The future of Roe v. Wade and abortion laws
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  The future of Roe v. Wade and abortion laws
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Author Topic: The future of Roe v. Wade and abortion laws  (Read 373 times)
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Just Passion Through
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« on: October 16, 2020, 12:10:54 PM »

Let's have a real discussion about this. No poll, because I want to see some nuanced opinions.

Obviously a 6-3 conservative court should be expected to be more lenient on abortion restrictions, regardless of Roe or Casey. The way I see it, these are the following possibilities:

1. The Court repeals Roe and Casey entirely.
2. The Court retains Roe and Casey but allows states to pass more restrictions (20 week bans, Louisiana/Texas-style clinic regulations, heartbeat laws, etc.)
3. The Court, in a surprise move, continues to rule the way it has on abortion laws and more or less retains the status quo.
4. The Court is packed under a Biden presidency.

Even if the Court reverses these precedents, abortions will still be allowed in blue states but red states (which have passed hundreds of abortion restrictions over the last ten years) will make getting an abortion impossible if not near impossible. Mississippi has one abortion clinic remaining. That might not be true in the coming years, although the Court won't be ruling on any abortion-related cases until 2022 at the earliest because no such cases are on their calendar. In any case, a reversal of these cases wouldn't necessarily change the legal framework of abortion for most states, but Alabama and Georgia-style laws would be restricted to only a handful of deep red states where legal abortion is not popular.

What do our Atlas legal experts predict?
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #1 on: October 16, 2020, 03:17:32 PM »

The Court is packed under a Biden presidency before a new landmark abortion case can be heard, & a 7-justice liberal majority on the newly 13-justice Court would obviously ensure that Roe/Casey & the right to abortion remain secure, with state laws which limit access to abortion being unlikely to survive review.
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
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« Reply #2 on: October 16, 2020, 04:00:09 PM »

The Court is packed under a Biden presidency before a new landmark abortion case can be heard, & a 7-justice liberal majority on the newly 13-justice Court would obviously ensure that Roe/Casey & the right to abortion remain secure, with state laws which limit access to abortion being unlikely to survive review.

I wish I shared your optimism. Democrats need a working Senate majority, and those Democrats need to nuke the filibuster and support court-packing. None of those things are guaranteed.
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
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« Reply #3 on: October 16, 2020, 09:46:18 PM »

Reposting what I wrote on AAD, for fellow lefties who are expecting the worst:

You know how presidents say they're going to do something to change American foreign policy, and then they enter office and either rebuke themselves or double down on America's military involvement overseas?

I am hoping that the same is true of courts. The vast majority of SCOTUS cases are unanimous or near-unanimous, but it's the hot button issues (abortion, healthcare, guns, etc.) where each justice exposes the red or blue jersey beneath their robes. But even with this in mind, conservative judges know the huge impact that overturning Roe and Casey would have on the image of the court as well as the party that nominated them. Hell, it was the threat of courtpacking that caused the Supreme Court to start ruling more favorably on FDR's programs. Whether or not SCOTUS wants to trigger a complete backlash by overturning Roe/Casey, or repealing Obamacare, will probably be up to Kavanaugh and Gorsuch. Roberts wants neither. Judges can read polls, too, and the fact that they're insulated on paper from the consequences of their decisions doesn't mean they don't care about the Court's standing as an institution.

(Also worth noting that there are no abortion-related cases coming up this session, so Biden - if Democrats win the Senate and don't cuck out - have the chance to preserve Roe/Casey by expanding the court next year.)

This is me trying to be optimistic amid a wave of pessimism, and I'm scared to death how things might play out too, but a big Democratic wave this year should give three of the six conservatives some pause in how they rule on these cases.
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Beet
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« Reply #4 on: October 17, 2020, 03:36:44 AM »

Trump Presidency: Roe v. Wade is neutered to some extent. It is either overturned or heavily restricted. Abortion is now determined by politicians, so every politician is forced to take a stand on every abortion restriction whenever they run for office. It also becomes a wedge issue in gubernatorial elections whereas it wasn't previously. The issue becomes a lot more ubiquitous than it is now, and the culture wars get worse. Ultimately, some states ban abortion while others allow it, and it is primarily lower income women who cannot get abortions, while middle and upper class women can still travel to get it. The result is an increase in the birthrate for poor women.

Biden Presidency: If the Democrats win the Senate, some version of national abortion legislation is passed by Congress, legislatively enshrining Roe v. Wade. Abortion still becomes a more ubiquitous issue as all congressional candidates are forced to take a stance on it, but ultimately it remains accessible on a national basis. However the next time Republicans take control of the trifecta, they ban it after 16 weeks.
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