2020 Swing-o-meter Projection

[Senator-elect Spark]

If ya'll recall my projection from 2016: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=238305.msg5103086#msg5103086

I was on target. I'm working on one for this cycle based on that calculator.

President Donald J. Trump (R-FL) / Vice President Michael R. Pence (R-IN) - 294 electoral votes, 48.6%
Fmr. Vice President Joseph R. Biden (D-DE) / Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA) - 244 electoral votes, 49.1%
Others - 0 electoral votes, 2.3%

My projection this time has lower turnout across the board due to coronavirus. Biden is undoubtedly a better candidate than Hillary Clinton and will improve with non-college educated voters. I am unsure of his appeal with college educated voters but my best estimate is that he will perform on par with or better than Clinton with that group. Biden's weakness is with Hispanic voters who I believe will be his worst minority group. The sizeable third party share from 2016 will shrink this time around, with Trump gaining among Johnson voters and Biden winning some Republican defectors. I expect the President to narrowly win Independents again.
Demographic group breakdown-

Non-college educated white: 68% R, 47% turnout
College-educated white: 52% D, 65% turnout
Black: 89% D, 49% turnout
Hispanic/Latino: 65% D, 39% turnout
Asian/Other: 71% D, 37% turnout

Closest states:

PA- 49.1% R, 48.9% D
WI- 49.5% R, 48.6% D
NV- 49.9% D, 47.5% R
VA- 50.2% D, 47.7% R
NH- 49.4% R, 48.4% D
ME-02- 49.5% R, 46.7% D
CO- 50.1% D, 47.0% R
MN- 49.3% D, 47.8% R
IA- 50.3% R, 47.3% D
MI- 50.0% D, 48.4% R
OH- 50.7% R, 47.1% D
OR- 50.5% D, 45.4% R,
FL- 50.4% R, 48.2% D
NC- 51.3% R, 47.0% D
ME- 51.2% D, 45.1% R
GA- 52.2% R, 45.8% D
TX- 55.4% R, 42.7% D
AZ- 53.3% R, 44.4% D

Based on the calculator, I think CO, NH, VA, NV, OR, AZ, and TX will be off

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I don't want to sound dismissive because like you were kinda incredibly accurate in 2016, but I'm not sure that using that calculator again is a good thing. It was thought for 2016. Many things have changed or could have changed in these four years that might make it unreliable.
Also why for Hispanics and for Asians did you out a separate percentage for "R" and for Trump? What does that mean?

[South Dakota Democrat]

Is this a joke?

[S019]

Biden is winning more than 63% of Hispanics, he'll probably win close to 70%. Also when I put those numbers into the calculator, it resulted in a 274 to 264 Dem EV win. Also why exactly do you think minority turnout will tank?

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Looking at 2016, your margins for the rust belt/PV where a bit off which means Biden would probably win this, with the MOE adjusted.

[Senator-elect Spark]

I don't want to sound dismissive because like you were kinda incredibly accurate in 2016, but I'm not sure that using that calculator again is a good thing. It was thought for 2016. Many things have changed or could have changed in these four years that might make it unreliable.
Also why for Hispanics and for Asians did you out a separate percentage for "R" and for Trump? What does that mean?

It may be a useful tool as a baseline. And I think Trump will do worse with those groups.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Biden is winning more than 63% of Hispanics, he'll probably win close to 70%. Also when I put those numbers into the calculator, it resulted in a 274 to 264 Dem EV win. Also why exactly do you think minority turnout will tank?

I think minority turnout drops because they will have to pick between the lesser of two evils. Also, the coronavirus disproportionately affects minorities more severely.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I don't want to sound dismissive because like you were kinda incredibly accurate in 2016, but I'm not sure that using that calculator again is a good thing. It was thought for 2016. Many things have changed or could have changed in these four years that might make it unreliable.
Also why for Hispanics and for Asians did you out a separate percentage for "R" and for Trump? What does that mean?

It may be a useful tool as a baseline. And I think Trump will do worse with those groups.

Will do worse with those groups compared to what?

Trump won less than 30% of both Hispanics and Asians in 2016.

[Hammy]

I'm on a hurricane forum, and in 2013 the hurricane season essentially failed to materialize, and one poster obsessed over shear and troughing. Because of unique circumstances (not to get too sciencey but the thermohaline circulation weakened, long story short) and that poster got overconfident to the point of spamming the board every season as if they were some sage that was never wrong.

This is what OP's post feels like to me.

[Senator-elect Spark]

I don't want to sound dismissive because like you were kinda incredibly accurate in 2016, but I'm not sure that using that calculator again is a good thing. It was thought for 2016. Many things have changed or could have changed in these four years that might make it unreliable.
Also why for Hispanics and for Asians did you out a separate percentage for "R" and for Trump? What does that mean?

It may be a useful tool as a baseline. And I think Trump will do worse with those groups.

Will do worse with those groups compared to what?

Trump won less than 30% of both Hispanics and Asians in 2016.

Fixed.

[Burke Bro]

Looks like an interesting project. The map itself isn’t impossible, but the numbers you have for the individual states look like something from a 2008 or 2012 prediction rather than a 2020 one. Demographics and voter patterns have changed a lot since then. Remember that if Obama and Romney ran against each other just 8 years earlier, in 2004, and did just as well among the same voter groups as they did in 2012, Romney would’ve won handily. 538’s swing tool uses 8 year old exit polls from 2012, so I don’t think it holds much weight today.

[Horus]

Flip PA and maybe NH and that'll probably be the final map.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

This seems even more optimistic for Trump than 2016. A map & result like this would lead me to believe that Biden was an even worse candidate than Hillary and Trump was destined for re-election no matter what happened in the country.

Either folks are keeping themselves pessimistic due to 2016, the electorate is gonna look more 2012 than 2018, Harris (or whomever is picked) was a Palin-level mistake of a running mate, Biden is gonna have a horrible go of things after the DNC and/or there's gonna be a ridiculous amount of ticket-splitting in MI/MN/NC (Among other states you noted).

I just can't see Trump not only maintaining, but expanding his margins in the majority of swing states (Plus doing significantly better in states he came close in). This will be interesting to look back at when the race is called though and to see how much egg I have to clean off

[ProgressiveModerate]

The 538 swing-o-meter is kind of outdated at this point. The map is certainly possible, but seems unlikely given Trump's current slump that he hasn't recovered.

[BaldEagle1991]

This would be a nightmare scenario for Trump haters.

I mean the nation is rewarding a President for botched a COVID-19 pandemic response.

[Alben Barkley]

This would be a nightmare scenario for Trump haters.

I mean the nation is rewarding a President for botched a COVID-19 pandemic response.

It would be a nightmare scenario for the country, the world, and the human race. Not just “Trump haters.”

It’s not gonna happen though.

Flip PA and maybe NH and that'll probably be the final map.

LOL

We’re REALLY still doing the “Wisconsin is way to the right of MI and PA!” circlejerk?

REALLY?

REALLY???

I will NEVER cease to be amazed at this completely fact-free, feelings-based stupidity. It was always incredibly idiotic, and now that we’ve gotten multiple polls showing if anything it might be MORE left than the others this year, with Biden routinely cracking 50 and double digit leads, it’s just off the charts stupid.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

hahahahahahahahaha

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

rofl

[AGA]

lower turnout across the board due to coronavirus

lol

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Biden is winning more than 63% of Hispanics, he'll probably win close to 70%. Also when I put those numbers into the calculator, it resulted in a 274 to 264 Dem EV win. Also why exactly do you think minority turnout will tank?

"Ay ay ay, woah-oh-oh-oh-oh, yo voy a votar... por JOE BIDEN" 🤡

The heavy R swings in Miami-Dade, among both Sunbelt and ACELA corridor Latino groups, and in highly tourism-dependent areas in general. It's impossible to flip AZ and GA while keeping FL R in Cook's 2020 Demographic Swingometer.

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

• White non-college: 65-35 Trump, 64% turnout
• White college: 55-45 Biden, 72% turnout
• Black: 88-12 Biden, 68% turnout
• Latino/Hispanic: 65-35 Biden, 64% turnout
• Asian + Other: 66-34 Biden, 60% turnout

Result: 335 Biden (81.52 mil) - 203 Trump (73.16 mil)
2016 + NE-2 + MI + PA + WI + AZ + GA + FL

[bagelman]

OP's scenario is basically Biden as Hillary trading New Hampshire for Michigan with much reduced polarizing. A possible map only with a totally different GOP incumbent.



khuzifenq's map only gets Florida wrong