ME-PAR: Biden +10, +4 in ME-02

[VAR]

Biden 50%
Trump 40%

ME-02 (n=300):
Biden 47%
Trump 43%

https://bangordailynews.com/2020/10/15/politics/sara-gideon-leads-susan-collins-by-7-points-in-new-maine-poll/

[Sir Mohamed]

Obama-Trump voters are coming home to Dems. Great to see.

[Crumpets]

300 is a pretty small sample size, but this could be enough to flip ME-2 to Biden on the 538 model.

[kph14]

This poll seems to be sampled 50% ME-1 and 50% ME-2. This should make the statewide numbers lean right as ME-2 always has lower turnout

[ProgressiveModerate]

Good poll for Biden, but it suggests that he isn't doing very well in ME-1, assuming the sample is roughly 50-50

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

October 2-6

Statewide
600 likely voters
MoE: 4.5%

First ballot: margin rounds to Biden +11%
Biden 50%
Trump 40%
All other candidate 6%
Undecided 4%

ME-01
300 likely voters
MoE: 6.4%

First ballot: margin rounds to Biden +19%
Biden 54%
Trump 37%
Other 7%

ME-02
300 likely voters
MoE: 6.4%

First ballot: margin rounds to Biden +4%
Biden 47%
Trump 43%
Other 6%

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I really doubt Biden is winning ME02

[Rand]

I really doubt Biden is winning ME02

Patient Zero got lucky once in ME-02.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

One of the most secular CDs in the nation is turning against a President who's trying to ram a theocrat into the Supreme Court? Shocking.

[Figueira]

District results are always going to have a lower sample size than the statewide results in the same poll. That said, the results for statewide and ME-1 seem reasonable in this poll, so it follows that the results in ME-2 could be accurate as well. Throw it in the average. ME-2 is the sort of place Biden should be expected to improve based on other polls.

[Badger]

I really doubt Biden is winning ME02

Why? IIRC just about every poll there showz Biden narrowly winning.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I really doubt Biden is winning ME02

Yes he will, every poll has him ahead

[Xing]

The statewide number is believable, but I really doubt ME-02 will only vote 6 points right of the state. That would be less than in 2012. Biden probably needs to win ME by at least 13-15% to have a chance in ME-02 (not like he needs it, though.)

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Maine President by Pan Atlantic SMS Group on 2020-10-06

Summary: D: 50%, R: 40%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[SInNYC]

The statewide number is believable, but I really doubt ME-02 will only vote 6 points right of the state. That would be less than in 2012. Biden probably needs to win ME by at least 13-15% to have a chance in ME-02 (not like he needs it, though.)

ME-02 voted 6.7 points more R than ME in 2012 (Obama +9 vs Obama +15). In 2008, it was 6.1 (Obama+11 vs Obama +17).

 I know 2020 isnt 2012 or 2008, but Hillary was also particularly ill-matched for ME-02.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The statewide number is believable, but I really doubt ME-02 will only vote 6 points right of the state. That would be less than in 2012. Biden probably needs to win ME by at least 13-15% to have a chance in ME-02 (not like he needs it, though.)

ME-02 voted 6.7 points more R than ME in 2012 (Obama +9 vs Obama +15). In 2008, it was 6.1 (Obama+11 vs Obama +17).

 I know 2020 isnt 2012 or 2008, but Hillary was also particularly ill-matched for ME-02.

Obama was well suited for ME-02 throughout. Additionally, things like Iraq (New England time-honored dove streak) as well as pocketbook issues made 2008 bad for Rs. In 2012 Mr. 47% was a bad fit for ME-02. The well-suited thing flipped completely in 2016 and gave Rs a strong win. Now we have a situation where both candidates can be seen as suiting ME-02.

[NOVA Green]

As I have stated multiple times elsewhere on Atlas / Talk Elections, ME-02 is a prime Trump > Biden flip with White Working Class Catholic voters, many of whom are heavily French / French-Canadian Ancestry swinging hard back to the DEMs on Bread and Butter economic issues, where Trump's failed attempt at a trade war with Canada from pulp & paper industry, to fishing wars has failed to deliver on his populist economic policies, and additionally and perhaps even more importantly severed traditional cross-border movements between the US & Canada as a direct result of his failed response to the COVID-19 Pandemic.

We are talking about a part of the country where we got folks split on both sides of the border and deep knitted roots where on the Canadian side you have an active independence movement because of the historical pattern of racism against the French-Canadian population under the rule of the English Crown, and on the Southern Side of the border lingering resentment against treatment from Yankee WASPs who have historically dominated Maine politics.

"Catholic Joe" is a good fit for ME-02 and his infrastructure policy positions alone, as well as his support for expanding affordable medical care should appeal to a place where 41% of the total population is over the age of 50 Years.