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October 23, 2020, 07:08:54 PM
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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE, ON Progressive)
  Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising MI/OH/PA/WI: Biden +9 | Trump +3 | Biden +7 | Biden +8
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Author Topic: Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising MI/OH/PA/WI: Biden +9 | Trump +3 | Biden +7 | Biden +8  (Read 732 times)
Gass3268
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« on: October 15, 2020, 12:11:10 PM »

Michigan:

Biden- 52% (-1)
Trump- 43% (+1)

Ohio:

Biden- 47% (+2)
Trump- 50% (+2)

Pennsylvania:

Biden- 52% (-)
Trump- 45% (-)

Wisconsin:

Biden- 53% (+2)
Trump- 45% (+1)

Source

Source is currently a tweet, will edit with something more official when I have it.
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darthpi
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« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2020, 12:16:46 PM »

All reasonable.
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hyouzel
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« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2020, 12:18:18 PM »

The reality of the 335 map becomes ever clearer. (2016+MI+WI+PA+FL+AZ+NC)

Ohio will be within 1 point either way, and simply based on demographics I think it will go to Trump.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2020, 12:27:38 PM »

The reality of the 335 map becomes ever clearer. (2016+MI+WI+PA+FL+AZ+NC)

Ohio will be within 1 point either way, and simply based on demographics I think it will go to Trump.
[/quote


All Biden needs is 278
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kireev
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« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2020, 12:29:48 PM »

The reality of the 335 map becomes ever clearer. (2016+MI+WI+PA+FL+AZ+NC)

Ohio will be within 1 point either way, and simply based on demographics I think it will go to Trump.

In that case Biden will also certainly win NE-02.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2020, 02:48:34 PM »

October 8-11
Changes with September 11-15 polls

MI
https://drive.google.com/file/d/191PrxEKwpYvRBlp0qfofqUwB9tlQvxgE/view
543 likely voters
MoE: 4.6%

Biden 52% (-1)
Trump 43% (+1)
Someone else 4% (+1)
Unsure 2% (-1)

OH
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1SiBrhpzSQ8OoNVPbI-YdVZalG4MaPVDO/view
586 likely voters
MoE: 4.2%

Trump 50% (+2)
Biden 47% (+2)
Someone else 3% (-2)
Unsure 1% (n/c)

PA
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1kioj7cMIsxOhN81x_i1ZPNrgbClGmy95/view
600 likely voters
MoE: 4.2%

Biden 52% (n/c)
Trump 45% (n/c)
Someone else 2% (+1)
Unsure 1% (-1)

WI
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1dfFWrhyponUB4qf3gWklaNNlWy1OhWJR/view
560 likely voters
MoE: 4.4%

Biden 53% (+2)
Trump 45% (+1)
Someone else 2% (n/c)
Unsure 1% (-1)
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mijan
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« Reply #6 on: October 15, 2020, 03:17:48 PM »

Great number for Joe. I am still optimistic about OH.  Biden can still win it.
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The scissors of false economy
Nathan
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« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2020, 03:37:17 PM »

Toplines seem about right. Biden holding steady at 52-53 in the MI-PA-WI trio is great to see.
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hyouzel
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« Reply #8 on: October 15, 2020, 04:22:14 PM »

The reality of the 335 map becomes ever clearer. (2016+MI+WI+PA+FL+AZ+NC)

Ohio will be within 1 point either way, and simply based on demographics I think it will go to Trump.

In that case Biden will also certainly win NE-02.

Yeah that's included in that total, I just didn't list it
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Catalyst138
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« Reply #9 on: October 15, 2020, 04:31:18 PM »

With all this talk about NC and FL and OH itís easy to forget that Biden doesnít need any of that to win. If he holds on to the Rust belt trio, heís the victor. And currently thereís no reason to believe he will lose any of those 3.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #10 on: October 15, 2020, 06:03:08 PM »

I'm losing hope that Biden could win Ohio. I am still somewhat okay with it though because if he wins without the state it will finally no longer be considered a bellwether. I welcome that. But I also welcome Biden winning by as much as possible.
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President Pericles
Pericles
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« Reply #11 on: October 15, 2020, 06:06:53 PM »

The reality of the 335 map becomes ever clearer. (2016+MI+WI+PA+FL+AZ+NC)

Ohio will be within 1 point either way, and simply based on demographics I think it will go to Trump.

I think it's the 350 map, maybe the 388 map if TX polls underrate Biden. I'm open to the possibility that it's the 368, 369, or 375 map, but most likely Trump overperforms the polls slightly in those states.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #12 on: October 15, 2020, 07:45:36 PM »

Campaign meltdown.
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You Reap What You Sow
Rafe
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« Reply #13 on: October 15, 2020, 10:06:02 PM »

Pretty cool knowing Joe can win with just MI, PA, and WI. No wonder the MAGA crowd is sweating.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #14 on: October 16, 2020, 12:09:23 PM »

New Poll: Michigan President by Civiqs on 2020-10-11

Summary: D: 52%, R: 43%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #15 on: October 16, 2020, 12:09:28 PM »

New Poll: Ohio President by Civiqs on 2020-10-11

Summary: D: 47%, R: 50%, U: 1%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #16 on: October 16, 2020, 12:09:34 PM »

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Civiqs on 2020-10-11

Summary: D: 52%, R: 45%, U: 1%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #17 on: October 16, 2020, 12:09:40 PM »

New Poll: Wisconsin President by Civiqs on 2020-10-11

Summary: D: 53%, R: 45%, U: 1%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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