If there is an open seat in NJ senate 2024...

[Lognog]

who runs? who wins?

[Ferguson97]

So obviously this is in the case of a Menendez retirement. (Which is unlikely, he said he's running for re-election here: https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/menendez-intends-to-run-again-in-2024/)

Republican nominee is irrelevant since the race is Safe D.

Democratic primary candidates could be:

Frank Pallone

Mikie Sherrill

Josh Gottheimer

Sheila Oliver

Some lower-profile state representatives/senators

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

There are a lot of people who would be interested in moving up from the delegation, but right now I'd say Mikie Sherrill has the best chance. She's the right political leaning to have an easy victory.

If he gets re-elected and has a good second term, I could also see Murphy running and handing the state over for the last year of his second term.

The Republican bench in NJ is so weak that I have a hard time seeing the general election being too competitive unless the Dems make a very dumb choice in the primary - and I struggle to think who that could be.

[Lognog]

So obviously this is in the case of a Menendez retirement. (Which is unlikely, he said he's running for re-election here: https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/menendez-intends-to-run-again-in-2024/)

Republican nominee is irrelevant since the race is Safe D.

Democratic primary candidates could be:

Frank Pallone

Mikie Sherrill

Josh Gottheimer

Sheila Oliver

Some lower-profile state representatives/senators

I know Pallone ran for senate in 2013, but not he's energy chair, would he give that up?

since Menendez almost lost in 2018 would he lose in 2024

[Roll Roons]

So obviously this is in the case of a Menendez retirement. (Which is unlikely, he said he's running for re-election here: https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/menendez-intends-to-run-again-in-2024/)

Republican nominee is irrelevant since the race is Safe D.

Democratic primary candidates could be:

Frank Pallone

Mikie Sherrill

Josh Gottheimer

Sheila Oliver

Some lower-profile state representatives/senators

I know Pallone ran for senate in 2013, but not he's energy chair, would he give that up?

since Menendez almost lost in 2018 would he lose in 2024

Pallone didn't have to give up his House seat to run in 2013, but he would in 2024. And you're right - there's no reason he would go from being chairman/ranking member of a very powerful House Committee to become a freshman Senator in his 70s.

Menendez won by 11 points. That's not almost losing lol. Despite his unpopularity and many issues, I think he would still be favored, although if 2024 shapes up to be a great year for the GOP, it's not impossible that they find their own version of Jaime Harrison who turns it into a real race.

[Lognog]

So obviously this is in the case of a Menendez retirement. (Which is unlikely, he said he's running for re-election here: https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/menendez-intends-to-run-again-in-2024/)

Republican nominee is irrelevant since the race is Safe D.

Democratic primary candidates could be:

Frank Pallone

Mikie Sherrill

Josh Gottheimer

Sheila Oliver

Some lower-profile state representatives/senators

I know Pallone ran for senate in 2013, but not he's energy chair, would he give that up?

since Menendez almost lost in 2018 would he lose in 2024

Pallone didn't have to give up his House seat to run in 2013, but he would in 2024. And you're right - there's no reason he would go from being chairman/ranking member of a very powerful House Committee to become a freshman Senator in his 70s.

Menendez won by 11 points. That's not almost losing lol. Despite his unpopularity and many issues, I think he would still be favored, although if 2024 shapes up to be a great year for the GOP, it's not impossible that they find their own version of Jaime Harrison who turns it into a real race.

almost lost is a bit of an overstatement but when I said that I was talking about the primary. yes, he got 60% of the vote, however that is very low given the challenger was a no name with no funding. His approvals amount democrats in a primary isn't great. all you need is one young and energetic challenger and its a real race.

and of course its going to be safe D no matter what