AK-NYT/Siena: Sullivan +8 | Young +8

[new_patomic]

AIP at 10?

[new_patomic]

I know NYT/Sienna polls are good in all and should be taken seriously but it seems like everyone is in a "lets have their one poll define the state of the race" mood which is odd.

[new_patomic]

Howe's Facebook page has 7 likes lmao

I can't even find a FEC report for him.

[new_patomic]

It's not just 8 percent being undecided, it's another 10 percent supporting an AIP candidate no one has heard of and who apparently doesn't have any money.

Which, who knows, could be the case. Alaska does have some history of splitting their vote in fun/weird ways. But in a race with a well-known Democrat and Republican who both have a lot of money and high name recognition? We'll see.

[new_patomic]

To put this in perspective - I've just checked - this would be the best federal performance ever for the AIP since their founding in 1984, followed by Michael States' 6% showing in the 1992 House race. They got 39% in the 1990 gubernatorial election and 20% in the '94 gubernatorial election, but seem to have completely crumbled since.

If you expanded that and looked at independents in general, one did get over 10 percent in 2016. Though that was the Murkowski race against Miller who was running as a Libertarian with the Democrats running a non-entity who came in fourth. So not a good 1 = 1 comparison.

The Green Party also seemed to get some better results in 1992/1998/2002 but those were all non-competitive races.

In competitive races where both the Democrats and Republicans are running serious candidates, the trend seems to be they get somewhere around ~90 percent or more combined. So this would be... odd.