MI - Trafalgar: Trump+1

[MT Treasurer]

Trump’s almost certainly not going to win MI, but that’s not because its R trend in the 2010s was a fluke or because it’ll vote way to the left of WI/PA, it’s because Biden is leading by high single digits/low double digits nationally. It’s completely reasonable to expect it to trend R again, and the narrower Biden's margin, the better for James.

So yeah, while this is an outlier, Mi is pretty much the last state Democrats should be taking for granted (especially with the likely tipping-point Senate race there).

[Buzz]

Good.

Someone should tell the Trump campaign. They have already given up on Michigan

Then why is Trump going there tomorrow?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Good.

Someone should tell the Trump campaign. They have already given up on Michigan

Then why is Trump going there tomorrow?

It'd be foolish for Trump to completely 100% give up on Michigan, but the fact that his spending has been far out-done by Biden in the state indicates one of two things.  Either (1) his campaign has *largely* given up on Michigan or (2) his campaign is confident that they can win there without further spending. 

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Good.

Someone should tell the Trump campaign. They have already given up on Michigan

Then why is Trump going there tomorrow?

It'd be foolish for Trump to completely 100% give up on Michigan, but the fact that his spending has been far out-done by Biden in the state indicates one of two things.  Either (1) his campaign has *largely* given up on Michigan or (2) his campaign is confident that they can win there without further spending. 

Shades of 1980 in the former possibility, shades of 2016 in the latter--but not Trump 2016.

[Badger]

Trafalgar has been consistent in their polling of Michigan.

Consistently bad is still consistent, I guess.

[Badger]

To the average it goes.  Clear outlier, but the same thing was said 4 years ago. 

Buzz having to desperately cling on to trafalgar polling this past week has been nothing short of hilarious

In what way, shape, or form do I appear desperate?  I have said Trump will lose since July.  If being reasonable is the new “desperate” then so be it.  I called it an outlier, but not adding the only polling company to predict the state correctly in 2016 to the average would be stupid. 

you went from comparing Quinnipiac to Trafalgar saying it was trash to all of a sudden being reaaaaaaaaally sympathetic to Trafalgar.

you reek of desperation.

Nah fam.  Trafalgar doesn’t deserve that comparison.  I have pivoted to comparing Quinnipiac to Rasmussen.  Any company that shows a double digit lead for a candidate in Florida should be banned on spot.  Straight up clownery.

Naw fam. You got nailed.

[KaiserDave]

Here come six pages on a partisan poll that is obvious junk

[AGA]

Did they factor for "shy Trump vote" in by inflating Trump's number in 2016 too?

[It’s so Joever]

Michigan always was closer than the other two. The Covid spike in WI just solidified it.

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Michigan President by Trafalgar Group on 2020-10-14

Summary: D: 46%, R: 47%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[ProudModerate2]

Trash-falgar (again).

[Arkansas Yankee]

Hot Air has an article that discusses Trafalgar and its lead pollster,Robert Cahaly.  There is a link to a podcast of an interview of Cahaly by Mike Pesca of Slate.  The interview starts at 10:30

https://hotair.com/archives/allahpundit/2020/10/15/trafalgar-pollster-predict-trump-win-mid-270s/

https://dcs.megaphone.fm/SLT4823442188.mp3?key=f80ad0491c349c66264324a1008bcda5&source=3

Cahaly predicts Trump will win with electoral votes in the mid 270s.

He also maintains Trump is getting about 15% of the Black vote.

[Horus]

Hot Air has an article that discusses Trafalgar and its lead pollster,Robert Cahaly.  There is a link to a podcast of an interview of Cahaly by Mike Pesca of Slate.  The interview starts at 10:30

https://hotair.com/archives/allahpundit/2020/10/15/trafalgar-pollster-predict-trump-win-mid-270s/

https://dcs.megaphone.fm/SLT4823442188.mp3?key=f80ad0491c349c66264324a1008bcda5&source=3

Cahaly predicts Trump will win with electoral votes in the mid 270s.

He also maintains Trump is getting about 15% of the Black vote.

I've been saying this for months. Even the A+ rated Marist national poll shows 17% of black voters going Trump. Why are the Democrats not trying to get the black vote this year?

Biden never talks about the Lift Every Voice plan but Trump is talking about the platinum plan all the time

[Asta]

Hot Air has an article that discusses Trafalgar and its lead pollster,Robert Cahaly.  There is a link to a podcast of an interview of Cahaly by Mike Pesca of Slate.  The interview starts at 10:30

https://hotair.com/archives/allahpundit/2020/10/15/trafalgar-pollster-predict-trump-win-mid-270s/

https://dcs.megaphone.fm/SLT4823442188.mp3?key=f80ad0491c349c66264324a1008bcda5&source=3

Cahaly predicts Trump will win with electoral votes in the mid 270s.

He also maintains Trump is getting about 15% of the Black vote.

I've been saying this for months. Even the A+ rated Marist national poll shows 17% of black voters going Trump. Why are the Democrats not trying to get the black vote this year?

Biden never talks about the Lift Every Voice plan but Trump is talking about the platinum plan all the time

I think 11-13% is more likely than 15-17% but either way, I'm not too disappointed.

Democrats were never going to keep black votes forever. Younger people being skeptical of both parties hurts Democrats with black voters and Republicans with white voters. I'd rather see Democrats gain back reasonable base support from whites and let Republicans peel off black voters.

[Hammy]

I normally give their polls the benefit of the doubt. Michigan was, after all, one of the states they nailed in 2016 despite every other poll pointing to a big Clinton win.

But first off their numbers are far too low to take seriously, and they did over-poll Trump by two points while getting it right with Hillary's, which would mean the 2016 error would require 9% going third party (their undecided/other by comparison in 2016 was 4% and third parties are not likely getting as much as they did in 2016)

Either way Michigan is still too close for comfort and Dems need to take the state seriously.

[Real Texan Politics]

Could more than likely be his ceiling in Michigan.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In a close election PVI by Cook is MI plus 4, the last poll that came out debunks Trafalgar polls

[Hammy]

Why people even keep discussing about this trash

Here come six pages on a partisan poll that is obvious junk

The less of these posts we get, the less pages will occur.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs still want to believe that Trump still has a chance and he doesn't. Just like Trump Toupee still thinks PA and AZ are gonna vote to the right of the nation and Wolf won by 17 points