AK-NYT/Siena: Sullivan +8 | Young +8 (user search)
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  AK-NYT/Siena: Sullivan +8 | Young +8 (search mode)
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Author Topic: AK-NYT/Siena: Sullivan +8 | Young +8  (Read 1311 times)
Pollster
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« on: October 16, 2020, 12:24:04 PM »

I know it's become a running joke on this board to criticize the NYT/Siena polls for not pushing undecideds, but the joke is really masking over the fact that it does make the poll quite useless, and in all likelihood, wrong. And because of the pulpit of the NYTimes, these bad polls are getting a lot of exposure and factoring into narratives.

Nate Cohn is a polling reporter, not a pollster, for good reason.
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Pollster
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Posts: 3,758


« Reply #1 on: October 16, 2020, 12:39:17 PM »

I know it's become a running joke on this board to criticize the NYT/Siena polls for not pushing undecideds, but the joke is really masking over the fact that it does make the poll quite useless, and in all likelihood, wrong. And because of the pulpit of the NYTimes, these bad polls are getting a lot of exposure and factoring into narratives.

Nate Cohn is a polling reporter, not a pollster, for good reason.

8% are undecided in this poll. I don't get why people are acting like it's 20% lol.

Most of those undecideds lean a certain way, which would be clearer if they were properly pushed. It would be more understandable in a race where the candidates were unknown, but Gross and Sullivan both have 80-90% name rec in this poll, and Biden and Trump are both at 95+%. It would be more understandable in a quiet race at the beginning of the year, but this is an expensive contest less than three weeks away from the end of the election.

8% implies nearly 1 in 10 in voters is undecided. In reality, it's probably closer to 1 in 30ish.
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