My projections thread

[Sir Mohamed]

Thread should be renamed into "My desired result thread" instead of projections.

[LabourJersey]

How are all these projections assuming 3-5% of the vote will be third party votes?

Barely anyone is voting for a third party. In 2016 I saw Gary Johnson signs and buttons around. I have seen exactly 1 Jo Jorgenson sign and that's by a traffic light, not even in front of someone's house.

Also the turnout projections here are comically low.

[CivicParticipant]

Wisconsin



Donald Trump (R): 1,464,877 votes, 49.01% ✓
Joe Biden (D): 1,439,750 votes, 48.22%

President Trump is able to improve in the WoW suburbs (Washington 70-29%, Ozuakee 63-35%, and Waukesha 65-34%),  surrounding Milwaukee due to being strong on "law and order" which plays well here. Biden does better in upstate WI in the Iron Range and improves on Clinton's performance. Biden is also able to flip back some of the Madison suburbs to win Sauk (51-48%) and Columbia (49-47%) due to their disdain for Trump. President Trump is able to hold steady in Brown (55-43%) and in upstate WI enough to offset his losses in SE Wisconsin.

This seems quite a bit off and ignores that Trump was 2000 or so less votes than Romney--the only state he flipped where his raw vote share dropped. How is Trump going to gain almost 50k votes over 2016 while Biden somehow only gains a fraction of the 300k Obama votes that Hillary lost?

Trump barely does better in Milwaukee to get 30% and 24% in Dane. He also is able to do better in upstate WI.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Wisconsin



Donald Trump (R): 1,464,877 votes, 49.01% ✓
Joe Biden (D): 1,439,750 votes, 48.22%

President Trump is able to improve in the WoW suburbs (Washington 70-29%, Ozuakee 63-35%, and Waukesha 65-34%),  surrounding Milwaukee due to being strong on "law and order" which plays well here. Biden does better in upstate WI in the Iron Range and improves on Clinton's performance. Biden is also able to flip back some of the Madison suburbs to win Sauk (51-48%) and Columbia (49-47%) due to their disdain for Trump. President Trump is able to hold steady in Brown (55-43%) and in upstate WI enough to offset his losses in SE Wisconsin.

This seems quite a bit off and ignores that Trump was 2000 or so less votes than Romney--the only state he flipped where his raw vote share dropped. How is Trump going to gain almost 50k votes over 2016 while Biden somehow only gains a fraction of the 300k Obama votes that Hillary lost?

Trump barely does better in Milwaukee to get 30% and 24% in Dane. He also is able to do better in upstate WI.

I get upstate but why do you think he would improve in Madison and Milwaukee?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I don’t agree with a lot here, but I love the effort and the color format, Imma definitely keep checking back in

[CivicParticipant]

Wisconsin



Donald Trump (R): 1,464,877 votes, 49.01% ✓
Joe Biden (D): 1,439,750 votes, 48.22%

President Trump is able to improve in the WoW suburbs (Washington 70-29%, Ozuakee 63-35%, and Waukesha 65-34%),  surrounding Milwaukee due to being strong on "law and order" which plays well here. Biden does better in upstate WI in the Iron Range and improves on Clinton's performance. Biden is also able to flip back some of the Madison suburbs to win Sauk (51-48%) and Columbia (49-47%) due to their disdain for Trump. President Trump is able to hold steady in Brown (55-43%) and in upstate WI enough to offset his losses in SE Wisconsin.

This seems quite a bit off and ignores that Trump was 2000 or so less votes than Romney--the only state he flipped where his raw vote share dropped. How is Trump going to gain almost 50k votes over 2016 while Biden somehow only gains a fraction of the 300k Obama votes that Hillary lost?

Trump barely does better in Milwaukee to get 30% and 24% in Dane. He also is able to do better in upstate WI.

I get upstate but why do you think he would improve in Madison and Milwaukee?

Law and order but it'll only be a marginal improvement over 2016. It will be enough for him to get that extra basket of votes.

[CivicParticipant]

Nevada



Joe Biden (D): 550,086 votes, 50.27% ✓
Donald Trump (R): 512,159 votes, 46.80%

This map is pretty similar to 2016 with Biden improving in the rurals and Washoe. Biden does marginally better in Clark as does Trump (53-44%).

[CivicParticipant]

Maine



Joe Biden (D): 738,373 votes, 50.70% ✓
Donald Trump (R): 660,870 votes, 45.38%
Maine's CD1:

Joe Biden (D): 510,267 votes, 53.22% ✓
Donald Trump (R): 412,846 votes, 43.06%
Maine's CD2:

Donald Trump (R): 248,023 votes, 50.84% ✓
Joe Biden (D): 228,106 votes, 46.76%
Joe Biden is a much better fit for Maine and he is able to flip back a few counties from 2016. He also performs better in rural areas in the CD2.

[Rand]

Iowa

Gets nuked?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Iowa

Gets nuked?

There never was an Iowa. 

[CivicParticipant]

Iowa



Donald Trump (R): 792,419 votes, 50.85% ✓
Joe Biden (D): 716,520 votes, 45.98%

President Trump loses a bit of ground in Eastern Iowa due to Biden regaining some ground among disaffected Democrats.

[CivicParticipant]

Florida



Donald Trump (R): 4,848,727 votes, 49.01% ✓
Joe Biden (D): 4,684,486 votes, 47.35%

President Trump makes significant in roads with Cubans enough to narrow Miami-Dade (40-58%), Palm Beach (42-57%) to compensate for him losing ground in Central FL's I-4 corridor. President Trump narrowly wins retirees which is enough for Biden to flip back St. Lucie. Biden does better than Clinton in the rural areas and central FL while doing worse in South FL. President Trump is able to expand his margin in Monroe, FL to win 51-46%. Biden's biggest gains come in the Tampa area in Hillsborough to win 52-45% and Pinellas 50-49%. Most notably, Biden fails to flip Duval, which is a ripe county to flip due to it growing more suburban.

[CivicParticipant]

Michigan



Donald Trump (R): 2,443,873 votes, 48.28% ✓
Joe Biden (D): 2,399,628 votes, 47.41%

Biden is able to make marginal improvements in the rural areas of upstate MI and in the more educated counties of Washentaw (70-29%), Genesee (53-43%), and Oakland (52-44%). He also is able to flip Saginaw county narrowly to win (50-48%). I predict Trump to break 30% in Wayne county, home to Detroit. President Trump is holding his margins in upstate and slightly losing ground downstate. It was difficult to find a scenario where the President wins Michigan other than breaking 30% in Wayne county or competing where Biden is likely to make gains. The state's overall result will be dependent upon how close the margins are in those counties above. This is recount level close so it can go either way.

[CivicParticipant]

Ohio



Donald Trump (R): 2,908,707 votes, 50.19% ✓
Joe Biden (D): 2,672,374 votes, 46.12%

Biden makes gains in Cleveland and Cincinnati areas.

[Hammy]

Ohio's probably the most reasonable of these so far.

[S019ian Liberal]

Ignore the haters and trolls, this is a great thread and thoroughly enjoyed reading it. Keep up the lovely work!

[S019ian Liberal]

Arizona



Donald Trump (R): 1,287,158 votes, 49.22% ✓
Joe Biden (D): 1,194,767 votes, 45.69%

I would think turnout would be higher. Also, Trump pretty much trails in every reputable AZ poll. If Biden is gaining in the suburban counties like you said he is in PA, I'm thinking he probably flips Maricopa, home to the 5th largest US city.

Maricopa hasn't gone D since 1948. I took that into consideration. It's not out of the realm of possibility, just think that Rs have the advantage there.

No offense, but that’s really awful reasoning.
Streaks are meant to be broken, and Maricopa probably will flip, even if Trump wins AZ.
If you really want to argue Maricopa won’t flip, you could at least bring up potential Trump gains among Latinos voters.

There is no path for Trump to win the state w/o Maricopa.

Sinema.

Wisconsin



Donald Trump (R): 1,464,098 votes, 49.07% ✓
Joe Biden (D): 1,437,150 votes, 48.17%

President Trump is able to improve in the WoW suburbs (Washington 70-29%, Ozuakee 63-35%, and Waukesha 63-34%),  surrounding Milwaukee due to being strong on "law and order" which plays well here. Biden does better in upstate WI in the Iron Range and improves on Clinton's performance. Biden is also able to flip back some of the Madison suburbs to win Sauk (51-46%) and Columbia (49-47%) due to their disdain for Trump. President Trump is able to hold steady in Brown (55-43%) and in upstate WI enough to offset his losses in SE Wisconsin.

Ehhhh no. Sorry but I'd just have to politely disagree here

Wisconsin



Donald Trump (R): 1,464,877 votes, 49.01% ✓
Joe Biden (D): 1,439,750 votes, 48.22%

President Trump is able to improve in the WoW suburbs (Washington 70-29%, Ozuakee 63-35%, and Waukesha 65-34%),  surrounding Milwaukee due to being strong on "law and order" which plays well here. Biden does better in upstate WI in the Iron Range and improves on Clinton's performance. Biden is also able to flip back some of the Madison suburbs to win Sauk (51-48%) and Columbia (49-47%) due to their disdain for Trump. President Trump is able to hold steady in Brown (55-43%) and in upstate WI enough to offset his losses in SE Wisconsin.

This seems quite a bit off and ignores that Trump was 2000 or so less votes than Romney--the only state he flipped where his raw vote share dropped. How is Trump going to gain almost 50k votes over 2016 while Biden somehow only gains a fraction of the 300k Obama votes that Hillary lost?

Trump barely does better in Milwaukee to get 30% and 24% in Dane. He also is able to do better in upstate WI.

Milwaukee I can kind-of see from 2016, but naw not Madison. *Really* not Madison.

[S019ian Liberal]

How's this, for Texas?

https://yapms.org/maps/442w.png

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I know you said you won't consider it, but I would at least be interested in seeing a TX map from you, Spark

[CivicParticipant]

Texas



My prediction for Texas is unspectacular and too large of a state to do raw votes LOL

I expect President Trump to carry the state by at least 5-7 points.

Donald Trump (R) - 50%
Joe Biden (D) - 44%

[Paul Biya isn’t going far enough]

Before you laugh, keep in mind this guy got nearly every state correct in 2016 when most of y’all were talking big about Clinton.
He may be a deplorable, but his analysis was spot on.

[tjstarling]

Before you laugh, keep in mind this guy got nearly every state correct in 2016 when most of y’all were talking big about Clinton.
He may be a deplorable, but his analysis was spot on.

Um, according to his final 2016 prediction map, he missed five states giving Hillary PA, WI, MI and Trump NH and, bizarrely, CO. I mean it could have been worse but that’s hardly a fantastic performance.

[CivicParticipant]

Before you laugh, keep in mind this guy got nearly every state correct in 2016 when most of y’all were talking big about Clinton.
He may be a deplorable, but his analysis was spot on.

Um, according to his final 2016 prediction map, he missed five states giving Hillary PA, WI, MI and Trump NH and, bizarrely, CO. I mean it could have been worse but that’s hardly a fantastic performance.

That was also before I had a poli sci degree. Granted, I did get it right in one of my maps.

[CivicParticipant]

Final Projections

Below are my final projections for the 2020 U.S. presidential election. (Think before you comment as some of my calls will be controversial and have you wondering).


Nevada



Joe Biden (D): 518,418 votes, 47.37% ✓
Donald Trump (R): 496,791 votes, 45.40%


Arizona



Donald Trump (R): 1,267,989 votes, 48.49% ✓
Joe Biden (D): 1,207,434 votes, 46.17%

I can see Trump losing Maricopa and still winning the state.


Texas



Donald Trump (R): 50% ✓
Joe Biden (D): 45%


Minnesota



Joe Biden (D): 49%✓
Donald Trump (R): 46.5%


Wisconsin



Donald Trump (R): 1,473,803 votes, 49.40% ✓
Joe Biden (D): 1,424,033 votes, 47.73%


Michigan



Donald Trump (R): 2,443,280 votes, 48.27% ✓
Joe Biden (D): 2,384,898 votes, 47.12%


Pennsylvania



Joe Biden (D): 3,188,711 votes, 49.31% ✓
Donald Trump (R): 3,083,792 votes, 47.69%


Ohio



Donald Trump (R): 2,927,275 votes, 50.53% ✓
Joe Biden (D): 2,653,850 votes, 45.80%


Iowa



Donald Trump (R): 792,419 votes, 50.85% ✓
Joe Biden (D): 716,520 votes, 45.98%


Maine



Joe Biden (D): 738,373 votes, 50.70% ✓
Donald Trump (R): 660,870 votes, 45.38%
Maine's CD1:

Joe Biden (D): 510,267 votes, 53.22% ✓
Donald Trump (R): 412,846 votes, 43.06%
Maine's CD2:

Donald Trump (R): 248,023 votes, 50.84% ✓
Joe Biden (D): 228,106 votes, 46.76%
Joe Biden is a much better fit for Maine and he is able to flip back a few counties from 2016. He also performs better in rural areas in the CD2.


New Hampshire



Joe Biden (D): 374,249 votes, 50.19% ✓
Donald Trump (R): 342,128 votes, 45.88%


Florida



Donald Trump (R): 4,848,727 votes, 49.01% ✓
Joe Biden (D): 4,484,486, 47.35%

[NYSforKennedy2024]

I think you're looking at 2016 data and ignoring clear indications from early voting.