Pennsylvania
Joe Biden (D): 3,146,664 votes, 49% ✓
Donald Trump (R): 3,117,206 votes, 48%
Wanted to start off with my home state of PA. President Trump nearly maxes out rural PA but Biden does better than Clinton in those areas. Biden also is able to improve enough in the collar counties (Delco 63-35, Montco 60-38, Chester 55-41). Suburbia trends leftward and Trump won't be able to overcome these margins. Joe Biden, with his working class & native son appeal from Scranton, is able to make in roads in Lackawanna county, PA to win it by 8 points (53-45). Biden is also able to flip back Erie, PA due to bringing back disaffected Dems (don't quote me on this one).
The only way I can see Trump winning PA again is maxing out rural PA + Erie + Bucks + holding Biden to under 60% in the collar counties. He will need to pull all of those off in order to win with at least 49%. It's possible but unlikely.
Damn some of the county percentages and the margins here are near spot-on.
Let me go through each of these, one by one:
Joe Biden (D): 3,146,664 votes, 49% ✓
Donald Trump (R): 3,117,206 votes, 48%
The election final numbers were 3,458,229 (50.01%) - 3,377,674 (48.84%), so the main issues with your forecast were that you underestimated voter turnout and you overestimated support for third-parties. The margin, though, is quite accurate, with your margin being ~1%, and the final margin being 1.17%. A better forecast than FiveThirtyEight, which predicted a 4.7% margin of victory in favor of Joe Biden, and I assume most others on this forum as well.
President Trump nearly maxes out rural PA but Biden does better than Clinton in those areas.
I'm not sure what you mean by maxing out, but you are correct that Biden did slightly better in most rural counties, if
I'm reading this map correctly.Biden also is able to improve enough in the collar counties (Delco 63-35, Montco 60-38, Chester 55-41).
Delaware County's final result was 63 - 36, Montgomery County's final result was 63 - 36, Chester County's final result was 58 - 41. Once again an overestimation of third-party results, but a very robust prediction overall.
Suburbia trends leftward and Trump won't be able to overcome these margins.
That happened.
Joe Biden, with his working class & native son appeal from Scranton, is able to make in roads in Lackawanna county, PA to win it by 8 points (53-45).
Reading this is what caught my eye and prompted me to write this comment down in the first place. I searched up Lackawanna County's election result, and it was 54 - 45, near the exact margin you mentioned. Nicely done there.
Biden is also able to flip back Erie, PA due to bringing back disaffected Dems (don't quote me on this one).
Biden ended up winning Erie County by 50 - 49.
Overall, Pennsylvania was a decent prediction; I can't say the same about most of the other states' predictions, though.
