NYT/Siena - AK: Trump +6
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  NYT/Siena - AK: Trump +6
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Author Topic: NYT/Siena - AK: Trump +6  (Read 2987 times)
KaiserDave
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« Reply #25 on: October 16, 2020, 12:26:13 PM »


Please stop the doomer schtick when it doesn't even make any sense
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compucomp
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« Reply #26 on: October 16, 2020, 12:26:40 PM »

HST, this is a quirky state.  And a fourteen-point swing from Trump +5 to Biden +9 in Anchorage is pretty flooring.  

Like Nate said, Anchorage is trending as if they're a colder, darker sunbelt city Tongue

Not necessarily darker, down here we don't get the experience of 20 hour days and midnight baseball in June Tongue
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #27 on: October 16, 2020, 12:28:15 PM »

Would be the closest presidential race in Alaska since 1968 if this were the final outcome.
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Pollster
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« Reply #28 on: October 16, 2020, 12:29:11 PM »

Anchorage is +9 for Biden proving the urban/suburban vs rural divide is even going to Alaska.

For reference:  

2008:  McCain won Anchorage by 16 pts.  (57-41)
2012:  Romney won Anchorage by 10 pts. (53-43)
2016:  Trump won Anchorage by 5 pts. (47-42*)

The deceit of margins. Democrats haven't broken 43%. Would make it even more impressive if Biden does manage to win the city by 9 points.
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redjohn
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« Reply #29 on: October 16, 2020, 12:31:43 PM »

Both Trump and Biden will outperform the 2016 performances. Jorgensen probably won't end up with 8%; Johnson only got 5.88% in a year with moderately high third-party voting.

I could see a final result like this:

Trump 53%
Biden 42%
Jorgensen 5%
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VAR
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« Reply #30 on: October 16, 2020, 12:32:18 PM »

Both Trump and Biden will outperform the 2016 performances. Jorgensen probably won't end up with 8%; Johnson only got 5.88% in a year with moderately high third-party voting.

I could see a final result like this:

Trump 53%
Biden 42%
Jorgensen 5%

I think it’ll be closer. Trump +5 if I had to guess.
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redjohn
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« Reply #31 on: October 16, 2020, 12:34:11 PM »

Both Trump and Biden will outperform the 2016 performances. Jorgensen probably won't end up with 8%; Johnson only got 5.88% in a year with moderately high third-party voting.

I could see a final result like this:

Trump 53%
Biden 42%
Jorgensen 5%

I think it’ll be closer. Trump +5 if I had to guess.

Possibly, but only possible with a very low third party vote. Trump will get 50%+ here.
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YE
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« Reply #32 on: October 16, 2020, 12:37:44 PM »

Not sure why people are thinking Trump will win the state by 10 in the end. The state has been steadily trending D for a while and there’s certainly room to grow in Anchorage.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #33 on: October 16, 2020, 12:38:06 PM »

Jorgensen at 8%? Somehow I doubt she'll do better than Johnson did in 2016.

Who else is on the ballot here? Hawkins, West, whoever the Constitution Party candidate is?

Trump
Biden
Jorgensen
Jesse Ventura (AK Greens went rogue and refused to back Hawkins)
Blankenship
Rocky de la Fuente
Brock Pierce

7 names, more than most states! No Kanye, though.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #34 on: October 16, 2020, 12:39:17 PM »

Jorgensen at 8%? Somehow I doubt she'll do better than Johnson did in 2016.

Who else is on the ballot here? Hawkins, West, whoever the Constitution Party candidate is?

Trump
Biden
Jorgensen
Jesse Ventura (AK Greens went rogue and refused to back Hawkins)
Blankenship
Rocky de la Fuente
Brock Pierce

7 names, more than most states! No Kanye, though.

You forgot Grizzly C. Bear and Chester D. Salmon. 
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #35 on: October 16, 2020, 12:48:14 PM »

Jorgensen at 8%? Somehow I doubt she'll do better than Johnson did in 2016.

Who else is on the ballot here? Hawkins, West, whoever the Constitution Party candidate is?

Trump
Biden
Jorgensen
Jesse Ventura (AK Greens went rogue and refused to back Hawkins)
Blankenship
Rocky de la Fuente
Brock Pierce

7 names, more than most states! No Kanye, though.

Oh wow, Ventura is seriously the Green Party candidate here? I could see that hurting Jorgensen some.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #36 on: October 16, 2020, 12:51:39 PM »

New Poll: Alaska President by Siena Research Institute on 2020-10-14

Summary: D: 39%, R: 45%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #37 on: October 16, 2020, 01:21:47 PM »

Jorgensen at 8%? Somehow I doubt she'll do better than Johnson did in 2016.

Who else is on the ballot here? Hawkins, West, whoever the Constitution Party candidate is?

Trump
Biden
Jorgensen
Jesse Ventura (AK Greens went rogue and refused to back Hawkins)
Blankenship
Rocky de la Fuente
Brock Pierce

7 names, more than most states! No Kanye, though.

You forgot Grizzly C. Bear and Chester D. Salmon. 

Not Salmon P. Chase VI?
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #38 on: October 16, 2020, 03:25:44 PM »

Anchorage is +9 for Biden proving the urban/suburban vs rural divide is even going to Alaska.

For reference:  

2008:  McCain won Anchorage by 16 pts.  (57-41)
2012:  Romney won Anchorage by 10 pts. (53-43)
2016:  Trump won Anchorage by 5 pts. (47-42*)

I have Anchorage more at (40-49 R) in 2016 with about 102k total ballots once you factor in absentee ballots not assigned to precincts and take the State Districts which overlap the City and add them to the total.

So Anchorage represented roughly 1/3rd of the total statewide vote in 2016 with Trump netting +10k margins off of the City, out of his 60k state vote lead.

If we take these poll numbers with a 47-39 Biden from Anchorage, it looks like Biden would end up with a net ~10k out of Anchorage, effectively shrinking the 60k Trump margins to a 40k lead, if everything else stayed the same.

Also it is noteworthy that this poll has Biden effectively tied here among Seniors, and 3rd Party voters are disproportionately younger voters. I suspect that at the end of the day, many will end up voting Biden rather than 3rd Party.
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redjohn
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« Reply #39 on: October 16, 2020, 04:26:38 PM »

Unfortunately, the main reason Trump will win AK is that approval rating. 47/47, and you can guarantee most of the Jorgensen votes come from that 47% disapproval number. Thankfully we don't have that many states with such a high preference for third-party candidates; the uncertainty from their high polling numbers in 2016 was ridiculous. We only see that in a few states now, most which aren't battlegrounds.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #40 on: October 16, 2020, 04:28:30 PM »

The more I look at the cross tabs of this poll, the better it looks for Biden. LeanvR.
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redjohn
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« Reply #41 on: October 16, 2020, 04:33:29 PM »

The more I look at the cross tabs of this poll, the better it looks for Biden. LeanvR.

What part looks good for him? The very high # of undecideds+third-party support among younger voters is not good for Biden. He's doing well with women, but I don't think it'll be enough to make the state competitive on election day.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #42 on: October 16, 2020, 04:59:02 PM »

The more I look at the cross tabs of this poll, the better it looks for Biden. LeanvR.

What part looks good for him? The very high # of undecideds+third-party support among younger voters is not good for Biden. He's doing well with women, but I don't think it'll be enough to make the state competitive on election day.

Anchorage’s trend as well as the fact that they seemed to have issues reaching out to indigenous D-leaning voters in western AK.
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #43 on: October 16, 2020, 05:11:12 PM »

The more I look at the cross tabs of this poll, the better it looks for Biden. LeanvR.

What part looks good for him? The very high # of undecideds+third-party support among younger voters is not good for Biden. He's doing well with women, but I don't think it'll be enough to make the state competitive on election day.

Anchorage’s trend as well as the fact that they seemed to have issues reaching out to indigenous D-leaning voters in western AK.
That’s true.
Although I do have this strange feeling Native Americans will swing to Trump. Probably wouldn’t change the race unless it’s somehow extremely close in AK, which would mean Trump is DOA anyways.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #44 on: October 16, 2020, 05:13:13 PM »

The more I look at the cross tabs of this poll, the better it looks for Biden. LeanvR.

What part looks good for him? The very high # of undecideds+third-party support among younger voters is not good for Biden. He's doing well with women, but I don't think it'll be enough to make the state competitive on election day.

Anchorage’s trend as well as the fact that they seemed to have issues reaching out to indigenous D-leaning voters in western AK.
That’s true.
Although I do have this strange feeling Native Americans will swing to Trump. Probably wouldn’t change the race unless it’s somehow extremely close in AK, which would mean Trump is DOA anyways.

Why do you think Native Americans would swing to Trump?
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YE
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« Reply #45 on: October 16, 2020, 05:19:50 PM »

The more I look at the cross tabs of this poll, the better it looks for Biden. LeanvR.

What part looks good for him? The very high # of undecideds+third-party support among younger voters is not good for Biden. He's doing well with women, but I don't think it'll be enough to make the state competitive on election day.

That’s good for him because it’s a sign he has room to grow.
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YE
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« Reply #46 on: October 16, 2020, 05:22:41 PM »

The more I look at the cross tabs of this poll, the better it looks for Biden. LeanvR.

What part looks good for him? The very high # of undecideds+third-party support among younger voters is not good for Biden. He's doing well with women, but I don't think it'll be enough to make the state competitive on election day.

Anchorage’s trend as well as the fact that they seemed to have issues reaching out to indigenous D-leaning voters in western AK.
That’s true.
Although I do have this strange feeling Native Americans will swing to Trump. Probably wouldn’t change the race unless it’s somehow extremely close in AK, which would mean Trump is DOA anyways.

Why do you think Native Americans would swing to Trump?

That’s not the worst take given HRC did not exactly light the world on fire with them, with a lot of third party voters, though Biden in general seems to have consolidated most third party voters in 2016.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #47 on: October 16, 2020, 06:24:05 PM »

I do expect Trump to win the state by a margin slightly smaller than Dunleavy's 2018 result (5-6 points), but there are some real warning signs for Republicans in AK, MT, and KS (and UT, to a lesser extent) as far as the distant or not-so-distant future is concerned. Those states' D swings/trends can’t just be chalked up to a built-in anti-incumbency bias.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #48 on: October 17, 2020, 12:05:14 AM »

The more I look at the cross tabs of this poll, the better it looks for Biden. LeanvR.

What part looks good for him? The very high # of undecideds+third-party support among younger voters is not good for Biden. He's doing well with women, but I don't think it'll be enough to make the state competitive on election day.

Anchorage’s trend as well as the fact that they seemed to have issues reaching out to indigenous D-leaning voters in western AK.

It's not just Western Alaska....Native-American communities in Alaska, actually run something maybe around 18% of the total statewide population, and typically tend to be more concentrated in rural parts of the State outside of Metro Anchorage.

Here's a Census demographic map of Alaska by the "Other category"

into

I am not an expert on Native voting patterns in Alaska, let alone comparative turnout levels by election, but it is certainly plausible that if you look at the Census Map breakdown by "Other" when it comes to race & ethnicity, you will see solid Native majorities just about everywhere in the North and West (Even the North Slope is ~53% Native), until you roll into Fairbanks to the North and down to Mat-Su and the Kodiak Inlet. Meanwhile you have another large Native American belt which stretches down from the Copper River into the Alaskan panhandle where you see a significant presence of Native Populations who were trading partners and had similar cultures and languages to many of the Native populations of BC, Washington, and NW Oregon....

So agree with your broader argument as to what it might take for an AK-PRES flip...

Wish we knew more about what's going on in Mat-Su.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #49 on: October 17, 2020, 12:45:51 AM »

This is another one of those instances, like South Carolina, where the Atlas of today may be disappointed by this poll but the Atlas of 2019 would've been speechless
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