TX-PPP: Cornyn +3

[WD]

MJ Hegar is objectively a terrible candidate and there is a lot of ticket-splitting between Joe Biden and John Cornyn in the Dallas, Fort Worth, and Houston suburbs. Also, John Cornyn is a fairly moderate Republican, as he spearheaded efforts to make Juneteenth a federal holiday, supports making lynching a federal hate crime, and is relatively moderate on immigration than other Republican Senators. Even though I would still vote for MJ Hegar if I lived in Texas, I recognize that she stands little chance against John Cornyn, who will likely cruise to re-election despite President Donald Trump losing Texas.

How much will Theresa Greenfield win by if Cornyn wins TX by double digits?

I feel that Theresa Greenfield is running a much stronger campaign than MJ Hegar. Also, Joni Ernst is much more conservative than John Cornyn and isn't really running as strong of a campaign as him.

What’s your prediction for MT-SEN?

[MATTROSE94]

MJ Hegar is objectively a terrible candidate and there is a lot of ticket-splitting between Joe Biden and John Cornyn in the Dallas, Fort Worth, and Houston suburbs. Also, John Cornyn is a fairly moderate Republican, as he spearheaded efforts to make Juneteenth a federal holiday, supports making lynching a federal hate crime, and is relatively moderate on immigration than other Republican Senators. Even though I would still vote for MJ Hegar if I lived in Texas, I recognize that she stands little chance against John Cornyn, who will likely cruise to re-election despite President Donald Trump losing Texas.

How much will Theresa Greenfield win by if Cornyn wins TX by double digits?

I feel that Theresa Greenfield is running a much stronger campaign than MJ Hegar. Also, Joni Ernst is much more conservative than John Cornyn and isn't really running as strong of a campaign as him.

What’s your prediction for MT-SEN?

Steve Bullock by about 2% if I had to guess. Probably about the same for Theresa Greenfield.

[7,052,770]

Hot take:

If Biden wins Texas, it's better than 50-50 he pulls Hegar over the top too.

[S019]

Hot take:

If Biden wins Texas, it's better than 50-50 he pulls Hegar over the top too.

This is honestly looking more and more like a cold take by the day. Currently I think there's probably only a 1% split before the races and I think both Biden and Hegar win, if the election was today.

[Torrain]

Tossup Texas at the Presidential and Senate level.

I never thought the day would arrive.

[Ferguson97]

October 16, 2018 RCP: Cruz+7

Final 2018 result: Cruz+2.6

October 16, 2020 RCP: Cornyn+7.6

Just saying

[MATTROSE94]

October 16, 2018 RCP: Cruz+7

Final 2018 result: Cruz+2.6

October 16, 2020 RCP: Cornyn+7.6

Just saying

Probably Cornyn by about 3.2 then.

[Beet]

1) What exactly is "With a Trump +8 sample too" supposed to mean? He won the state by 9 in 2016...

2)  

I think that John Cornyn wins by about 10% or more. MJ Hegar is a very weak candidate and the Democrats really blew it by nominating her instead of Julian or Joaquin Castro.

I love your meme posts.

MJ Hegar is objectively a terrible candidate and there is a lot of ticket-splitting between Joe Biden and John Cornyn in the Dallas, Fort Worth, and Houston suburbs. Also, John Cornyn is a fairly moderate Republican, as he spearheaded efforts to make Juneteenth a federal holiday, supports making lynching a federal hate crime, and is relatively moderate on immigration than other Republican Senators. Even though I would still vote for MJ Hegar if I lived in Texas, I recognize that she stands little chance against John Cornyn, who will likely cruise to re-election despite President Donald Trump losing Texas.

Cornyn pretends to be a lot more moderate than he actually is. His proposal on Juneteenth is a pretty transparent extension of his re-election campaign. He never made it an issue until this year despite being in the Senate for 18 years. And it's a good bet he knew it would fail. He also claims to support things like DACA but never did anything in the Senate to secure passage. He has a habit of claiming to support things that he knows won't pass. I'm not saying Hegar is greater either but a vote is a vote.

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Texas Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2020-10-15

Summary: D: 46%, R: 49%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details