My projections thread

[Ferguson97]

I can see Trump losing Maricopa and still winning the state.

Not at all.

[CivicParticipant]

I think you're looking at 2016 data and ignoring clear indications from early voting.

I have been taking that into account while adjusting my projections.

[Hammy]

Why do all of your predictions have unrealistically high third party votes? They're polling far below what you're showing, and always end up gaining less than polls indicate in the end.

[CivicParticipant]

Final 2020 National County Map

U.S. Nationwide Totals:

President Donald J. Trump (R-FL) / Vice President Michael R. Pence (R-IN) - 286 electoral votes, 47.52%
Fmr. Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. (D-DE) / Senator Kamala D. Harris (D-CA) - 252 electoral votes, 49.28%
Others - 0 electoral votes, 3.20%


State-wide projections:

ALABAMA   - Trump 60%, Biden 35%, R +25
ALASKA   - Trump 55%, Biden 41%, R +14
ARIZONA   - Trump 49%, Biden 46%, R +3
ARKANSAS - Trump 59%, Biden 35%, R +24
CALIFORNIA - Biden 63%, Trump 31%, D +32
COLORADO - Biden 50%, Trump 42%, D +8
CONNECTICUT - Biden 55%, Trump 39%, D +14
DELAWARE - Biden 61%, Trump 37%, D +24
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA - Biden 92%, Trump 6%, D +86
FLORIDA - Trump 49%, Biden 47%, R +2
GEORGIA - Trump 50%, Biden 46.5%, R +3.5
HAWAII - Biden 63%, Trump 32%, D +31
IDAHO - Trump 60%, Biden 34%, R +26
ILLINOIS - Biden 55%, Trump 38%, D +17
INDIANA - Trump 56%, Biden 39%, R +17
IOWA - Trump 50%, Biden 45%, R +5
KANSAS - Trump 57%, Biden 42%, R +15
KENTUCKY    - Trump 61%, Biden 37%, R +24
LOUISIANA - Trump 57%, Biden 39%, R +18
MAINE - Biden 51%, Trump 45%, D +6
MAINE-01 - Biden 53%, Trump 39%, D +14
MAINE-02 - Trump 50%, Biden 46%, R +4
MARYLAND - Biden 65%, Trump 32% D +33
MASSACHUSETTS - Biden 65%, Trump 31% D +34
MICHIGAN - Trump 48%, Biden 47% R +1
MINNESOTA - Biden 49%, Trump 46.5% D +2.5   
MISSISSIPPI - Trump 56%, Biden 41%, R +15
MISSOURI   - Trump 53%, Biden 43%, R +10
MONTANA   - Trump 55%, Biden 42%, R +13
NEBRASKA - Trump 60%, Biden 38%, R +22
NEBRASKA-01 - Trump 58%, Biden 41%, R +17
NEBRASKA-02 - Trump 49%, Biden 47%, R +2
NEBRASKA-03 - Trump 73%, Biden 26%, R +46
NEVADA - Biden 47%, Trump 45%, D +2
NEW HAMPSHIRE - Biden 50%, Trump 46%, D +4
NEW JERSEY - Biden 57%, Trump 40%, D +17
NEW MEXICO - Biden 52%, Trump 42%, D +10
NEW YORK - Biden 60%, Trump 38%, D +19
NORTH CAROLINA - Trump 50%, Biden 47%, R +3
NORTH DAKOTA   - Trump 62%, Biden 35%, R +27
OHIO - Trump 50%, Biden 46%, R +4
OKLAHOMA - Trump 64%, Biden 34%, R +30
OREGON - Biden 54%, Trump 40%, D +14
PENNSYLVANIA - Biden 49%, Trump 48%, D +1
RHODE ISLAND   - Biden 61%, Trump 37%, D +24
SOUTH CAROLINA - Trump 54%, Biden 42%, R +12
SOUTH DAKOTA   - Trump 59%, Biden 37%, R +22
TENNESSEE - Trump 60%, Biden 36%, R +24
TEXAS - Trump 50%, Biden 45%, R +5
UTAH - Trump 55%, Biden 36%, R +19
VERMONT - Biden 60%, Trump 33% D +27
VIRGINIA - Biden 51%, Trump 44%, D +7
WASHINGTON - Biden 58%, Trump 38%, D +20
WEST VIRGINIA - Trump 65%, Biden 32%, R +33
WISCONSIN - Trump 49%, Biden 47%, R +2
WYOMING   - Trump 66%, Biden 30%, R +36

[GeorgiaModerate]

A Biden PV win of less than 1 point?  How in the world is this supported by any bit of data to date?

[Ferguson97]

Spark can I ask why you think the polls are 10 points off?

[Coconut Decider]

Final 2020 National County Map



Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. (D-DE) / Senator Kamala D. Harris (D-CA) - 48.7%
President Donald J. Trump (R-FL) / Vice President Michael R. Pence (R-IN) - 47.8%

Red Johnson County, KS... LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[CivicParticipant]

A Biden PV win of less than 1 point?  How in the world is this supported by any bit of data to date?

Supported by the early voting data.

[ProgressiveModerate]

A Biden PV win of less than 1 point?  How in the world is this supported by any bit of data to date?

Supported by the early voting data.

Hasn’t the highest rates of early voting been in Democratic Counties?

[CivicParticipant]

A Biden PV win of less than 1 point?  How in the world is this supported by any bit of data to date?

Supported by the early voting data.

Hasn’t the highest rates of early voting been in Democratic Counties?

Yes, but the in-person Election Day vote will be heavily R.

[Hammy]

Is it me or do people start thinking their takes are infallible once they major in a subject?

[GeorgiaModerate]

A Biden PV win of less than 1 point?  How in the world is this supported by any bit of data to date?

Supported by the early voting data.

Hasn’t the highest rates of early voting been in Democratic Counties?

Yes, but the in-person Election Day vote will be heavily R.

You need to put some numbers behind your reasoning for anyone to take it seriously.

[ProgressiveModerate]

A Biden PV win of less than 1 point?  How in the world is this supported by any bit of data to date?

Supported by the early voting data.

Hasn’t the highest rates of early voting been in Democratic Counties?

Yes, but the in-person Election Day vote will be heavily R.

We don’t know what we don’t know, but Rs have a lot of ground to make up in certain states.

A lot of your prediction is purely speculative (that’s part of what predicting is), but you’re relying on a lot of specific things to go specific ways

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

We are all have made different predictions, no one users prediction is gonna be better than the others, Biden has 232, Trump has 125, the election is unpredictable in a Covid Environment

There are various ways Trump can still get back in without the OVI, have Pence vote for him and overriding the election results on Jan 3rd and Election thrown back to House or SCOTUS throwing out ballots VBM without signatures in WI and PA

[hyouzel the predictor]

This whole thread is "what I think will happen based purely on '2016.' 'Silent Trump Voters' and TargetSmart data."

Oh, the crows you'll eat and the egg soon to be on your face.

[CivicParticipant]

This whole thread is "what I think will happen based purely on '2016.' 'Silent Trump Voters' and TargetSmart data."

Oh, the crows you'll eat and the egg soon to be on your face.

If I get it wrong that's fine. You can come to tell me about it afterwards. But at least I am providing my take.

[CivicParticipant]

Is it me or do people start thinking their takes are infallible once they major in a subject?

Far from it. It's more of an educated guess at best.

[IntelligenceWins]

I did this before in 2016 and got the FL county map 100% correct. I will begin posting them below. As we approach the final stretch, I wanted to share these with you. The states will be limited to the battlegrounds of PA, WI, MI, FL, NC, GA, NV, IA, OH, NH, ME, MN.

I don't think TX will be that close.

These projections are being finalized. Feel free to disagree and let me know if you see any errors so that I may correct them before Nov. 3rd.

Amazing!!! Congratulations on this. I love how accurate your predictions seem to be. Some people will be shocked on Nov 3rd....

[Ferguson97]

Is it me or do people start thinking their takes are infallible once they major in a subject?

Lol, seriously. I have a political science degree too, but I don't pretend that my predictions are gospel.

[Hammy]

Is it me or do people start thinking their takes are infallible once they major in a subject?

Far from it. It's more of an educated guess at best.

While I'll admit these are interesting to read (but I'm a statistics nut, even if I feel like the predictions are way off) I still feel you're fairly misguided with how high the third party vote is, based some of these percentages--unless your take is that these are each candidates' floor.

[ExSky]

This has got to be the funniest emotional coping rolepkay I’ve read on this forum, and that’s including Buzz

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

No one really knows how this election is gonna happen, but it will be resolved by Tues and how both parties have acted silly on the 1.8T stimulus package and could of been passed a long time ago and we can be talking about resolving Covid


Anyone can make a projection that's why we have our different maps

[S019ian Liberal]

emphasis purely my own.

I can see Trump losing Maricopa and still winning the state.

Not at all.

Yes he totally scan.

Although I expected it that Tucson will swing harder left than the county as a hole too.

[S019ian Liberal]

in a way, that realignment of minorities toward the further right-wing party will fundamentally reshape american politics to become more like the rest of the western democratic world.

it's interesting to see just how more dominant the GOP would be if they didn't always play the racial resentment, white animus, and identical political card. and somehow picked up for instance all the rural african americans who are even more conservative on policies, both socio-economic, or it's on guns and otherwise.

Red Johnson County, KS... LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOO

It voted for Trump in 2016 lol. Not the boldest take of all out there. Still ain't saying it will definitely (or even probably) happen, but still...keep an eye out for the unexpected.

[Coconut Decider]

in a way, that realignment of minorities toward the further right-wing party will fundamentally reshape american politics to become more like the rest of the western democratic world.

it's interesting to see just how more dominant the GOP would be if they didn't always play the racial resentment, white animus, and identical political card. and somehow picked up for instance all the rural african americans who are even more conservative on policies, both socio-economic, or it's on guns and otherwise.

Red Johnson County, KS... LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOO

It voted for Trump in 2016 lol. Not the boldest take of all out there. Still ain't saying it will definitely (or even probably) happen, but still...keep an eye out for the unexpected.

Trump would have to in the Popular vote by 2/3 for Johnson County to stay Red. Biden will probably win by 7-11 in Johnson County