NYT/Siena-SC: Trump+8
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Author Topic: NYT/Siena-SC: Trump+8  (Read 1393 times)
WD
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« on: October 15, 2020, 12:14:33 PM »
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Buzz
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« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2020, 12:15:20 PM »
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2020, 12:16:25 PM »
Quote from: Buzz on October 15, 2020, 12:15:20 PM

being up 8 in SC is uh...not good for the GOP
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hyouzel the predictor
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« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2020, 12:16:57 PM »
Unfortunately Graham will be reelected due to the amount of Republicans in SC. Bledsoe might take some votes from Graham but Harrison will not be able to win unfortunately. Harrison's best case scenario is a +0.5 victory at most.
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Devils30
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« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2020, 12:17:15 PM »
Just is not happening for Dems. They can win Georgia and maybe Texas narrowly but S.C. is a bridge too far with its inelastic voting patterns.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2020, 12:18:32 PM »
Quote from: Devils30 on October 15, 2020, 12:17:15 PM
Just is not happening for Dems. They can win Georgia and maybe Texas narrowly but S.C. is a bridge too far with its inelastic voting patterns.

The overreaction to one poll is real! Especially when the two senate candidates are only equalling 86%.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #6 on: October 15, 2020, 12:19:02 PM »
Closer margin than it was in 2008, which was notably not a great year for Republicans.
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VAR
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« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2020, 12:19:24 PM »
B-b-but muh Quinnipiac  Purple heart

Not a good poll for Trump, obviously, given how inelastic this state is. I think Trump wins here by 7-8 points.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #8 on: October 15, 2020, 12:20:30 PM »
No Push Nate is Pissing me off.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #9 on: October 15, 2020, 12:21:18 PM »
Trump will still win, but the undecideds appear to lean more Dem. Younger, blacker, higher education levels, etc.
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VAR
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« Reply #10 on: October 15, 2020, 12:23:05 PM »
Trump +12 sample so add 2 points to Trump

sarcasm
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #11 on: October 15, 2020, 12:24:16 PM »
More yikes for the Trump campaign.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #12 on: October 15, 2020, 12:25:09 PM »

Doesn't work that way.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #13 on: October 15, 2020, 12:29:03 PM »
Dems should invest in SC for the long-term.
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VAR
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« Reply #14 on: October 15, 2020, 12:29:29 PM »

sarcasm
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tagimaucia
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« Reply #15 on: October 15, 2020, 12:32:49 PM »

I guess he's joking, but even if it did work that way... 45/33 = 1.3636.  54.94/40.67 (actual 2016 numbers) = 1.3507.  Pretty dead on.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #16 on: October 15, 2020, 12:47:00 PM »
To quote a term retired after 2016... fools’ gold
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DrScholl
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« Reply #17 on: October 15, 2020, 12:49:37 PM »
This works out to about 2008 numbers, but I think that Biden will match James Smith's 46%. Matching the state's PVI against the 538 average that mean Trump wins this around 50-45 or 51-46, so South Carolina will basically be where Georgia was at in 2016.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #18 on: October 15, 2020, 12:52:36 PM »
Imagine showing someone this thread a year ago with the caveat that the "Not happening" and "Fools Gold" comments are 100% unironic
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #19 on: October 15, 2020, 12:54:02 PM »
Senate results are disappointing, but wow that is a devastating number for Trump.
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Sbane
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« Reply #20 on: October 15, 2020, 02:10:36 PM »
Quote from: Buzz on October 15, 2020, 12:15:20 PM


A six point swing in SC would imply NC, GA and FL flip.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #21 on: October 15, 2020, 02:13:08 PM »
It's unfortunate to see people coming home to Graham, but not too shocking. Biden was never going to win here, but 45-46% is not out of the question.
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Bootes Void
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« Reply #22 on: October 15, 2020, 02:13:58 PM »
SC could be Georgia 2008. we could see 52-47 result for trump when it is all said and done
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ultraviolet
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« Reply #23 on: October 15, 2020, 02:21:45 PM »
Quote from: Buzz on October 15, 2020, 12:15:20 PM


It’s hilarious cause he’s down by the same amount in Michigan.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #24 on: October 15, 2020, 03:00:36 PM »
https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/sc100920-crosstabs/7b3ac01b2be42e57/full.pdf

October 9-15
605 likely voters
MoE: 4.5%

Trump 49%
Biden 41%
Jorgensen 2%
Hawkins 1%
Not voting for President 1%
Someone else 0% (but some voters)
Not sure/Refused 6%
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