringing this up because a common pro-choice talking point (in some circles) is that abortion bans are so commonly flouted that whether it's legal or not doesn't make any difference to how often it happens. Obviously this is untrue.

Lol, who the hell says that? That's absurd.

Evidence says it's true:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/21/health/abortion-restriction-laws/index.html

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/abortion-rates-don-t-drop-when-procedure-outlawed-it-does-ncna1235174

Wow, I guess we shouldn't bother restricting access to firearms then. After all, this proves that banning something doesn't make it more difficult to obtain!

To be fair, an abortion is something almost anyone can do on their own. You'd need a 3d printer or something to make your own gun.

Not if you have an AK-47 blueprint and something to melt scrap metal in.

[DC Al Fine]

It's probably true and definitely irrelevant.

Agreed.

I'd also add that there are all sorts of interventions the state can do to help reduce the the crime that these "excess" children might eventually commit, and that this solution is far more preferable than the ideas taken typically inspired by the Donohue-Levitt hypothesis.

[Red Velvet]

It does, especially regarding crime in places with more social inequality.

In situations where the mother doesn’t want the child but is forced to have them, it’s more likely she won’t love them and if it’s a situation where the father has abandoned the woman and the baby, more chances the kid will grow in a broken home without references.

In these situations, it’s likely that the woman is poor because a rich person would be able to get illegal abortion if they wanted. So the child grows up in a scenario of poverty with no perspectives of a better future, being more likely to join criminality due to this scenario of no opportunities. Happens all the time.

For the economy it’s not really significant but I guess there is a positive effect as well.

[Santander]

If legal abortion affects crime, then that shows that legal abortion increases the rate of abortion.

Uh... yeah.

Celticempire is bringing this up because a common pro-choice talking point (in some circles) is that abortion bans are so commonly flouted that whether it's legal or not doesn't make any difference to how often it happens. Obviously this is untrue.

Lol, who the hell says that? That's absurd.

Evidence says it's true:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/21/health/abortion-restriction-laws/index.html

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/abortion-rates-don-t-drop-when-procedure-outlawed-it-does-ncna1235174

Wow, I guess we shouldn't bother restricting access to firearms then. After all, this proves that banning something doesn't make it more difficult to obtain!

To be fair, an abortion is something almost anyone can do on their own. You'd need a 3d printer or something to make your own gun.

I didn't realize you needed a license to buy a 3D printer.

[John Dule]

If legal abortion affects crime, then that shows that legal abortion increases the rate of abortion.

Uh... yeah.

Celticempire is bringing this up because a common pro-choice talking point (in some circles) is that abortion bans are so commonly flouted that whether it's legal or not doesn't make any difference to how often it happens. Obviously this is untrue.

Lol, who the hell says that? That's absurd.

Evidence says it's true:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/21/health/abortion-restriction-laws/index.html

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/abortion-rates-don-t-drop-when-procedure-outlawed-it-does-ncna1235174

Wow, I guess we shouldn't bother restricting access to firearms then. After all, this proves that banning something doesn't make it more difficult to obtain!

This comparison doesn't work because there's ample evidence to show that gun control is effective.

Effective at doing what?