IA-DFP: Greenfield +4

[wbrocks67]

It also appears undecideds are breaking for Greenfield:

In Iowa, Democrat Theresa Greenfield is going up against incumbent Republican Joni Ernst. We find
that Greenfield has a four point lead over Ernst (47 percent Greenfield, 43 percent Ernst). This puts
Greenfield running five points ahead of Biden in the state. Compared to our last poll of this race in
July, where we found Greenfield with a two point lead and 11 percent of voters not sure, these results
suggest undecided voters are making up their minds in Greenfield’s favor. Libertarian Rick Stewart and
Independent Suzanne Herzog enjoy three percent support (2 percent Steward, 1 percent Herzog).

[wbrocks67]

I'll believe Ernst losing when I see it. I think she wins by 3-4 points as of now, since IA polls systematically underestimate Republicans. Also, Greenfield and Biden are both at 47% in this poll, so that's probably her ceiling.

IA polls are not off 7-8 pts. Greenfield's average right now is +4.8. The polling in 2018 was off R+3.7, so that would still give Greenfield a 1% win.