TX-PPP: Cornyn +3

[VAR]

Oct 14-15, 712 voters

Cornyn 49% (+5)
Hegar 46% (+6)

Favorabilities:
Cornyn: 39/37 (+2)
Hegar: 32/29 (+3)

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/TexasSenatePollOctober2020-1.pdf

[wbrocks67]

With a Trump +8 sample too. That influx of cash is coming at just the right time for Hegar.

[Punxsutawney Phil]

With a Trump +8 sample too. That influx of cash is coming at just the right time for Hegar.

indeed it is.

[VAR]

Interesting — 11% of Trump 2016 voters are in Hegar’s camp, but you also have 11% of Clinton 2016 voters choosing Cornyn.

[Calthrina950]

Interesting — 11% of Trump 2016 voters are in Hegar’s camp, but you also have 11% of Clinton 2016 voters choosing Cornyn.

I'm not sure how to explain the former (seniors and Hispanics?) but the latter are those Romney-Clinton suburbanites that have received so much attention. It seems obvious to me that there are some voters opting for downballot Republicans even while supporting Biden at the presidential level.

[Mr.Barkari Sellers]

Cornyn only up 3 is not gonna hold up in a blue wave

[Blair]

Cornyn unlike most of the other republican senators is actually relatively well known & liked in his state

[wbrocks67]

Cornyn unlike most of the other republican senators is actually relatively well known & liked in his state

His fav is only +2

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Changes with September 1-2 poll although that was for the Texas Democratic Party and this one is not.

Not sure 5% (-10)

[Sir Mohamed]

Lean R

I think there is going to be some ticketsplitting in TX and Cornyn will get some Biden voters, mostly disaffected GOPers who want a check on a Biden Admin. I think Cornyn will win by 4-7 pts while Biden will either lose by 2-3 pts or eke out a 0.5 win.

[MT Treasurer]

Cornyn unlike most of the other republican senators is actually relatively well known & liked in his state

Is he, though? I’ve always had the impression that he’s fairly anonymous and vulnerable to the "Washington relic/party hack beholden to establishment and corporate interests" line of attack (which might explain why some Trump voters are choosing Hegar).

[MillennialModerate]

If that poll was accurate then Biden is leading in Texas. I tend to not believe it but if it’s true then Biden has a shot in Texas

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If that poll was accurate then Biden is leading in Texas. I tend to not believe it but if it’s true then Biden has a shot in Texas

More likely is that Hegar is (very predictably) closing the gap between her own candidacy and Biden's.

Previous polls indicate Cornyn isn't that well-known; he's in a large, racially diverse and growing state and isn't particularly high-profile. He is not going to get more crossover support than Susan Collins.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Big if true, but I'd like further confirmation

[Roll Roons]

One thing I noticed is that the gender balance in the poll is 53% female and 47% male - Cornyn is losing women by 5 but winning men by 14. A turnout gap of six percentage points seems like a lot to me, so my guess is that he's actually up by around 4-5.

[Blair]

Cornyn unlike most of the other republican senators is actually relatively well known & liked in his state

His fav is only +2

I said relatively!

[Xing]

Given how TX polling was in 2018, Cornyn should be worried. I think TX is a Toss-Up at the presidential level, so a tie or narrow Biden lead in this poll wouldn't surprise me. Lean R, and the EV so far is suggesting that Cornyn is far from safe.

[Calthrina950]

If that poll was accurate then Biden is leading in Texas. I tend to not believe it but if it’s true then Biden has a shot in Texas

More likely is that Hegar is (very predictably) closing the gap between her own candidacy and Biden's.

Previous polls indicate Cornyn isn't that well-known; he's in a large, racially diverse and growing state and isn't particularly high-profile. He is not going to get more crossover support than Susan Collins.

As I've noted previously, Cornyn has never had impressive electoral performances. He "only" got 54-55% of the vote in both 2002 and 2008, underperforming George W. Bush and John McCain, and won by the landslide margin that he did in 2014 only because he was facing an unknown opponent, benefited from low turnout, and was running in a wave midterm year for his party. So it shouldn't be surprising that he's not significantly outperforming Trump.

And as I've also said before, Hegar isn't the strongest or best known candidate that Democrats could have run-Beto O'Rourke (if he had not run for President) or one of the Castro brothers would be making this even more of a race. But she isn't a terrible candidate either, and did well at the debate. So I'm not surprised to see that she's holding her own, and of course she's benefiting from the national environment.

[ExSky]

One thing I noticed is that the gender balance in the poll is 53% female and 47% male - Cornyn is losing women by 5 but winning men by 14. A turnout gap of six percentage points seems like a lot to me, so my guess is that he's actually up by around 4-5.

Polling weighs for gender no?  Just taking those numbers would result in a net of Cornyn +3.93, so basically +4

[MATTROSE94]

Lean R

I think there is going to be some ticketsplitting in TX and Cornyn will get some Biden voters, mostly disaffected GOPers who want a check on a Biden Admin. I think Cornyn will win by 4-7 pts while Biden will either lose by 2-3 pts or eke out a 0.5 win.

I think that John Cornyn wins by about 10% or more. MJ Hegar is a very weak candidate and the Democrats really blew it by nominating her instead of Julian or Joaquin Castro.

[brucejoel99]

The fact that Cornyn still isn't hitting 50% is a good sign that Hegar can pull it off if turnout is high enough. Cruz was hitting an average of 51% in his polls against Beto, while Beto was around 44%. The polls were exactly right on Cruz's 51%, except Beto basically gobbled up all of the undecideds & nearly hit 49%.

Turnout has been exceeding 2016-levels (where turnout was a shade under 60%) through 3 days of early in-person voting thus far. With 15 more days of early voting still to go plus Election Day to boot, it's time to realize that both Trump & Cornyn are in serious trouble.

[Hope For A New Era]

With a Trump +8 sample too. That influx of cash is coming at just the right time for Hegar.

Wow. Watch Hegar win without ever leading in a poll.

[MT Treasurer]

1) What exactly is "With a Trump +8 sample too" supposed to mean? He won the state by 9 in 2016...

2) 

I think that John Cornyn wins by about 10% or more. MJ Hegar is a very weak candidate and the Democrats really blew it by nominating her instead of Julian or Joaquin Castro.

I love your meme posts.

[MATTROSE94]

1) What exactly is "With a Trump +8 sample too" supposed to mean? He won the state by 9 in 2016...

2) 

I think that John Cornyn wins by about 10% or more. MJ Hegar is a very weak candidate and the Democrats really blew it by nominating her instead of Julian or Joaquin Castro.

I love your meme posts.

MJ Hegar is objectively a terrible candidate and there is a lot of ticket-splitting between Joe Biden and John Cornyn in the Dallas, Fort Worth, and Houston suburbs. Also, John Cornyn is a fairly moderate Republican, as he spearheaded efforts to make Juneteenth a federal holiday, supports making lynching a federal hate crime, and is relatively moderate on immigration than other Republican Senators. Even though I would still vote for MJ Hegar if I lived in Texas, I recognize that she stands little chance against John Cornyn, who will likely cruise to re-election despite President Donald Trump losing Texas.

[MATTROSE94]

MJ Hegar is objectively a terrible candidate and there is a lot of ticket-splitting between Joe Biden and John Cornyn in the Dallas, Fort Worth, and Houston suburbs. Also, John Cornyn is a fairly moderate Republican, as he spearheaded efforts to make Juneteenth a federal holiday, supports making lynching a federal hate crime, and is relatively moderate on immigration than other Republican Senators. Even though I would still vote for MJ Hegar if I lived in Texas, I recognize that she stands little chance against John Cornyn, who will likely cruise to re-election despite President Donald Trump losing Texas.

How much will Theresa Greenfield win by if Cornyn wins TX by double digits?

I feel that Theresa Greenfield is running a much stronger campaign than MJ Hegar. Also, Joni Ernst is much more conservative than John Cornyn and isn't really running as strong of a campaign as him.