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October 24, 2020, 01:42:48 AM
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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE, ON Progressive)
  MI - Trafalgar: Trump+1
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Author Topic: MI - Trafalgar: Trump+1  (Read 1392 times)
n1240
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« on: October 16, 2020, 07:57:54 AM »
« edited: October 16, 2020, 08:55:38 AM by n1240 »



Trump 47
Biden 46
Jorgensen 3

10/11-14, 1025 LV
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You Reap What You Sow
Rafe
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« Reply #1 on: October 16, 2020, 08:01:22 AM »

Incumbent president winning less then he got four years ago, haha.
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Horus
Sheliak5
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« Reply #2 on: October 16, 2020, 08:01:30 AM »

Might be too Trump friendly but helps explain why Biden is heading to Michigan.
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Ye Olde Europe
Old Europe
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« Reply #3 on: October 16, 2020, 08:02:05 AM »

Thanks Trollfalgar.
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Buzz
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« Reply #4 on: October 16, 2020, 08:04:28 AM »

To the average it goes.  Clear outlier, but the same thing was said 4 years ago. 
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Secular Rural Whites for Biden
Beef
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« Reply #5 on: October 16, 2020, 08:04:49 AM »

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BlueSwan
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« Reply #6 on: October 16, 2020, 08:11:21 AM »

Hmmmm...they needed to gift Trump more than the usual 5-6 points this time I guess.
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Ljube
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« Reply #7 on: October 16, 2020, 08:13:40 AM »

Trafalgar has been consistent in their polling of Michigan.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #8 on: October 16, 2020, 08:16:06 AM »

If D's do lose its Pelosi"s fault for holding onto stimulus too long, Biden is favored but not inevitable
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Chocolate Thunder
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« Reply #9 on: October 16, 2020, 08:18:19 AM »

Every other polls of Michigan they have is either Biden +1 or Trump +1
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ExSky
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« Reply #10 on: October 16, 2020, 08:22:00 AM »

To the average it goes.  Clear outlier, but the same thing was said 4 years ago. 

Buzz having to desperately cling on to trafalgar polling this past week has been nothing short of hilarious
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Buzz
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« Reply #11 on: October 16, 2020, 08:30:43 AM »

To the average it goes.  Clear outlier, but the same thing was said 4 years ago. 

Buzz having to desperately cling on to trafalgar polling this past week has been nothing short of hilarious
In what way, shape, or form do I appear desperate?  I have said Trump will lose since July.  If being reasonable is the new “desperate” then so be it.  I called it an outlier, but not adding the only polling company to predict the state correctly in 2016 to the average would be stupid. 
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ExSky
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« Reply #12 on: October 16, 2020, 08:33:29 AM »

To the average it goes.  Clear outlier, but the same thing was said 4 years ago. 

Buzz having to desperately cling on to trafalgar polling this past week has been nothing short of hilarious
In what way, shape, or form do I appear desperate?  I have said Trump will lose since July.  If being reasonable is the new “desperate” then so be it.  I called it an outlier, but not adding the only polling company to predict the state correctly in 2016 to the average would be stupid. 

you went from comparing Quinnipiac to Trafalgar saying it was trash to all of a sudden being reaaaaaaaaally sympathetic to Trafalgar.

you reek of desperation.
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Buzz
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« Reply #13 on: October 16, 2020, 08:36:36 AM »

To the average it goes.  Clear outlier, but the same thing was said 4 years ago. 

Buzz having to desperately cling on to trafalgar polling this past week has been nothing short of hilarious
In what way, shape, or form do I appear desperate?  I have said Trump will lose since July.  If being reasonable is the new “desperate” then so be it.  I called it an outlier, but not adding the only polling company to predict the state correctly in 2016 to the average would be stupid. 

you went from comparing Quinnipiac to Trafalgar saying it was trash to all of a sudden being reaaaaaaaaally sympathetic to Trafalgar.

you reek of desperation.
Nah fam.  Trafalgar doesn’t deserve that comparison.  I have pivoted to comparing Quinnipiac to Rasmussen.  Any company that shows a double digit lead for a candidate in Florida should be banned on spot.  Straight up clownery.
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The scissors of false economy
Nathan
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« Reply #14 on: October 16, 2020, 08:37:19 AM »

I don't think Buzz is desperate exactly, but he clearly Wants To Believe in the same way that I Want To Believe the outliers showing Biden up by mid-teens nationally.
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Buzz
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« Reply #15 on: October 16, 2020, 08:38:06 AM »

I don't think Buzz is desperate exactly, but he clearly Wants To Believe in the same way that I Want To Believe the outliers showing Biden up by mid-teens nationally.
fair enough comparison.
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ExSky
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« Reply #16 on: October 16, 2020, 08:46:48 AM »

To the average it goes.  Clear outlier, but the same thing was said 4 years ago. 

Buzz having to desperately cling on to trafalgar polling this past week has been nothing short of hilarious
In what way, shape, or form do I appear desperate?  I have said Trump will lose since July.  If being reasonable is the new “desperate” then so be it.  I called it an outlier, but not adding the only polling company to predict the state correctly in 2016 to the average would be stupid. 

you went from comparing Quinnipiac to Trafalgar saying it was trash to all of a sudden being reaaaaaaaaally sympathetic to Trafalgar.

you reek of desperation.
Nah fam.  Trafalgar doesn’t deserve that comparison.  I have pivoted to comparing Quinnipiac to Rasmussen.  Any company that shows a double digit lead for a candidate in Florida should be banned on spot.  Straight up clownery.

There you go again.
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Rep. Spark
Spark498
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« Reply #17 on: October 16, 2020, 08:51:15 AM »



Trump 47
Biden 46
Jorgensen 3

10/11-14, ? LV

Donald Trump will win Michigan again while losing PA.
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Beida
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« Reply #18 on: October 16, 2020, 08:53:45 AM »

Trump is obviously not winning MI if he's losing nationally by more than 5%. He's also not winning MI while Biden is performing very well in WI, MN, and PA. Not happening.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #19 on: October 16, 2020, 08:55:28 AM »

Sure.jan
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Electoral Titan Kim Reynolds
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« Reply #20 on: October 16, 2020, 08:56:35 AM »

ExSky: *accuses Buzz of being a hack*
Also ExSky: “Peters is going to win by double digits” when, of course, no recent high-quality poll has shown him leading by double digits
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #21 on: October 16, 2020, 09:00:22 AM »

Biden in a close enough election will win MI by 4, Cook PVI had it, Kerry barely won MI in 2004 in a close enough election and won it by 4, but this isn't 2016
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #22 on: October 16, 2020, 09:16:32 AM »

October 11-14
1025 likely voters
MoE: 2.97%
Changes with September 26-28 poll for the Restoration PAC (R)

Trump 47% (-1)
Biden 46% (-3)
Jorgensen 3% (+1)
Someone else 2% (+1)
Hawkins 2% (+1)
Undecided 2% (n/c)
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Gass3268
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« Reply #23 on: October 16, 2020, 09:25:29 AM »

October 11-14
1025 likely voters
MoE: 2.97%
Changes with September 26-28 poll for the Restoration PAC (R)

Trump 47% (-1)
Biden 46% (-3)
Jorgensen 3% (+1)
Someone else 2% (+1)
Hawkins 2% (+1)
Undecided 2% (n/c)

I thought this felt closer than their last poll.
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SirWoodbury
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« Reply #24 on: October 16, 2020, 09:26:53 AM »

Good.
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