GOP riding high on "very temporary" demographic waves...
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  GOP riding high on "very temporary" demographic waves...
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Author Topic: GOP riding high on "very temporary" demographic waves...  (Read 1880 times)
Brandern
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« on: August 28, 2020, 08:45:36 PM »

The thing that is fueling Republican success right now is not necessarily race, although we know they are eroding like mad there as well.

It is age. Republicans currently have in the "currently alive and voting demographic" two nice little cohorts of voters.

They are the Silents, who were born from 1928-1945. Especially among voters, the 1935-1945 demo is very strong for Republicans, as these are the people who were came of age with Ike, the red scares of the 50's, and got lots of anti-communist indoctrination. These are the folks that are SO SCARED of socialism.

The other fun living demo the Republicans have are late Baby Boomers and early Gen X, the Silents children. These folks were born from about 1960-1972 and came of age with Reagan. In their peak earning years, they were handily indoctrinated by their parents and by the greatest actor-president of all time.

Republicans are feeding off the fact that the Greatest Generation is nearly gone. These people and those immediately older were exposed to the liberal world of the Roaring 20's, the economic pain of the 1930's, and the can-do spirit of World War II. They came up with FDR and Truman and loved them.

For me, Betty Ford always kind of exemplified this era for me. These people talked sex in 1940 and in 1975 with their children, because they were more liberal than the canned hams that came after them. (See Carson, Johnny and Hefner, Hugh)

So now that all of these cool Greatest are gone, we got a bunch of crotchety "new" olds and a bunch of risk-averse, now-boring middle aged people who like to drone about taxes and "freedumb" like Kavanaugh, Brett (See Porky's)  

The only saving graces of our country are the Older Boomers (1946-1958) who saw how badly Nixon screwed up, and their children, the Millennials. But once the Silents go completely Silent, the illusory power the Republicans hold will become increasingly clear...
 
...and then there's the Zoomers! Seriously is anyone under 40 a Republican?

Not that I know of? Cause the Republicans have been worthless and screwed up world since the GW days...when you come of age with that level of failing, it's hard to fall for their propaganda.
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Annatar
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« Reply #1 on: August 28, 2020, 09:19:21 PM »

The most Republican voting age group in 2016 were people born between 1956-1966. 
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Brandern
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« Reply #2 on: August 28, 2020, 09:59:07 PM »

The most Republican voting age group in 2016 were people born between 1956-1966. 

Just think, in 15-odd years they will be the leading proponents of fascism if we haven't achieved it yet!
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Hope For A New Era
EastOfEden
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« Reply #3 on: August 28, 2020, 10:40:49 PM »

...and then there's the Zoomers! Seriously is anyone under 40 a Republican?

There are under-40 Republicans, but you won't find any Republicans under about 28 or so. I know exactly one in real life, and I've literally never lived anywhere other than very white middle-class suburbs in solidly Republican states.

Also, I think the high Democratic turnout of the last few years won't go away when Trump is gone. For a long time we will be very determined to not let another Trump happen.
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AthenaCannon
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« Reply #4 on: August 28, 2020, 10:51:27 PM »

...and then there's the Zoomers! Seriously is anyone under 40 a Republican?

There are under-40 Republicans, but you won't find any Republicans under about 28 or so. I know exactly one in real life, and I've literally never lived anywhere other than very white middle-class suburbs in solidly Republican states.

Also, I think the high Democratic turnout of the last few years won't go away when Trump is gone. For a long time we will be very determined to not let another Trump happen.

You obviously live in a massive bubble then. Pew consistently finds that among ages 18-25 only ~60% identify with the Dems while 30% or so lean R. That's certainly not "zero". Saying you know only one IRL is absurd.
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Hope For A New Era
EastOfEden
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« Reply #5 on: August 29, 2020, 12:20:47 AM »
« Edited: August 29, 2020, 12:36:24 AM by EastOfEden »

...and then there's the Zoomers! Seriously is anyone under 40 a Republican?

There are under-40 Republicans, but you won't find any Republicans under about 28 or so. I know exactly one in real life, and I've literally never lived anywhere other than very white middle-class suburbs in solidly Republican states.

Also, I think the high Democratic turnout of the last few years won't go away when Trump is gone. For a long time we will be very determined to not let another Trump happen.

You obviously live in a massive bubble then. Pew consistently finds that among ages 18-25 only ~60% identify with the Dems while 30% or so lean R. That's certainly not "zero". Saying you know only one IRL is absurd.

Never said I didn't.

I know young conservatives, but virtually all of them dislike the current Republican Party. I imagine that's the suburban realignment at work.
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Orwell
JacksonHitchcock
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« Reply #6 on: August 29, 2020, 10:36:59 AM »

I know many Republicans, but my school skews wealthy and it is in ground zero for Republican success in Wisconsin (WOW), one of my football coaches has a sticker saying "Fight the Recall Vote Scott Walker" and a "Romney/Ryan" sticker on his truck.
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Person Man
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« Reply #7 on: August 31, 2020, 04:43:45 PM »

They are definitely in Florida. This half explains why Florida is so Republican.
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SenatorCouzens
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« Reply #8 on: September 01, 2020, 10:12:34 AM »

...and then there's the Zoomers! Seriously is anyone under 40 a Republican?

There are under-40 Republicans, but you won't find any Republicans under about 28 or so. I know exactly one in real life, and I've literally never lived anywhere other than very white middle-class suburbs in solidly Republican states.

Also, I think the high Democratic turnout of the last few years won't go away when Trump is gone. For a long time we will be very determined to not let another Trump happen.

How is this possible? I know several young middle class people in Macomb and Oakland counties in Michigan (neither are "solidly Republican" and both are basically evenly split) and know a lot of young Republicans (and Democrats). How old are you?
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #9 on: September 01, 2020, 11:04:53 AM »

Did this avatar-less joke just call the Roaring '20s liberal?
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #10 on: September 02, 2020, 03:42:47 AM »

Did this avatar-less joke just call the Roaring '20s liberal?

I am trying to imagine your frustration with their last sentence as a 28-year-old Republican.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #11 on: September 03, 2020, 11:44:28 PM »

Did this avatar-less joke just call the Roaring '20s liberal?

Depends on your definition of liberal.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #12 on: September 04, 2020, 09:54:53 AM »

Did this avatar-less joke just call the Roaring '20s liberal?

Depends on your definition of liberal.

I think you know the one I was using there, though, and given the lack of intellectual impressiveness in the rest of the OP's post, I am guessing he was using that one, as well.
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Bismarck
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« Reply #13 on: September 04, 2020, 11:14:22 AM »

The two republican groups you identify correspond to my grandparents and parents. I wouldn’t be so harsh, they are lovely people, but they are quite republican. Also, I am under 28, educated, and vote republican. Me and RINO Tom (although maybe he’s older I don’t know) exist.
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AGA
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« Reply #14 on: September 04, 2020, 10:31:31 PM »

Isn't Biden leading with the silent generation?
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Samof94
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« Reply #15 on: September 08, 2020, 12:09:54 PM »

I know a few young Republicans. They tend to be rather religious in general.
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Red Wall
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« Reply #16 on: September 08, 2020, 01:35:50 PM »

The wave has been temporary since Reagan but if the gop keeps gaining ground with wwc eventually a PV tie gives them 350 evs.

Last year all of PA, WI, MI, MN and NH voted more Republican than the nation and states like Maine could follow suit. Meanwhile NC, GA, TX are voting much more Republican than the nation. They aren't the Virginias and Colorados people claim to. 2008 Colorado voted more dem than the nation and Virginia was slightly more R. Only state dems have a chance to do something similar is AZ.
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #17 on: September 08, 2020, 08:52:05 PM »

why do unimpressive people always berate the intellect of others?
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GeorgeBFree
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« Reply #18 on: September 08, 2020, 11:57:29 PM »

Millennial and Gen Z men are more Republican than perceived by this forum (even among the educated who live in blue states). The reason why educated voters as whole seem to be moving left is because women continue to grow as a larger percentage of college graduates and millennials who attended college at higher rates than generations before and after them. Millennials as a generation are left leaning structurally, so they make it look like all the sudden college voters are swinging left when actually a boom liberal voters are just graduating college.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #19 on: September 09, 2020, 12:07:58 AM »
« Edited: September 09, 2020, 12:15:33 AM by RINO Tom »

why do unimpressive people always berate the intellect of others?

Don’t be so hard on yourself!
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #20 on: September 09, 2020, 01:20:44 AM »
« Edited: September 09, 2020, 01:34:23 AM by Non Swing Voter »

why do unimpressive people always berate the intellect of others?

Don’t be so hard on yourself!

I'm going to remove this response.  No reason to stoop to this individual's level here.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #21 on: September 09, 2020, 01:22:17 AM »

why do unimpressive people always berate the intellect of others?

Don’t be so hard on yourself!

The rage, the "lack of intellectual impressiveness."  I can see why you're a Republican despite being in a low income bracket!

Lol
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #22 on: September 09, 2020, 01:36:12 AM »

The thing that is fueling Republican success right now is not necessarily race, although we know they are eroding like mad there as well.

It is age. Republicans currently have in the "currently alive and voting demographic" two nice little cohorts of voters.

They are the Silents, who were born from 1928-1945. Especially among voters, the 1935-1945 demo is very strong for Republicans, as these are the people who were came of age with Ike, the red scares of the 50's, and got lots of anti-communist indoctrination. These are the folks that are SO SCARED of socialism.

The other fun living demo the Republicans have are late Baby Boomers and early Gen X, the Silents children. These folks were born from about 1960-1972 and came of age with Reagan. In their peak earning years, they were handily indoctrinated by their parents and by the greatest actor-president of all time.

Republicans are feeding off the fact that the Greatest Generation is nearly gone. These people and those immediately older were exposed to the liberal world of the Roaring 20's, the economic pain of the 1930's, and the can-do spirit of World War II. They came up with FDR and Truman and loved them.

For me, Betty Ford always kind of exemplified this era for me. These people talked sex in 1940 and in 1975 with their children, because they were more liberal than the canned hams that came after them. (See Carson, Johnny and Hefner, Hugh)

So now that all of these cool Greatest are gone, we got a bunch of crotchety "new" olds and a bunch of risk-averse, now-boring middle aged people who like to drone about taxes and "freedumb" like Kavanaugh, Brett (See Porky's)  

The only saving graces of our country are the Older Boomers (1946-1958) who saw how badly Nixon screwed up, and their children, the Millennials. But once the Silents go completely Silent, the illusory power the Republicans hold will become increasingly clear...
 
...and then there's the Zoomers! Seriously is anyone under 40 a Republican?

Not that I know of? Cause the Republicans have been worthless and screwed up world since the GW days...when you come of age with that level of failing, it's hard to fall for their propaganda.


GW was, as you note, the fall of the GOP not Trump.  That's when the deplorables started migrating en masse to the GOP and it was no longer a party that suited the suburbs.  Trump is just the endpoint of that transition.

I doubt GW would have won the popular vote in 2004 if it weren't for 9/11.
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Brandern
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« Reply #23 on: October 19, 2020, 04:35:57 PM »

Isn't Biden leading with the silent generation?

Ah, yeah, after Trump killed half of their friends and trapped them at home for a year...

(Also, older boomers are senior citizens now too...)
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Vosem
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« Reply #24 on: October 19, 2020, 06:08:32 PM »

...and then there's the Zoomers! Seriously is anyone under 40 a Republican?

There are under-40 Republicans, but you won't find any Republicans under about 28 or so. I know exactly one in real life, and I've literally never lived anywhere other than very white middle-class suburbs in solidly Republican states.

Also, I think the high Democratic turnout of the last few years won't go away when Trump is gone. For a long time we will be very determined to not let another Trump happen.

This is called selection bias: my circle of friends in our 20s is largely right-wing. I don't doubt that the generation as a whole is quite left-wing, though. (Though 2016 exit polling showed reverse age gaps in rural white areas; Democrats are being held up by margins with old folks in states like Iowa and Maine. Nationally the GOP as currently constituted is doomed across most of the country, though.) What will probably happen here is that the issues motivating the parties will shift over time; since their current positioning is just not an electoral winner Republicans are unlikely to maintain it.

Anyway, turnout in the United States virtually always falls under a Democratic presidency and rises during a Republican one, and structural factors are largely pushing it downward and not upward (like the collapse of local news and organized religion, which drove turnout in the past). The Trump bubble in mass political interest is probably a bubble, even if it pops slowly rather than quickly. And I'm inclined to think it'll pop quickly -- the 2008 enthusiasm popped in months rather than years, and congressional numbers mean it'll be harder for Biden to mount an aggressive agenda than it was for Obama even in the most optimistic landslide.

I doubt GW would have won the popular vote in 2004 if it weren't for 9/11.

Under the 2016 alignment, assuming high polarization, the GOP doesn't need a national popular vote victory for a filibuster-proof Senate majority, and can hold a bare majority way out to huge Democratic victories (note that Biden is winning by 10 points right now per 538, but the median Senate result is just 51D-49R; Republicans holding the Senate remains quite possible). This is a bad metric under our current constitutional system.

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