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October 20, 2020, 12:43:30 PM
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  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  If Ernst loses in 2020, does she try to make a comeback in 2022
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Question: If Ernst loses in 2020, does she try to make a comeback in 2022? If so does she win?
#1
yes, wins
 
#2
yes, loses
 
#3
no
 
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Total Voters: 43

Author Topic: If Ernst loses in 2020, does she try to make a comeback in 2022  (Read 562 times)
Lognog
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« on: October 17, 2020, 04:22:54 PM »

Grassley is done after his term and Ernst is not looking great for reelection. Could she salvage her career after a loss this year?
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1 on: October 17, 2020, 04:27:42 PM »

I think the GOP would what to avoid that. Basically every time a senator tries to reclaimed their seat it never ends well (Feingold 2016), since it makes the politician look too power hungry
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #2 on: October 17, 2020, 04:29:31 PM »

I think the GOP would what to avoid that. Basically every time a senator tries to reclaimed their seat it never ends well (Feingold 2016), since it makes the politician look too power hungry

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988_United_States_Senate_election_in_Washington. Though to be fair, that is pretty much the only semi-recent example I know of a defeated Senator making a successful comeback.
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Lognog
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« Reply #3 on: October 17, 2020, 04:30:03 PM »

I think the GOP would what to avoid that. Basically every time a senator tries to reclaimed their seat it never ends well (Feingold 2016), since it makes the politician look too power hungry

I think the environment would be a lot different. Here you have a well known and well liked former senator (to Republicans that is). She would already have the fundraising networks and name ID. not to mention in the general she would be a shoe-in, not because of any real skill she has, but as she proved in 2014 she ca ride a wave
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #4 on: October 17, 2020, 04:34:52 PM »

If Grassley retires, I wouldn't rule it out.

I think it's more likely, however, that she runs for Governor in the event Kim Reynolds doesn't run for reelection or runs for President, or pulls a Santorum and jumps right into the 2024 Presidential race.
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« Reply #5 on: October 17, 2020, 04:45:41 PM »

I think the GOP would what to avoid that. Basically every time a senator tries to reclaimed their seat it never ends well (Feingold 2016), since it makes the politician look too power hungry

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988_United_States_Senate_election_in_Washington. Though to be fair, that is pretty much the only semi-recent example I know of a defeated Senator making a successful comeback.

You also have the weird situation where, while no one actually lost, Dan Coats declines to run for re-election after Evan Bath decides to enter the race, and twelve years later, Evan Bath decides to retire after Dan Coats enters the race.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #6 on: October 17, 2020, 04:48:54 PM »
« Edited: October 17, 2020, 04:52:04 PM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

It has worked for former statewide officeholders on plenty of occasions. John Thune unseated the Senate majority leader two years after losing his House seat, Mike DeWine made a comeback as governor, etc. This is not even counting candidates who remained row officers after losing a statewide race and went onto win another statewide race (Alison Grimes, probably Matt Rosendale this year, etc.).

All that said, the most prominent recent example if/when Ernst runs again will be McSally and that isn't going to help her at all in the primary, however unfairly any parallels are drawn.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #7 on: October 17, 2020, 04:53:19 PM »

She'd win if she runs (in a Biden midterm) but I don't think she runs.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #8 on: October 17, 2020, 04:55:12 PM »

She'd win if she runs (in a Biden midterm) but I don't think she runs.
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forsythvoter
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« Reply #9 on: October 17, 2020, 05:24:13 PM »

I think Repubs can do better than Ernst. From what I've seen, Ernst doesn't strike me as particularly impressive, even before the soybean price debacle. I've seen some of her ads on Twitter and she doesn't strike me as very authentic (this was especially apparent in her motorcycle ad earlier this cycle), which I would think matters to a lot of non-party aligned voters.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #10 on: October 17, 2020, 10:30:57 PM »

JD Scholten is gonna lose in IA 4, since IA is trending like CO again, when Tom Harkins was in the Senate, which Ernst took over, he would be formidable against Reynolds or Ernst in Gov or Senate race

Competetive gov races are AZ,. iA, KS, MA, MD, NH and PA
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Electoral College Dropout
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« Reply #11 on: October 17, 2020, 10:35:07 PM »

She should just run for some boring row office like state auditor and coast along there for a few terms.
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GeneralMacArthur
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« Reply #12 on: October 17, 2020, 10:37:25 PM »

Oh yes, please run again.  She can be the new Martha McSally.
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MAGugh
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« Reply #13 on: October 17, 2020, 11:03:54 PM »

No.

She holds out and runs a Jim Gilmore-esque Presidential campaign in '24 and spends '21-'23 touring the country, writing, media, etc.
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South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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« Reply #14 on: October 17, 2020, 11:19:00 PM »

It has worked for former statewide officeholders on plenty of occasions. John Thune unseated the Senate majority leader two years after losing his House seat, Mike DeWine made a comeback as governor, etc. This is not even counting candidates who remained row officers after losing a statewide race and went onto win another statewide race (Alison Grimes, probably Matt Rosendale this year, etc.).

All that said, the most prominent recent example if/when Ernst runs again will be McSally and that isn't going to help her at all in the primary, however unfairly any parallels are drawn.

Not sure if you intended this, but your post makes it sound like Thune lost reelection to the House.  He gave up his House seat to challenge Tim Johnson for Senate in 2002, and lost by about 500 votes, and then beat Daschle in 2004 by about a percentage point.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #15 on: October 17, 2020, 11:23:01 PM »

I don't know. I guess we'll just have to wait and see but I have a feeling that a lot of the more embarrassing Trump sycophants, especially the ones that lose, are not going to have a bright political future.
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Xing
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« Reply #16 on: October 17, 2020, 11:53:37 PM »

I doubt it, and while she’d win against a Democrat in a Biden midterm, I doubt she’d win the primary.
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #17 on: October 18, 2020, 07:37:05 AM »

Pat Grassley either clears the primary field or easily beats Ernst.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #18 on: October 18, 2020, 09:07:25 AM »

Iowa before 2014 was a D state with Tom Harkins, Scholten is a rising star in IA politics
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JMT
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« Reply #19 on: October 18, 2020, 10:42:11 AM »

I don't think she runs, because I'm not sure she would win the primary. I think Pat Grassley will win the Senate race in 2022. Another possibility is Ashley Hinson (although, I think Hinson will lose this year and will run in a rematch against Finkenauer for IA-01 in 2022).
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Orser67
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« Reply #20 on: October 18, 2020, 01:13:15 PM »

I have no idea if she (or Grassley, for that matter) would want to run again, but I imagine she'd be a pretty strong candidate if she did. Republicans don't seem to have much of a bench (unless Reynolds wants to switch jobs) and IA would be a really tough pick-up for Democrats in a Democratic mid-term (assuming Biden wins, obviously).
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