My projections thread

[CivicParticipant]

I did this before in 2016 and got the FL county map 100% correct. I will begin posting them below. As we approach the final stretch, I wanted to share these with you. The states will be limited to the battlegrounds of PA, WI, MI, FL, NC, GA, NV, IA, OH, NH, ME, MN.

I don't think TX will be that close.

These projections are being finalized. Feel free to disagree and let me know if you see any errors so that I may correct them before Nov. 3rd.

[CivicParticipant]

Pennsylvania



Joe Biden (D): 3,146,664 votes, 49% ✓
Donald Trump (R): 3,117,206 votes, 48%

Wanted to start off with my home state of PA. President Trump nearly maxes out rural PA but Biden does better than Clinton in those areas. Biden also is able to improve enough in the collar counties (Delco 63-35, Montco 60-38, Chester 55-41). Suburbia trends leftward and Trump won't be able to overcome these margins. Joe Biden, with his working class & native son appeal from Scranton, is able to make in roads in Lackawanna county, PA to win it by 8 points (53-45). Biden is also able to flip back Erie, PA due to bringing back disaffected Dems (don't quote me on this one).

The only way I can see Trump winning PA again is maxing out rural PA + Erie + Bucks + holding Biden to under 60% in the collar counties. He will need to pull all of those off in order to win with at least 49%. It's possible but unlikely.

[CivicParticipant]

Arizona



Donald Trump (R): 1,298,086 votes, 49.64% ✓
Joe Biden (D): 1,232,245 votes, 47.12%

While President Trump isn't the best fit for Maricopa county, I have him prevailing there 49-46%. So goes the state. Interestingly enough, I have Biden doing worse than Clinton in Santa Cruz County (69-24) and slightly better in Pima (54-40%).

[MT Treasurer]

Arizona

Donald Trump (R): 1,287,158 votes, 49.22%
Joe Biden (D): 1,194,767 votes, 45.69%

Imagine unironically believing that Joe Biden will do worse than Hillary Clinton in AZ.

[CivicParticipant]

Imagine unironically believing that Joe Biden will do worse than Hillary Clinton in AZ.

He won't in terms of %. These are approximations of course.

[Paul Biya isn’t going far enough]

Arizona

Donald Trump (R): 1,287,158 votes, 49.22%
Joe Biden (D): 1,194,767 votes, 45.69%

Imagine unironically believing that Joe Biden will do worse than Hillary Clinton in AZ.

Imagine believing that 2020 will be a Democratic wave.

[KaiserDave]

Okay so this is a joke, good to know

[KaiserDave]

Arizona

Donald Trump (R): 1,287,158 votes, 49.22%
Joe Biden (D): 1,194,767 votes, 45.69%

Imagine unironically believing that Joe Biden will do worse than Hillary Clinton in AZ.

Imagine believing that 2020 will be a Democratic wave.

Imagine arguing with IndyRep on prognostication (except on NH-SEN 2022, Sununununu is not an unbeatable titan, or so we will see)

[CivicParticipant]

Okay so this is a joke, good to know

It gets worse don't worry lol.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Arizona



Donald Trump (R): 1,287,158 votes, 49.22% ✓
Joe Biden (D): 1,194,767 votes, 45.69%

I would think turnout would be higher. Also, Trump pretty much trails in every reputable AZ poll. If Biden is gaining in the suburban counties like you said he is in PA, I'm thinking he probably flips Maricopa, home to the 5th largest US city.

[CivicParticipant]

Arizona



Donald Trump (R): 1,287,158 votes, 49.22% ✓
Joe Biden (D): 1,194,767 votes, 45.69%

I would think turnout would be higher. Also, Trump pretty much trails in every reputable AZ poll. If Biden is gaining in the suburban counties like you said he is in PA, I'm thinking he probably flips Maricopa, home to the 5th largest US city.

Maricopa hasn't gone D since 1948. I took that into consideration. It's not out of the realm of possibility, just think that Rs have the advantage there.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Arizona



Donald Trump (R): 1,287,158 votes, 49.22% ✓
Joe Biden (D): 1,194,767 votes, 45.69%

I would think turnout would be higher. Also, Trump pretty much trails in every reputable AZ poll. If Biden is gaining in the suburban counties like you said he is in PA, I'm thinking he probably flips Maricopa, home to the 5th largest US city.

Maricopa hasn't gone D since 1948. I took that into consideration. It's not out of the realm of possibility, just think that Rs have the advantage there.

If anything not going D since 1948 would prove Ds chances are pretty good as it suggests the county is trending towards them opposed to away from them. I just find it hard to see the counties leftward shift stalling if the national environment is anything close to what current polling indicates. Even if the NPV is about the same as 2016, I'm guessing it still has a 2-3 leftward shift by default due to the city becoming more diverse, and more liberal

[CookieDamage]

Cope

[Paul Biya isn’t going far enough]

Arizona



Donald Trump (R): 1,287,158 votes, 49.22% ✓
Joe Biden (D): 1,194,767 votes, 45.69%

I would think turnout would be higher. Also, Trump pretty much trails in every reputable AZ poll. If Biden is gaining in the suburban counties like you said he is in PA, I'm thinking he probably flips Maricopa, home to the 5th largest US city.

Maricopa hasn't gone D since 1948. I took that into consideration. It's not out of the realm of possibility, just think that Rs have the advantage there.

No offense, but that’s really awful reasoning.
Streaks are meant to be broken, and Maricopa probably will flip, even if Trump wins AZ.
If you really want to argue Maricopa won’t flip, you could at least bring up potential Trump gains among Latinos voters.

[Hammy]

Arizona



Donald Trump (R): 1,287,158 votes, 49.22% ✓
Joe Biden (D): 1,194,767 votes, 45.69%

I would think turnout would be higher. Also, Trump pretty much trails in every reputable AZ poll. If Biden is gaining in the suburban counties like you said he is in PA, I'm thinking he probably flips Maricopa, home to the 5th largest US city.

Maricopa hasn't gone D since 1948. I took that into consideration. It's not out of the realm of possibility, just think that Rs have the advantage there.

You need to take the 2018 Senate race into account as well, where it did vote D and helped determine the outcome.

[CivicParticipant]

Arizona



Donald Trump (R): 1,287,158 votes, 49.22% ✓
Joe Biden (D): 1,194,767 votes, 45.69%

I would think turnout would be higher. Also, Trump pretty much trails in every reputable AZ poll. If Biden is gaining in the suburban counties like you said he is in PA, I'm thinking he probably flips Maricopa, home to the 5th largest US city.

Maricopa hasn't gone D since 1948. I took that into consideration. It's not out of the realm of possibility, just think that Rs have the advantage there.

No offense, but that’s really awful reasoning.
Streaks are meant to be broken, and Maricopa probably will flip, even if Trump wins AZ.
If you really want to argue Maricopa won’t flip, you could at least bring up potential Trump gains among Latinos voters.

There is no path for Trump to win the state w/o Maricopa.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Arizona



Donald Trump (R): 1,287,158 votes, 49.22% ✓
Joe Biden (D): 1,194,767 votes, 45.69%

I would think turnout would be higher. Also, Trump pretty much trails in every reputable AZ poll. If Biden is gaining in the suburban counties like you said he is in PA, I'm thinking he probably flips Maricopa, home to the 5th largest US city.

Maricopa hasn't gone D since 1948. I took that into consideration. It's not out of the realm of possibility, just think that Rs have the advantage there.

No offense, but that’s really awful reasoning.
Streaks are meant to be broken, and Maricopa probably will flip, even if Trump wins AZ.
If you really want to argue Maricopa won’t flip, you could at least bring up potential Trump gains among Latinos voters.

There is no path for Trump to win the state w/o Maricopa.

But he isn't bound to win the state. Maricopa prolly flips with AZ, though there is a really small window for a split to work both ways.

[CivicParticipant]

Wisconsin



Donald Trump (R): 1,468,850 votes, 49.23% ✓
Joe Biden (D): 1,427,987 votes, 47.86%

President Trump is able to improve in the WoW suburbs (Washington 70-29%, Ozuakee 63-35%, and Waukesha 65-33%),  surrounding Milwaukee due to being strong on "law and order" which plays well here. Biden does better in upstate WI in the Iron Range and improves on Clinton's performance. Biden is also able to flip back some of the Madison suburbs to win Sauk (51-46%) and Columbia (49-47%) due to their disdain for Trump. President Trump is able to hold steady in Brown (55-43%) and in upstate WI enough to offset his losses in SE Wisconsin.

[CivicParticipant]

New Hampshire



Joe Biden (D) - 376,092 votes, 50.43% ✓
Donald Trump (R) - 350,946 votes, 47.06%

Biden is able to hold on in NH due to the affluent suburbs and small towns around Concord. He is a better cultural fit for the small towns. Biden improves over Clinton in Merrimack (50-46%), Hillsborough (49-47%), Rockingham (45-50%), Sullivan (52-47%), Stafford (52-41%). He does worse than Clinton in Belknap (39-58%).

[President Johnson]

Lmao, the Arizona prediction is weird, to put it mildly, isn't it? Also, way too many third party voters. This isn't 2016 anymore. The OP is stuck in 2016.

[Rand]

This isn't 2016 anymore. The OP is stuck in 2016.

Fake news. It never stopped being 2016.

[Hammy]

Wisconsin



Donald Trump (R): 1,464,877 votes, 49.01% ✓
Joe Biden (D): 1,439,750 votes, 48.22%

President Trump is able to improve in the WoW suburbs (Washington 70-29%, Ozuakee 63-35%, and Waukesha 65-34%),  surrounding Milwaukee due to being strong on "law and order" which plays well here. Biden does better in upstate WI in the Iron Range and improves on Clinton's performance. Biden is also able to flip back some of the Madison suburbs to win Sauk (51-48%) and Columbia (49-47%) due to their disdain for Trump. President Trump is able to hold steady in Brown (55-43%) and in upstate WI enough to offset his losses in SE Wisconsin.

This seems quite a bit off and ignores that Trump was 2000 or so less votes than Romney--the only state he flipped where his raw vote share dropped. How is Trump going to gain almost 50k votes over 2016 while Biden somehow only gains a fraction of the 300k Obama votes that Hillary lost?

[n1240]

Your turnout expectations are definitely too low.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Kelly got caught in a scandal with his supporter, that's why AZ is closing up

[here2view]

Looking forward to bumping this next month.