MI(Trafalgar) - James+1
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November 29, 2021, 01:00:53 PM

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Author Topic: MI(Trafalgar) - James+1  (Read 1356 times)
MplsDem
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« on: October 17, 2020, 10:38:47 AM »

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/mi-sen-1020/

James 48
Peters 47

1018 LV
10/11-10/15
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Southern Delegate Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #1 on: October 17, 2020, 10:39:48 AM »

Trafalgar: overpolling Republicans since 1805
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VAR
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« Reply #2 on: October 17, 2020, 10:39:56 AM »

It’s actually James +1, Peters is at 47%
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #3 on: October 17, 2020, 10:46:52 AM »

Changes with September 26-28 poll for the Restoration PAC
1018 likely voters
October 11-15
MoE: 2.99%

James 48% (+1)
Peters 47% (-2)
Someone else 3% (+1 from "Another party candidate" at 2%)
Undecided 3% (-1)
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #4 on: October 17, 2020, 10:49:58 AM »

Something funny is up when a poll shows fewer undecides in the senate race than the Presidential race.
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GALeftist
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« Reply #5 on: October 17, 2020, 10:50:55 AM »

Gosh, Traf's crosstabs are really bad. It's hard for me to meaningfully criticize them when I don't even know where their numbers come from.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #6 on: October 17, 2020, 01:39:46 PM »

Something funny is up when a poll shows fewer undecides in the senate race than the Presidential race.
I mean...these are the exact same people responding to both races. I don't see how there can be anything 'funny' going on with this.

I'm sure this poll oversamples Republicans though, it's more useful to note that James is running about a point ahead of Trump but not more than that and that he has improved a few points since their last poll. Therefore, if the baseline was like Peters + 7 previously, it's fair to think that Peters is ahead by more like 3-5 now.

Lean D.
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Primary the Squad
Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #7 on: October 17, 2020, 01:43:11 PM »

Honestly, if the shy Trump effect shows up in the Midwest again, while the massive Dem turnout that's expected happens in other areas along with elevated African-American turnout, you could see some really weird results on election day like a Republican winning MI Senate while Trump loses North Carolina and Arizona.
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SN2903
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« Reply #8 on: October 17, 2020, 04:17:25 PM »

Enjoy your retirement Gary!
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Mr. MANDELA BARNES
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« Reply #9 on: October 17, 2020, 07:20:11 PM »

Honestly, if the shy Trump effect shows up in the Midwest again, while the massive Dem turnout that's expected happens in other areas along with elevated African-American turnout, you could see some really weird results on election day like a Republican winning MI Senate while Trump loses North Carolina and Arizona.

D's aren't losing MI, it's a Cook 4 PVI state in a close election, but the election is not over
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TML
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« Reply #10 on: October 17, 2020, 10:18:37 PM »


I can't wait to see your reaction to realizing that these words were said six years ahead of schedule.
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ultraviolet
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« Reply #11 on: October 18, 2020, 09:22:20 AM »


Thanks I will!

...in six years
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Suburbia
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« Reply #12 on: October 18, 2020, 01:03:00 PM »

Peters will win by 2-5, maybe

James has no path because he spoke about BLM in the GOP
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SN2903
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« Reply #13 on: October 18, 2020, 03:44:34 PM »

Peters will win by 2-5, maybe

James has no path because he spoke about BLM in the GOP
LOL what? James is just as popular as Trump in Michigan..maybe even a little more. He's gonna get almost every Trump voter plus some Biden voters from Oakland county. James will win by 1.5 2%.
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GALeftist
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« Reply #14 on: October 18, 2020, 06:01:22 PM »

Peters will win by 2-5, maybe

James has no path because he spoke about BLM in the GOP
LOL what? James is just as popular as Trump in Michigan..maybe even a little more. He's gonna get almost every Trump voter plus some Biden voters from Oakland county. James will win by 1.5 2%.

>Be me
>Oakland suburbanite
>Obama, Romney, Johnson
>Hate Trump, but don't pay that much attention to politics, so think he'll probably win
>Definitely voting Biden
>Filling out absentee ballot in my home with a Biden Harris sign in the lawn
>US Senate section
>Inoffensive incumbent (D)
>Think I remember wife saying something about how he had a touching abortion story
>Some military guy (R)
>All I remember is he said he supported Trump 2000%
>Hmm I think I will vote for the Republican

SN believes that this man exists
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Badger
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« Reply #15 on: October 19, 2020, 12:22:52 AM »

Peters will win by 2-5, maybe

James has no path because he spoke about BLM in the GOP
LOL what? James is just as popular as Trump in Michigan..maybe even a little more. He's gonna get almost every Trump voter plus some Biden voters from Oakland county. James will win by 1.5 2%.

Nothing whatsoever convince you to be even the slightest teeniest bit more circumspect in such wild conclusions after you predicted the same thing like a broken record the last time he ran for Senate, did it?

Seriously, every single one of your posts she just be soundtracked with caliope music
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #16 on: October 21, 2020, 12:08:39 AM »

New Poll: Michigan Senator by Trafalgar Group on 2020-10-15

Summary: D: 47%, R: 48%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #17 on: November 28, 2020, 01:24:15 PM »

Mmmmmm

Scrumptious
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lfromnj
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« Reply #18 on: November 28, 2020, 06:13:32 PM »
« Edited: November 28, 2020, 06:17:21 PM by lfromnj »

Peters will win by 2-5, maybe

James has no path because he spoke about BLM in the GOP
LOL what? James is just as popular as Trump in Michigan..maybe even a little more. He's gonna get almost every Trump voter plus some Biden voters from Oakland county. James will win by 1.5 2%.

>Be me
>Oakland suburbanite
>Obama, Romney, Johnson
>Hate Trump, but don't pay that much attention to politics, so think he'll probably win
>Definitely voting Biden
>Filling out absentee ballot in my home with a Biden Harris sign in the lawn
>US Senate section
>Inoffensive incumbent (D)
>Think I remember wife saying something about how he had a touching abortion story
>Some military guy (R)
>All I remember is he said he supported Trump 2000%
>Hmm I think I will vote for the Republican

SN believes that this man exists
Kent County MI
Biden +6
James +1

This was the entire point of running a black candidate , they feel less guilty about voting a black R especially after the BLM stuff.
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Senator WD
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« Reply #19 on: November 28, 2020, 09:56:57 PM »

Peters will win by 2-5, maybe

James has no path because he spoke about BLM in the GOP
LOL what? James is just as popular as Trump in Michigan..maybe even a little more. He's gonna get almost every Trump voter plus some Biden voters from Oakland county. James will win by 1.5 2%.

>Be me
>Oakland suburbanite
>Obama, Romney, Johnson
>Hate Trump, but don't pay that much attention to politics, so think he'll probably win
>Definitely voting Biden
>Filling out absentee ballot in my home with a Biden Harris sign in the lawn
>US Senate section
>Inoffensive incumbent (D)
>Think I remember wife saying something about how he had a touching abortion story
>Some military guy (R)
>All I remember is he said he supported Trump 2000%
>Hmm I think I will vote for the Republican

SN believes that this man exists
Kent County MI
Biden +6
James +1

This was the entire point of running a black candidate , they feel less guilty about voting a black R especially after the BLM stuff.

Oakland County in particular was Biden+14 and Peters+11, so their definitely were some (although not too many) Biden-James voters there. On the other hand #populist  Purple heart Macomb County was Trump+ 8.1 and James + 5.7, a 2.4% overperformance for Peters. Also, in Bay County, the result was: Trump+11.6 and James+7.2! Looks like #MotorcyclesMatter. Senator Peters knows his state.
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EastOfEden
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« Reply #20 on: November 28, 2020, 11:52:44 PM »

Oakland County in particular was Biden+14 and Peters+11, so their definitely were some (although not too many) Biden-James voters there. On the other hand #populist  Purple heart Macomb County was Trump+ 8.1 and James + 5.7, a 2.4% overperformance for Peters. Also, in Bay County, the result was: Trump+11.6 and James+7.2! Looks like #MotorcyclesMatter. Senator Peters knows his state.

That's not Peters knowing his state, that's realignment. From the top of the ballot down.
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Senator WD
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« Reply #21 on: November 29, 2020, 12:01:43 AM »

Oakland County in particular was Biden+14 and Peters+11, so their definitely were some (although not too many) Biden-James voters there. On the other hand #populist  Purple heart Macomb County was Trump+ 8.1 and James + 5.7, a 2.4% overperformance for Peters. Also, in Bay County, the result was: Trump+11.6 and James+7.2! Looks like #MotorcyclesMatter. Senator Peters knows his state.

That's not Peters knowing his state, that's realignment. From the top of the ballot down.

I was kidding about “knowing” the state.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #22 on: November 30, 2020, 04:11:05 PM »

How will SN feel when he learns that James got less votes than Trump in Wayne county....
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AGA
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« Reply #23 on: November 30, 2020, 07:24:37 PM »

Someone should make a county map where Biden overperformed Peters.
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