AK-NYT/Siena: Sullivan +8 | Young +8

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

October 9-14
423 likely voters
MoE: 5.7%

Young 49%
Galvin 41%
Someone else 1%
Not voting in the race 1%
Don't know/refused 9%

Sullivan 45%
Gross 37%
Howe (AIP) 10%
Not voting for Senate 1%
Someone else 0% (but some voters)
Don't know/Refused 7%

Gross seemed cool but has been a little bit overrated as a candidate. He's managed to flip-flop on healthcare despite only running one campaign.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Anyway, we can now cross off Young as a candidate who could win without leading in poll.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

AIP at 10?

This is odd for reasons alluded to earlier in this thread, the AIP primary being pretty small this year and the party tending to do much worse than this in statewide elections. It also doesn't square with Sullivan +8% given that they take disproportionately from Republicans (I try to not to put too much stock in crosstabs, but Howe is taking 10% of Democrats and 4% of Republicans here).

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

To put this in perspective - I've just checked - this would be the best federal performance ever for the AIP since their founding in 1984, followed by Michael States' 6% showing in the 1992 House race. They got 39% in the 1990 gubernatorial election and 20% in the '94 gubernatorial election, but seem to have completely crumbled since.