Biden is at exactly 50 in nearly all Arizona polls
Does this alter your gut feeling that Arizona may be friendlier to Trump than expected, Buzz?
it does not. I had a feeling that Monmouth wasn’t going to be friendly for Trump today, hence why I made the update last night (didn’t want people to think I was hack trolling). I think Arizona will be the closest state on 11/3 and Trump will win by 0.2%.
I can say with almost complete confidence that AZ will not be the closest state after all the votes are counted.
Demographically, it is terrible for Trump. A core segment of the historically GOP base here is openly hostile toward him (the Flake/McCain wealthy & educated suburbanites), and then you have a rapidly growing group of Hispanic/young voters.
If McSally couldn't win in 2018, I don't know how Trump suddenly does here.