ME-PAR: Gideon +7 | Golden +27

[VAR]

Gideon 47%
Collins 40%
Savage 5%
Linn 2%
Undecided 6%

ME-02 (n=300)
Golden 60%
Crafts 33%

https://bangordailynews.com/2020/10/15/politics/sara-gideon-leads-susan-collins-by-7-points-in-new-maine-poll/

[MT Treasurer]

Golden isn’t going to win by more than Pingree, and ME-02 will be more than 7 points to the right of the state (yes, I’m factoring in margin of error/confidence intervals/etc. here). Still, will be fun to watch Golden's support completely collapse like Collins' in two years.

[Bootes Void]

Damn Golden is crushing it

[Charlotca]

Doesn't seem that Collins' empty posturing on the Supreme Court has won her back much.

[wbrocks67]

Favorabilities:
Sara Gideon: 52/44 (+8)
Susan Collins: 44/54 (-10)

[Gracile]

These ME-02 numbers seem a bit D-friendly (across all three contests), but it's good for Gideon that she's only underperforming Biden by 3/Collins is only matching Trump's vote share.

[Sir Mohamed]

Small sample, but good to see another polls from ME. This is actually the one I'm most worried about from CO, AZ and NC as far as 50th seat is concerned. If polls are accurate, IA would be the 51st and give us some more comfort. MT, the GAs and SC are nice backups or the road to a solid working majority if Dems sweep the map. That said, the more seats we can add this year, the more safe the majority is beyond Biden's (1st) term. If we get to 52, Dems definitely keep the majority to at least 2026.

[Brittain33]

[ProgressiveModerate]

Glad to see Gideon is running pretty close with Biden. Everyone freaking out about this last week was just because we lacked polling, and when that happens, people here like to go off on tangents about how there’s going to be all these Biden - Collins voters

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Golden isn’t going to win by more than Pingree, and ME-02 will be more than 7 points to the right of the state (yes, I’m factoring in margin of error/confidence intervals/etc. here). Still, will be fun to watch Golden's support completely collapse like Collins' in two years.

It's not happening in an 8 Percent unemployment Recession, Collins and Ernst are DOA

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Junk it. Again, Golden would be lucky to get +10. Margin I'd probably Trump +2 in ME 02, Golden +6-7

[Calthrina950]

Remember that Lisa Savage-the Green candidate-has made it clear that she wants her voters to mark Gideon as their second choice on their ballots. Combine her 5% with the 47% Gideon is garnering here, and that gives you 53%-a majority. Of course, not all of Savage's voters are going to follow that path, but it's hard for me to see Collins being able to overcome this deficit at this juncture.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

October 2-6

Statewide
600 likely voters
MoE: 4.5%
Changes with March 4-13, 2019

First ballot: margin rounds to Gideon +7% (was Collins +22%)
Gideon 47% (+18)
Collins 40% (-11)
Savage 5% (not previously included)
Linn 2% (not previously included)
Undecided 6% (-2)

"An independent or third party candidate" previously at 12%

With second choices of Linn/Savage voters (est.)
Gideon 49%
Collins 41%
Linn 2%
Savage 1%
Undecided 8%

ME-01
300 likely voters
MoE: 6.4%

First ballot: margin rounds to Pingree +20%
Pingree 55%
Allen 35%
Undecided 11%

ME-02
300 likely voters
MoE: 6.4%

First ballot: margin rounds to Golden +28% (!)
Golden 60%
Crafts 33%
Undecided 7%

[Figueira]

Glad to see Gideon is running pretty close with Biden. Everyone freaking out about this last week was just because we lacked polling, and when that happens, people here like to go off on tangents about how there’s going to be all these Biden - Collins voters

Collins's best hope was Maine continuing to trend right from 2016, but all signs indicate that isn't happening this time. She can still win, but it's pretty unlikely.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Glad to see Gideon is running pretty close with Biden. Everyone freaking out about this last week was just because we lacked polling, and when that happens, people here like to go off on tangents about how there’s going to be all these Biden - Collins voters

Collins's best hope was Maine continuing to trend right from 2016, but all signs indicate that isn't happening this time. She can still win, but it's pretty unlikely.

If anything, ME might be one of the states that swings hardest left from 2016. Democrats had a great midterm there, and tends to be very reactive to the national environment.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Junk it. Again, Golden would be lucky to get +10. Margin I'd probably Trump +2 in ME 02, Golden +6-7

Biden is gonna win ME2

[Senator Incitatus]

-snipped Blanche memes-

Fun fact: Blanche Lincoln's 21-point loss was the largest by an incumbent since William Hathaway's 22-pointer... in Maine. Bill Cohen won that race and was succeeded by Susan Collins.

(I don't think this race is going to be anywhere near a Blanching.)

[MT Treasurer]

Glad to see Gideon is running pretty close with Biden. Everyone freaking out about this last week was just because we lacked polling, and when that happens, people here like to go off on tangents about how there’s going to be all these Biden - Collins voters

Collins's best hope was Maine continuing to trend right from 2016, but all signs indicate that isn't happening this time. She can still win, but it's pretty unlikely.

I actually think it’ll trend Republican again (Biden +9 nationally, +7-8 in Maine), just not nearly as strongly as she needed it to.

[President Johnson]

Wow, what's going on with Golden? He's some electoral super titan? That's not the first poll he's way ahead.

Also optimistic Susan Collins will be voted out at this point. Go Sara!

[Figueira]

Glad to see Gideon is running pretty close with Biden. Everyone freaking out about this last week was just because we lacked polling, and when that happens, people here like to go off on tangents about how there’s going to be all these Biden - Collins voters

Collins's best hope was Maine continuing to trend right from 2016, but all signs indicate that isn't happening this time. She can still win, but it's pretty unlikely.

I actually think it’ll trend Republican again (Biden +9 nationally, +7-8 in Maine), just not nearly as strongly as she needed it to.

I should have said swing, not trend. Maine trending Republican is still a possibility; it would just require Maine polls to be slightly more favorable to Democrats than national polls. But that doesn't help Collins much unless they're way off.

[MT Treasurer]

Glad to see Gideon is running pretty close with Biden. Everyone freaking out about this last week was just because we lacked polling, and when that happens, people here like to go off on tangents about how there’s going to be all these Biden - Collins voters

Collins's best hope was Maine continuing to trend right from 2016, but all signs indicate that isn't happening this time. She can still win, but it's pretty unlikely.

I actually think it’ll trend Republican again (Biden +9 nationally, +7-8 in Maine), just not nearly as strongly as she needed it to.

I should have said swing, not trend. Maine trending Republican is still a possibility; it would just require Maine polls to be slightly more favorable to Democrats than national polls. But that doesn't help Collins much unless they're way off.

Fair enough, I agree with your overall point. It wasn’t a bad bet (there’s not much else she could have done, honestly), but yeah, she pretty much needs the polls to be way off at this point. I think she can survive a Biden +5-6 win under some circumstances, but anything worse than that makes it nearly impossible.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

ACB is gonna be one of the most Conservative justice on the Crt and it's not helping Collins. She is to the right of Kavanaugh