SC-NYT/Siena: Graham +6
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  SC-NYT/Siena: Graham +6
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Author Topic: SC-NYT/Siena: Graham +6  (Read 1456 times)
MT Treasurer (Daines's Brain)
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« on: October 15, 2020, 12:16:07 PM »

46% Lindsey Graham (R, inc.)
40% Jaime Harrison (D)

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redjohn
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« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2020, 12:17:55 PM »

Unfortunate for Harrison. I'm not sure even those record fundraising numbers can save him here.
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Sestak
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« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2020, 12:18:55 PM »

Harrison at 78 among black voters? Junk!
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New York En Marche!
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« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2020, 12:21:28 PM »

Definitely looking like a reach. Still possible but unlikely. At least Graham will give up Judiciary chair and will hopefully act a little less awful in a post-Trump world.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2020, 12:23:51 PM »

This is a clear outlier. Marist is good but let's not pretend that they can't put out some questionable results (Hurd +15 anyone?).
I guess we'll see soon enough.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2020, 12:24:06 PM »

Graham winning females? 16% of 18-29 undecided? 12% of blacks undecided? Harrison with a +16 lead among Indies but still down 6?

Call me skeptical.
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Senator Incitatus
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« Reply #6 on: October 15, 2020, 12:37:28 PM »

Consistent with the only other non-partisan poll this month (albeit Morning Consult). I think this is about where the race is, potentially a little closer, with Harrison having more growth potential. Still Lean R, closer to Likely.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2020, 12:47:40 PM »

Harrison at 78 among black voters? Junk!

We could move him up to 95% and hed still lose, though.
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #8 on: October 15, 2020, 12:53:31 PM »

Damn.

Sorry to say but this was obvious
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #9 on: October 15, 2020, 01:13:56 PM »

Call me crazy but I like this poll.

Obviously they're not pushing their undecideds, and the AA number is junk. But Bledsoe at 4%?Huh Love that!
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Red Wall
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« Reply #10 on: October 15, 2020, 01:21:45 PM »

Harrison had to nationalize the race and now his best case is running 3 points ahead of Biden. Very likely they are only tenths off each other.

Also his propping of the constitution party candidate hurt him, voters don't fall for these tactics anymore.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #11 on: October 15, 2020, 01:24:40 PM »

Marist has Biden up 11 we should wait for the Marist poll
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DrScholl
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« Reply #12 on: October 15, 2020, 01:35:38 PM »

Harrison had to nationalize the race and now his best case is running 3 points ahead of Biden. Very likely they are only tenths off each other.

Also his propping of the constitution party candidate hurt him, voters don't fall for these tactics anymore.

Then how come the Constitution Party candidate is getting 4%? It's not even really a trick since plenty of conservative who hate Graham were going to vote Constitution Party anyway.
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Bootes Void
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« Reply #13 on: October 15, 2020, 01:36:50 PM »

Marist has Biden up 11 we should wait for the Marist poll
what other marist poll?
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #14 on: October 15, 2020, 01:37:03 PM »

You know Graham is in trouble when this is the of poll.
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2016
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« Reply #15 on: October 15, 2020, 01:37:46 PM »

South Carolina Voters:


Check Mate, MISTER "Socialist" Harrison. SC Voters want ACB confirmed by a big margin.

GAME OVER!

I expect this to be confirmed in other Southern States like NC and GA, possibly even AZ.

Say hello Lindsey again Smiley
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #16 on: October 15, 2020, 01:42:10 PM »

This was easy to see a mile away
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SN2903
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« Reply #17 on: October 15, 2020, 01:43:26 PM »

Safe R
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Xing
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« Reply #18 on: October 15, 2020, 01:46:50 PM »

I wouldn't completely count Harrison out yet (and I'd like to see more polls), but SC was never going to be easy.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #19 on: October 15, 2020, 01:50:21 PM »

South Carolina Voters:


Check Mate, MISTER "Socialist" Harrison. SC Voters want ACB confirmed by a big margin.

GAME OVER!

I expect this to be confirmed in other Southern States like NC and GA, possibly even AZ.

Say hello Lindsey again Smiley

But Graham is clearly not picking out all of the voters who want confirmation. Confirmation is at +22 but Graham is only at +6. And Graham should be winning by 20-30% right now considering the state.
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One Term Floridian
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« Reply #20 on: October 15, 2020, 01:52:22 PM »

The tabs might be iffy, but a Graham +6 is just about what I expect from this race. Hope I'm wrong, but I don't think Harrison will be able to find enough R leaning voters in the state to actually flip to him.

His best hope is depressed turnout among the Republican base somehow, which I doubt with Trump being on the ballot.

Likely R
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2016
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« Reply #21 on: October 15, 2020, 01:55:04 PM »

South Carolina Voters:


Check Mate, MISTER "Socialist" Harrison. SC Voters want ACB confirmed by a big margin.

GAME OVER!

I expect this to be confirmed in other Southern States like NC and GA, possibly even AZ.

Say hello Lindsey again Smiley

But Graham is clearly not picking out all of the voters who want confirmation. Confirmation is at +22 but Graham is only at +6. And Graham should be winning by 20-30% right now considering the state.
That is nonsense from you considering that Trump is on the Ballot and Harrison has nationalized the Race.

Graham isn't like for example IN Governor Eric Holcomb, who managed to localize the Race and is up 30 over his D Challenger.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #22 on: October 15, 2020, 01:58:20 PM »

South Carolina Voters:


Check Mate, MISTER "Socialist" Harrison. SC Voters want ACB confirmed by a big margin.

GAME OVER!

I expect this to be confirmed in other Southern States like NC and GA, possibly even AZ.

Say hello Lindsey again Smiley

But Graham is clearly not picking out all of the voters who want confirmation. Confirmation is at +22 but Graham is only at +6. And Graham should be winning by 20-30% right now considering the state.
That is nonsense from you considering that Trump is on the Ballot and Harrison has nationalized the Race.

Graham isn't like for example IN Governor Eric Holcomb, who managed to localize the Race and is up 30 over his D Challenger.

If this race is all about the court confirmation as you are implying that it is than Graham should be up 20-30%.
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MR. ANTHONY DEVOLDER
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« Reply #23 on: October 15, 2020, 02:52:11 PM »

A friendly reminder that Beto outperformed his polling by 5 points.

Getting a serious TX-SEN 2018 vibe here.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #24 on: October 15, 2020, 03:01:31 PM »
« Edited: October 15, 2020, 04:53:58 PM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/sc100920-crosstabs/7b3ac01b2be42e57/full.pdf

October 9-15
605 likely voters
MoE: 4.5%

Graham 46%
Harrison 40%
Bledsoe 4%
Not voting for Senate 2%
Someone else 0% (but some voters)
Not sure/Refused 8%
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