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October 24, 2020, 01:28:13 AM
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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE, ON Progressive)
  MI - RMG Reseach/PoliticalIQ: Biden +6% (strong Democratic: Biden +12, strong Republican: Biden +2)
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Author Topic: MI - RMG Reseach/PoliticalIQ: Biden +6% (strong Democratic: Biden +12, strong Republican: Biden +2)  (Read 315 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
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« on: October 15, 2020, 10:59:27 AM »

http://politicaliq.com/2020/10/15/battleground-mi-biden-48-trump-42/

October 8-13
800 likely voters

Standard results
Biden 48%
Trump 42%
Jorgensen 2%
Hawkins 1%
Other 1%
Not sure 5%

Strong Democratic turnout model
Biden 51%
Trump 39%
Jorgensen 2%
Hawkins 1%
Other 1%
Not sure 5%

Strong Republican turnout model
Biden 46%
Trump 44%
Jorgensen 2%
Hawkins 1%
Other 1%
Not sure 5%
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TC 25
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« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2020, 11:04:02 AM »

These kinds of polls are useless.   Pollster hedging their bet and mapping out a broad range of results to cover their behind.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2020, 11:04:30 AM »

These kinds of polls are useless.   Pollster hedging their bet and mapping out a broad range of results to cover their behind.

The standard result is at least somewhat useful even if you're no fan of the turnout models.
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Ljube
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Posts: 5,170
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

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« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2020, 11:06:50 AM »

Why are more and more pollsters starting to doubt their turnout models?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2020, 11:11:58 AM »

Why are more and more pollsters starting to doubt their turnout models?


Because we're in an unprecedented situation with unpredictable effects on turnout?
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SirWoodbury
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Political Matrix
E: 1.48, S: 1.30

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« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2020, 12:39:40 PM »

Biden under 50%, this is starting to look more and more like 2016.
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You Reap What You Sow
Rafe
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« Reply #6 on: October 15, 2020, 12:45:54 PM »

Nice. Iím starting to warm up to Rasmussen.
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Lief 🐋
Lief
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Dominica


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« Reply #7 on: October 16, 2020, 03:44:30 PM »

New Poll: Michigan President by RMG Research on 2020-10-13

Summary: D: 48%, R: 42%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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