Current Tradesports numbers

[zorkpolitics]

Glad to see my pick for 2008, Romney has the most positive momentum, moving up more than any other candidate

[Mr. Morden]

Romney is moving up at the expense of Allen.  Feingold is moving up at the expense of Clinton.

We should also track the "winning individual" odds.  Right now, these are the odds on who's going to go all the way and win the White House:

McCain 23.5
Clinton 19.9
Giuliani 8.5
Edwards 4.7

Strangely, those are the only candidates listed so far.  Why do they list Edwards, but not Warner or Gore, who they list as more likely to win the nomination?

Anyway, if you divide the "winning individual" odds by the odds of that candidate winning their party's nomination, then you should get the probability that the candidate will win the general, *if* they get the nomination (this is assuming none of them will go 3rd party).  For these four candidates, that gives:

McCain 59%
Clinton 48%
Giuliani 53%
Edwards 57%

I think that's too high for Clinton.  I wouldn't give her a 48% chance of winning the general if she's nominated.  I might quibble about the others too, but I don't think they're as far off as her number.

[© tweed]

Hillary continues a slow descent.

Democrats

Clinton 39.4 (-1.1)
Warner 17.5 (-1.0)
Gore 17.2 (+2.2)
Edwards 9.1 (+.1)
Kerry 3.5 (+.2)
Bayh 3.0 (+.8)
Feingold 2.7 (-0.9)
Others at or under 2.1

Republicans

McCain 40.0 (+2.0)
Giuliani 16.1 (+.1)
Romney 15.3 (+2.1 )
Allen 11.5 (-1.5)
Rice 5.1 (-.8)
Gingrich 4.0 (+0.8)
Others at or under 2.0

[Joel the Attention Whore]

We should soon start to see Romney take Allen's place as the primary conservative candidate.  Expect Romney's stock to rise quite a bit over the next few months, barring a macaca-like incident.  He will easily surpass Giulani, whose stock should lower gradually the more voters get to know about him.  Gingrich's should also rise.

On the other side, expect Clinton's to gradually come down, as it has been doing.  I think Warner is mostly hype.  The Democrats in Congress are getting most of the attention.  Warner, a former one-term Governor, isn't actively involved in the anti-Bush movement taking place in Congress.  If either Bayh or Feingold starts hitting the talk shows and bashing Bush, which I anticipate at least one of them will do, expect their stock to rise.

[Mr. Morden]

The most underrated Republican on Tradesports is Huckabee.  There's no way he should be behind both Rice and Gingrich, and no way that Allen is more than 3 times as likely as to win the nomination as he is.  In truth, I think all of the potential candidates with high name recognition are overrated on Tradesports, and those that are relatively unknown nationally are correspondingly underrated.  Clinton, Gore, Edwards, Kerry, Giuliani, Rice, and Gingrich are all rated too high.  McCain should also be somewhat lower, but not by as much as most of the others.

Incidentally, they now have numbers on the chances for going all the way and winning the White House for 8 different candidates.  It breaks down like this:

McCain 23.5%
Clinton 18.0%
Giuliani 13.0%
Gore 10.5%
Warner 8.2%
Romney 8.0%
Edwards 5.5%
Allen 5.0%

Again, I think the well known candidates are all rated too high here (except maybe McCain), while the lesser known candidates are underrated.  In a recent poll in this forum, Warner received the most votes on the question of "which individual is most likely to win the White House", so I assume this means that many of you are now going to buy shares of Warner, as he's a steal at only 8.2% chance of winning. 

You can also divide these probabilities by the Tradesports probabilities of each candidate winning the nomination, to get the probability that the candidate will win the general, *if* they get the nomination.  That gives:

McCain 59%
Clinton 43%
Giuliani 74%
Gore 61%
Warner 48%
Romney 49%
Edwards 69%
Allen 49%

Those are some rather crazy numbers.  Edwards would have a 69% chance of winning the general, but Warner only a 48% chance???

[Tender Branson]

Gore a 61% chance to win the General and Mark Warner just 48% ?

Just ridiculous ...

[© tweed]

the contract volumes on the individual general election contracts are still very low so I wouldn't put all that much stock into the numbers, especially when you're trying to derive something from another contract.

[Mr. Morden]

The most underrated Republican on Tradesports is Huckabee.  There's no way he should be behind both Rice and Gingrich, and no way that Allen is more than 3 times as likely as to win the nomination as he is.

I should have put my money where my mouth was, and bought some Huckabee shares, as I could have made a lot of $.  Huckabee has surged in the last week, though he's still a bit behind Allen.  Allen is still in fourth place (at about 7.5-8.0% chance of winning) for the GOP nomination, despite the fact that many are now saying that his presidential hopes are "finished".  I think that's going way too far.  He still has a *chance* at winning.  It's just much less than it used to be.